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Celtics @ Bucks [ +2 / 228 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

April 9, 2024
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)
Celtics | 80-21 (79.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (+2) a 41.2-25.1% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 228 around 4.6-4.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 55.9% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 4.6% chance of going over the total.

Celtics Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Celtics Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/11	BOS	BOS +3 NYK -3	221.5	NYK	-	-	-
4/9	MIL	BOS -2 MIL +2	228	BOS	-	-	-
4/7	BOS [ 124 ]	BOS -16 POR +16	216	POR [ 107 ]	+17	+1	+15
4/5	BOS [ 101 ]	BOS -10 SAC +10	226	SAC [ 100 ]	+1	-9	-25
4/3	BOS [ 135 ]	BOS -8.5 OKC +8.5	230.5	OKC [ 100 ]	+35	+26.5	+4.5
4/1	CHA [ 104 ]	BOS -17 CHA +17	219	BOS [ 118 ]	+14	-3	+3
3/30	NOP [ 92 ]	BOS -6 NOP +6	223	BOS [ 104 ]	+12	+6	-27
3/28	ATL [ 123 ]	BOS -17.5 ATL +17.5	226	BOS [ 122 ]	-1	-18.5	+19
3/25	ATL [ 120 ]	BOS -12 ATL +12	226	BOS [ 118 ]	-2	-14	+12
3/23	CHI [ 113 ]	BOS -5.5 CHI +5.5	219.5	BOS [ 124 ]	+11	+5.5	+17.5

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/10	MIL	MIL +1.5 ORL -1.5	212.5	ORL	-	-	-
4/9	MIL	MIL +2 BOS -2	228	BOS	-	-	-
4/7	MIL [ 109 ]	MIL -4 NYK +4	220.5	NYK [ 122 ]	-13	-17	+10.5
4/5	MIL [ 111 ]	MIL -15 TOR +15	228.5	TOR [ 117 ]	-6	-21	-0.5
4/3	MIL [ 101 ]	MIL -13.5 MEM +13.5	222	MEM [ 111 ]	-10	-23.5	-10
4/2	WAS [ 117 ]	MIL -13.5 WAS +13.5	228.5	MIL [ 113 ]	-4	-17.5	+1.5
3/30	ATL [ 113 ]	MIL -4 ATL +4	223	MIL [ 122 ]	+9	+5	+12
3/28	NOP [ 107 ]	MIL -2.5 NOP +2.5	226	MIL [ 100 ]	-7	-9.5	-19
3/26	MIL [ 124 ]	MIL -9 LAL +9	232	LAL [ 128 ]	-4	-13	+20
3/24	MIL [ 118 ]	MIL -2.5 OKC +2.5	233	OKC [ 93 ]	+25	+22.5	-22

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
4/9	MIL	MIL +2 BOS -2	228	BOS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/20	BOS [ 122 ]	MIL +8 BOS -8	225.5	MIL [ 119 ]	-3	+5	+15.5	111.7	127.9	131.1	-3.2	241
1/11	MIL [ 135 ]	MIL -2.5 BOS +2.5	247.5	BOS [ 102 ]	+33	+30.5	-10.5	116.9	138.5	104.7	33.9	237
11/22	BOS [ 119 ]	MIL +5 BOS -5	234	MIL [ 116 ]	-3	+2	+1	121.8	114.3	117.3	-3	235
3/30	MIL [ 99 ]	MIL -2.5 BOS +2.5	236.5	BOS [ 140 ]	-41	-43.5	+2.5	119.5	99.4	140.6	-41.2	239
2/14	MIL [ 131 ]	MIL -9.5 BOS +9.5	226	BOS [ 125 ]	+6	-3.5	+30	121.2	117.5	112.1	5.4	231.8
12/25	BOS [ 139 ]	MIL +5.5 BOS -5.5	226.5	MIL [ 118 ]	-21	-15.5	+30.5	121.3	116.8	137.5	-20.8	257

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

Isolate games after ASB:

Include regular season:

