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76ers @ Grizzlies [ +15 / 214 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

April 6, 2024
Grizzlies | 27-55 (32.9%)
Seventysixers | 50-39 (56.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Grizzlies (+15) a 71.3-73.4% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 214 around 3.9-3.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Grizzlies have a 73.6% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 3.7% chance of going over the total.

Seventysixers Situational Notes

Grizzlies Situational Notes

Seventysixers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/7	SAS	PHI -6 SAS +6	226.5	PHI	-	-	-
4/6	MEM	PHI -15 MEM +15	214	PHI	-	-	-
4/4	MIA [ 105 ]	PHI +3 MIA -3	210	PHI [ 109 ]	+4	+7	+4
4/2	PHI [ 109 ]	PHI -3 OKC +3	219.5	OKC [ 105 ]	+4	+1	-5.5
3/31	TOR [ 120 ]	PHI -11 TOR +11	217.5	PHI [ 135 ]	+15	+4	+37.5
3/29	CLE [ 117 ]	PHI +8 CLE -8	212	PHI [ 114 ]	-3	+5	+19
3/27	PHI [ 107 ]	PHI +6 LAC -6	217.5	LAC [ 108 ]	-1	+5	-2.5
3/25	SAC [ 108 ]	PHI +9 SAC -9	220.5	PHI [ 96 ]	-12	-3	-16.5
3/24	LAC [ 107 ]	PHI +10 LAC -10	214.5	PHI [ 121 ]	+14	+24	+13.5
3/22	LAL [ 101 ]	PHI +8.5 LAL -8.5	228	PHI [ 94 ]	-7	+1.5	-33

Grizzlies Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/9	MEM	MEM +3.5 SAS -3.5	214.5	SAS	-	-	-
4/6	MEM	MEM +15 PHI -15	214	PHI	-	-	-
4/5	MEM [ 108 ]	MEM -1.5 DET +1.5	212.5	DET [ 90 ]	+18	+16.5	-14.5
4/3	MIL [ 101 ]	MEM +13.5 MIL -13.5	222	MEM [ 111 ]	+10	+23.5	-10
4/1	DET [ 108 ]	MEM +2 DET -2	216	MEM [ 110 ]	+2	+4	+2
3/30	ORL [ 118 ]	MEM +13 ORL -13	205.5	MEM [ 88 ]	-30	-17	+0.5
3/27	MEM [ 124 ]	MEM +3.5 LAL -3.5	221.5	LAL [ 136 ]	-12	-8.5	+38.5
3/25	DEN [ 128 ]	MEM +14.5 DEN -14.5	214	MEM [ 103 ]	-25	-10.5	+17
3/22	SAS [ 97 ]	MEM +6.5 SAS -6.5	215.5	MEM [ 99 ]	+2	+8.5	-19.5
3/20	GSW [ 137 ]	MEM +11 GSW -11	218.5	MEM [ 116 ]	-21	-10	+34.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
4/6	MEM	MEM +15 PHI -15	214	PHI	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/6	PHI [ 109 ]	MEM +6.5 PHI -6.5	209.5	MEM [ 115 ]	+6	+12.5	+14.5	119	116	109.9	6.1	224
2/23	PHI [ 110 ]	MEM +3 PHI -3	232	MEM [ 105 ]	-5	-2	-17	119.4	105.5	110.5	-5	215
12/2	MEM [ 117 ]	MEM -4.5 PHI +4.5	218	PHI [ 109 ]	+8	+3.5	+8	118.6	118.4	110.3	8.1	226

Filters

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Efficiency

76ers (last 77 games)		Grizzlies (last 77 games)
0.57 (13)	Win Percentage	0.33 (24)
55.26 (5)	ATS Win%	47.37 (22)
49.35 (14)	OU%	45.45 (26)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
116.9 (14)	Offensive Rating	107.22 (30)
113.79 (11)	Defensive Rating	114.32 (12)
97.54 (18)	Pace	98.19 (16)
2.07 (9)	A/TO Ratio	1.64 (29)

