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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (-15) a 35.3-66% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 228.5 around 3.7-2.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 43.9% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 4.2% chance of going over the total.


Raptors Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Raptors Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/7TORTOR -4.5
WAS +4.5
231WAS---
4/5MILTOR +15
MIL -15
228.5TOR---
4/3MIN [ 133 ]TOR +15
MIN -15
215.5TOR [ 85 ]-48-33+2.5
4/2TOR [ 111 ]TOR +13
LAL -13
230LAL [ 128 ]-17-4+9
3/31TOR [ 120 ]TOR +11
PHI -11
217.5PHI [ 135 ]-15-4+37.5
3/27TOR [ 101 ]TOR +13.5
NYK -13.5
210.5NYK [ 145 ]-44-30.5+35.5
3/25TOR [ 88 ]TOR +6
BKN -6
216BKN [ 96 ]-8-2-32
3/23WAS [ 112 ]TOR +6
WAS -6
232TOR [ 109 ]-3+3-11
3/22TOR [ 103 ]TOR +15.5
OKC -15.5
231.5OKC [ 123 ]-20-4.5-5.5
3/20TOR [ 89 ]TOR +11.5
SAC -11.5
231SAC [ 123 ]-34-22.5-19

Bucks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/7MILMIL -4
NYK +4
220.5NYK---
4/5MILMIL -15
TOR +15
228.5TOR---
4/3MIL [ 101 ]MIL -13.5
MEM +13.5
222MEM [ 111 ]-10-23.5-10
4/2WAS [ 117 ]MIL -13.5
WAS +13.5
228.5MIL [ 113 ]-4-17.5+1.5
3/30ATL [ 113 ]MIL -4
ATL +4
223MIL [ 122 ]+9+5+12
3/28NOP [ 107 ]MIL -2.5
NOP +2.5
226MIL [ 100 ]-7-9.5-19
3/26MIL [ 124 ]MIL -9
LAL +9
232LAL [ 128 ]-4-13+20
3/24MIL [ 118 ]MIL -2.5
OKC +2.5
233OKC [ 93 ]+25+22.5-22
3/21MIL [ 115 ]MIL -10.5
BKN +10.5
221.5BKN [ 108 ]+7-3.5+1.5
3/20BOS [ 122 ]MIL +8
BOS -8
225.5MIL [ 119 ]-3+5+15.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
4/5MILMIL -15
TOR +15
228.5TOR--------
11/15TOR [ 112 ]MIL -1
TOR +1
225MIL [ 128 ]+16+15+15114.4134.3117.516.8240
11/1TOR [ 130 ]MIL -4
TOR +4
223.5MIL [ 111 ]-19-23+17.5114.7116.1136-19.9241
4/9TOR [ 121 ]MIL +3.5
TOR -3.5
221MIL [ 105 ]-16-12.5+5118.9105.9122.1-16.1226
3/19MIL [ 118 ]MIL -7
TOR +7
234TOR [ 111 ]+70-5116.7121.4114.27.2229
1/17MIL [ 130 ]MIL -1.5
TOR +1.5
221.5TOR [ 122 ]+8+6.5+30.5119.4130.6122.68252
1/4TOR [ 101 ]MIL +5.5
TOR -5.5
223.5MIL [ 104 ]+3+8.5-18.5124.590.888.12.6185.7


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Raptors 1h30-45-110-6-17-15-01-5-012-19-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Raptors 23-5310-73-193-37-240-00-00-00-0
Bucks 1h43-31-125-10-02-1-014-15-02-5-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 47-2926-93-017-131-70-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Raptors 1h35-39-27-8-210-12-01-5-017-14-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Raptors 31-43-28-9-05-17-02-4-016-13-20-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1h32-38-520-12-32-1-07-20-23-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 32-43-113-21-13-0-013-17-03-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Raptors 1h29-45-26-11-011-10-11-5-011-19-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Raptors 38-38-05-12-09-13-05-1-019-12-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1h30-45-013-22-01-2-013-16-03-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 39-36-120-15-01-2-016-13-12-6-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Raptors 1h32-44-07-10-012-10-00-6-013-18-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Raptors 36-39-15-12-09-12-16-0-016-15-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1h31-43-115-20-02-1-013-16-01-6-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 39-37-020-15-02-1-014-16-03-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Raptors 1h34-40-26-11-013-8-13-3-012-18-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Raptors 45-31-08-9-012-10-05-1-020-11-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1h36-38-114-20-11-2-017-12-04-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 44-30-222-13-01-2-018-10-23-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Bucks0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)4-4-0 (50%)3-4-0 (42.9%)15-13-0 (53.6%)4-9-1 (30.8%)5-13-0 (27.8%)
Raptors3-8-0 (27.3%)4-8-0 (33.3%)12-10-2 (54.5%)5-6-0 (45.5%)5-6-0 (45.5%)1-4-0 (20%)1-1-0 (50%)