Include post-season:

Current matchup:

Efficiency

Celtics (last 78 games)		Bucks (last 78 games)
0.78 (1)	Win Percentage	0.6 (7)
53.33 (10)	ATS Win%	41.56 (28)
52.63 (6)	OU%	50.65 (11)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
123.16 (1)	Offensive Rating	118.36 (6)
111.48 (3)	Defensive Rating	115.75 (18)
97.16 (22)	Pace	99.89 (7)
2.25 (3)	A/TO Ratio	2.05 (11)

Four Factors

Celtics (last 78 games)		Bucks (last 78 games)
57.82 (1)	EFG%	56.76 (4)
52.26 (2)	EFG% Allowed	53.85 (8)
22.36 (25)	FT Rate	27 (4)
18.92 (1)	FT Rate Allowed	23.4 (8)
24.88 (11)	OReb%	21.83 (25)
23.68 (11)	OReb% Allowed	22.83 (5)
12.2 (1)	TO Rate	12.85 (8)
12.29 (29)	TO Rate Forced	11.96 (30)

Scoring

Celtics (last 78 games)		Bucks (last 78 games)
120.57 (2)	PPG	118.98 (4)
109.13 (5)	PPG Allowed	116.35 (21)
15.5 (24)	Pts off TO	14.54 (30)
13.28 (1)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.96 (6)
14.45 (10)	2nd Chance Pts	13.07 (22)
13.65 (11)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (13)
15.38 (10)	Fast Break Pts	12.68 (24)
12.95 (5)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.63 (10)

Inside the Arc

Celtics (last 78 games)		Bucks (last 78 games)
38.65 (29)	Paint Attempts	38.49 (30)
43.72 (15)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.46 (21)
60.87 (3)	Paint FG%	61.28 (1)
54.56 (2)	Paint FG% Allowed	57.35 (15)
9.1 (23)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.95 (4)
11.26 (27)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.12 (30)
0.43 (10)	Mid-Range FG%	0.45 (7)
0.42 (15)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (16)

Three Point Shooting

Celtics (last 78 games)		Bucks (last 78 games)
9.32 (11)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.13 (5)
7.73 (4)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.85 (5)
43.06 (1)	Corner 3 FG%	41.16 (5)
35.17 (1)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.8 (5)
33 (1)	ATB3 Attempts	27.82 (6)
28.67 (29)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.28 (24)
37.73 (4)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (15)
35.56 (13)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.54 (12)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	65-13-0	30-8-0	0-0-0	34-4-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	62-16	35-3	0-0	26-12	1-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bucks 1h	44-32-1	26-11-0	2-1-0	14-15-0	2-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	47-31	26-11	3-0	17-13	1-7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	54-23-1	25-13-0	0-0-0	28-9-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	41-35-2	22-16-0	0-0-0	18-18-2	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	33-39-5	21-13-3	2-1-0	7-20-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	32-45-1	13-23-1	3-0-0	13-17-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	44-33-1	21-17-0	0-0-0	22-15-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	40-37-1	20-18-0	0-0-0	19-18-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	30-47-0	13-24-0	1-2-0	13-16-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	40-37-1	21-16-0	1-2-0	16-13-1	2-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	46-30-2	24-13-1	0-0-0	21-16-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	44-33-1	24-14-0	0-0-0	19-18-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	32-44-1	16-21-0	2-1-0	13-16-0	1-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	39-39-0	20-17-0	2-1-0	14-16-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	32-44-2	15-23-0	0-0-0	15-21-2	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	37-41-0	18-20-0	0-0-0	18-20-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	37-39-1	15-21-1	1-2-0	17-12-0	4-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	46-30-2	24-13-0	1-2-0	18-10-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	4-4-0 (50%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	15-14-0 (51.7%)	4-9-1 (30.8%)	5-14-0 (26.3%)
Celtics	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	1-1-0 (50%)	0-1-0 (0%)	12-10-1 (54.5%)	9-11-1 (45%)	18-12-1 (60%)