Four Factors

76ers (last 77 games)		Grizzlies (last 77 games)
53.2 (23)	EFG%	50.91 (29)
53.7 (8)	EFG% Allowed	55.13 (19)
26.38 (7)	FT Rate	23.82 (18)
27.13 (26)	FT Rate Allowed	25.04 (18)
24.84 (13)	OReb%	23.82 (19)
25.66 (25)	OReb% Allowed	25.17 (22)
12.24 (2)	TO Rate	15.27 (27)
14.94 (4)	TO Rate Forced	15.31 (3)

Scoring

76ers (last 77 games)		Grizzlies (last 77 games)
114.6 (14)	PPG	105.82 (30)
111.55 (9)	PPG Allowed	112.82 (11)
17.74 (3)	Pts off TO	17.37 (5)
14.35 (2)	Pts off TO Allowed	18.46 (26)
15.04 (6)	2nd Chance Pts	13.44 (18)
13.62 (12)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.98 (18)
15.79 (5)	Fast Break Pts	11.61 (30)
15.39 (25)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	15.07 (23)

Inside the Arc

76ers (last 77 games)		Grizzlies (last 77 games)
45.88 (7)	Paint Attempts	44.09 (16)
44 (18)	Paint Attempts Allowed	42.71 (7)
54.86 (28)	Paint FG%	52.2 (29)
56.9 (14)	Paint FG% Allowed	56.37 (8)
10.2 (13)	Mid-Range Attempts	6.29 (30)
8.84 (4)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	8.79 (3)
0.42 (16)	Mid-Range FG%	0.36 (29)
0.4 (6)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.43 (23)

Three Point Shooting

76ers (last 77 games)		Grizzlies (last 77 games)
7.56 (28)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.72 (9)
8.39 (12)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.93 (7)
39.68 (11)	Corner 3 FG%	34.88 (30)
38.37 (13)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	41.23 (27)
25.67 (16)	ATB3 Attempts	27.8 (7)
25.16 (12)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.34 (24)
35.44 (17)	ATB3 FG%	34.78 (22)
34.66 (5)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	37.02 (25)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Seventysixers 1h	44-32-1	18-10-1	5-4-0	10-6-0	11-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Seventysixers	42-35	20-9	2-7	13-3	7-16	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Grizzlies 1h	27-48-1	5-6-0	9-15-1	1-5-0	12-22-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	27-50	4-7	5-21	3-3	15-19	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Seventysixers 1h	40-34-3	14-14-1	5-4-0	7-7-2	14-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Seventysixers	42-34-1	18-11-0	3-5-1	10-6-0	11-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	33-43-0	5-6-0	13-12-0	1-5-0	14-20-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	36-40-1	3-8-0	10-15-1	3-3-0	20-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Seventysixers 1h	33-42-2	13-15-1	2-7-0	9-7-0	9-13-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Seventysixers	38-39-0	15-14-0	2-7-0	11-5-0	10-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	22-52-2	3-8-0	6-18-1	2-4-0	11-22-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	37-40-0	3-8-0	10-16-0	3-3-0	21-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Seventysixers 1h	34-42-1	15-14-0	2-7-0	8-7-1	9-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Seventysixers	41-36-0	17-12-0	2-7-0	11-5-0	11-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	27-48-1	4-7-0	12-12-1	1-5-0	10-24-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	35-42-0	2-9-0	10-16-0	4-2-0	19-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Seventysixers 1h	41-36-0	17-12-0	3-6-0	10-6-0	11-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Seventysixers	38-39-0	14-15-0	3-6-0	10-6-0	11-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	35-41-0	5-6-0	11-14-0	5-1-0	14-20-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	36-40-1	6-5-0	11-15-0	2-3-1	17-17-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Grizzlies	9-8-0 (52.9%)	10-7-1 (58.8%)	9-9-0 (50%)	5-12-0 (29.4%)	3-3-0 (50%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-1-0 (0%)
Seventysixers	3-1-0 (75%)	4-3-1 (57.1%)	7-9-0 (43.8%)	5-5-0 (50%)	10-8-0 (55.6%)	4-3-0 (57.1%)	9-5-0 (64.3%)