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4/9 | 4/11ORL@MIL MEM@CLE PHO@LAC CHA@ATL DAL@MIA TOR@BKN MIN@DEN SAS@OKC

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Magic @ Bucks [ +1.5 / 212.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

April 10, 2024
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)
Magic | 50-39 (56.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (+1.5) a 60.6-41.9% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 212.5 around 4.8-3.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 76.3% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 4.7% chance of going over the total.

Magic Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Magic Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/12	PHI	ORL +6.5 PHI -6.5	215	ORL	-	-	-
4/10	MIL	ORL -1.5 MIL +1.5	212.5	ORL	-	-	-
4/9	HOU [ 118 ]	ORL -2.5 HOU +2.5	214	ORL [ 106 ]	-12	-14.5	+10
4/7	ORL [ 113 ]	ORL -7.5 CHI +7.5	210.5	CHI [ 98 ]	+15	+7.5	+0.5
4/5	CHA [ 124 ]	ORL -11.5 CHA +11.5	205.5	ORL [ 115 ]	-9	-20.5	+33.5
4/3	NOP [ 108 ]	ORL +5 NOP -5	209	ORL [ 117 ]	+9	+14	+16
4/1	ORL [ 104 ]	ORL -16 POR +16	210.5	POR [ 103 ]	+1	-15	-3.5
3/30	ORL [ 118 ]	ORL -13 MEM +13	205.5	MEM [ 88 ]	+30	+17	+0.5
3/29	ORL [ 97 ]	ORL +1.5 LAC -1.5	211.5	LAC [ 100 ]	-3	-1.5	-14.5
3/27	ORL [ 93 ]	ORL -5 GSW +5	217	GSW [ 101 ]	-8	-13	-23

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/12	OKC	MIL +14.5 OKC -14.5	223.5	MIL	-	-	-
4/10	MIL	MIL +1.5 ORL -1.5	212.5	ORL	-	-	-
4/9	MIL [ 104 ]	MIL +2 BOS -2	228	BOS [ 91 ]	+13	+15	-33
4/7	MIL [ 109 ]	MIL -4 NYK +4	220.5	NYK [ 122 ]	-13	-17	+10.5
4/5	MIL [ 111 ]	MIL -15 TOR +15	228.5	TOR [ 117 ]	-6	-21	-0.5
4/3	MIL [ 101 ]	MIL -13.5 MEM +13.5	222	MEM [ 111 ]	-10	-23.5	-10
4/2	WAS [ 117 ]	MIL -13.5 WAS +13.5	228.5	MIL [ 113 ]	-4	-17.5	+1.5
3/30	ATL [ 113 ]	MIL -4 ATL +4	223	MIL [ 122 ]	+9	+5	+12
3/28	NOP [ 107 ]	MIL -2.5 NOP +2.5	226	MIL [ 100 ]	-7	-9.5	-19
3/26	MIL [ 124 ]	MIL -9 LAL +9	232	LAL [ 128 ]	-4	-13	+20

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
4/14	ORL	MIL +4.5 ORL -4.5	214.5	MIL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4/10	MIL	MIL +1.5 ORL -1.5	212.5	ORL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12/21	MIL [ 118 ]	MIL -8.5 ORL +8.5	239	ORL [ 114 ]	+4	-4.5	-7	123	115.1	111.2	3.9	232
11/11	ORL [ 112 ]	MIL -2.5 ORL +2.5	226.5	MIL [ 97 ]	-15	-17.5	-17.5	116.4	100	115.5	-15.5	209
3/7	ORL [ 123 ]	MIL -11 ORL +11	223	MIL [ 134 ]	+11	0	+34	128.4	125.2	115	10.3	257
3/1	MIL [ 139 ]	MIL -8 ORL +8	229	ORL [ 117 ]	+22	+14	+27	124	134.5	113.2	21.3	256
12/5	ORL [ 102 ]	MIL -10.5 ORL +10.5	226.5	MIL [ 109 ]	+7	-3.5	-15.5	123.1	106.3	99.4	6.8	211

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

Isolate games after ASB:

Include regular season:

Include post-season:

Current matchup:

Efficiency

Magic (last 79 games)		Bucks (last 79 games)
0.57 (13)	Win Percentage	0.6 (7)
64.47 (1)	ATS Win%	42.31 (27)
48.1 (21)	OU%	50 (16)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
113.37 (23)	Offensive Rating	118.36 (7)
111.29 (2)	Defensive Rating	115.75 (19)
96.95 (26)	Pace	99.89 (7)
1.68 (27)	A/TO Ratio	2.05 (11)

Four Factors

Magic (last 79 games)		Bucks (last 79 games)
54.13 (15)	EFG%	56.76 (4)
54.28 (13)	EFG% Allowed	53.85 (8)
28.75 (1)	FT Rate	27 (4)
26.42 (24)	FT Rate Allowed	23.4 (8)
25.34 (7)	OReb%	21.83 (25)
21.89 (3)	OReb% Allowed	22.83 (5)
15.09 (26)	TO Rate	12.85 (8)
15.44 (2)	TO Rate Forced	11.96 (30)

Scoring

Magic (last 79 games)		Bucks (last 79 games)
110.46 (25)	PPG	118.98 (4)
108.44 (3)	PPG Allowed	116.35 (21)
18.59 (2)	Pts off TO	14.54 (29)
16.44 (17)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.96 (6)
14.39 (10)	2nd Chance Pts	13.07 (22)
12.12 (2)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (12)
12.44 (26)	Fast Break Pts	12.68 (24)
14.5 (17)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.63 (10)

Inside the Arc

Magic (last 79 games)		Bucks (last 79 games)
44.13 (16)	Paint Attempts	38.49 (29)
41.2 (5)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.46 (21)
58.66 (11)	Paint FG%	61.28 (1)
57.61 (17)	Paint FG% Allowed	57.35 (15)
9.48 (19)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.95 (4)
10.61 (22)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.12 (30)
0.38 (27)	Mid-Range FG%	0.45 (7)
0.43 (22)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (17)

Three Point Shooting

Magic (last 79 games)		Bucks (last 79 games)
8.54 (21)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.13 (5)
8.09 (8)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.85 (4)
36.71 (27)	Corner 3 FG%	41.16 (5)
36.5 (3)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.8 (5)
22.57 (29)	ATB3 Attempts	27.82 (6)
23.88 (3)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.28 (23)
34.9 (21)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (14)
35.9 (15)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.54 (13)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Magic 1h	45-33-1	19-5-0	6-10-0	9-4-0	11-14-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic	46-33	19-5	9-7	9-4	9-17	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bucks 1h	45-32-1	26-11-0	3-1-0	14-15-0	2-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	48-31	26-11	4-0	17-13	1-7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Magic 1h	41-38-0	15-9-0	6-10-0	5-8-0	15-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic	50-28-1	17-7-0	10-6-0	8-5-0	15-10-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	34-39-5	21-13-3	3-1-0	7-20-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	33-45-1	13-23-1	4-0-0	13-17-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Magic 1h	31-47-1	6-18-0	6-10-0	8-5-0	11-14-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic	37-41-1	12-12-0	6-10-0	6-7-0	13-12-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	30-48-0	13-24-0	1-3-0	13-16-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	40-38-1	21-16-0	1-3-0	16-13-1	2-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Magic 1h	32-47-0	11-13-0	7-9-0	5-8-0	9-17-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic	36-41-2	13-11-0	8-6-2	5-8-0	10-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	33-44-1	16-21-0	3-1-0	13-16-0	1-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	39-40-0	20-17-0	2-2-0	14-16-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Magic 1h	31-47-1	6-18-0	6-10-0	6-6-1	13-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic	36-43-0	10-14-0	8-8-0	7-6-0	11-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	37-40-1	15-21-1	1-3-0	17-12-0	4-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	46-31-2	24-13-0	1-3-0	18-10-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	4-4-0 (50%)	4-4-0 (50%)	15-14-0 (51.7%)	4-9-1 (30.8%)	5-14-0 (26.3%)
Magic	0-0-1 (-)	3-1-0 (75%)	16-10-2 (61.5%)	8-6-0 (57.1%)	7-6-0 (53.8%)	8-1-0 (88.9%)	7-3-0 (70%)