NBA | themoneyballer.com

4/3 | 4/5DEN@LAC PHI@MIA SAC@NYK ATL@DAL GSW@HOU

Already a baller? You're in the right place -- you just need to log in. Not a baller yet, but want access to the world's best dashboard for breaking down a game? Awesome. We have a big blue button for that, too:

Nuggets @ Clippers [ +3.5 / 220.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

April 4, 2024
Clippers | 53-35 (60.2%)
Nuggets | 64-30 (68.1%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Clippers (+3.5) a 60.8-38.1% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 220.5 around 4.4-3.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Clippers have a 69.5% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 4.1% chance of going over the total.

Nuggets Situational Notes

Clippers Situational Notes

Nuggets Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/6	DEN	DEN -11 ATL +11	222.5	ATL	-	-	-
4/4	LAC	DEN -3.5 LAC +3.5	220.5	DEN	-	-	-
4/2	DEN [ 110 ]	DEN -17 SAS +17	223	SAS [ 105 ]	+5	-12	-8
3/31	DEN [ 130 ]	DEN -4.5 CLE +4.5	215.5	CLE [ 101 ]	+29	+24.5	+15.5
3/29	DEN [ 98 ]	DEN -7 MIN +7	212.5	MIN [ 111 ]	-13	-20	-3.5
3/27	DEN [ 97 ]	DEN -7.5 PHO +7.5	226.5	PHO [ 104 ]	-7	-14.5	-25.5
3/25	DEN [ 128 ]	DEN -14.5 MEM +14.5	214	MEM [ 103 ]	+25	+10.5	+17
3/23	POR [ 111 ]	DEN -10 POR +10	209	DEN [ 114 ]	+3	-7	+16
3/21	DEN [ 113 ]	DEN -9.5 NYK +9.5	207.5	NYK [ 100 ]	+13	+3.5	+5.5
3/19	MIN [ 112 ]	DEN -7.5 MIN +7.5	214.5	DEN [ 115 ]	+3	-4.5	+12.5

Clippers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/5	LAC	LAC -12.5 UTA +12.5	223.5	UTA	-	-	-
4/4	LAC	LAC +3.5 DEN -3.5	220.5	DEN	-	-	-
4/2	SAC [ 109 ]	LAC -1.5 SAC +1.5	221.5	LAC [ 95 ]	-14	-15.5	-17.5
3/31	CHA [ 118 ]	LAC -14.5 CHA +14.5	215.5	LAC [ 130 ]	+12	-2.5	+32.5
3/29	ORL [ 97 ]	LAC -1.5 ORL +1.5	211.5	LAC [ 100 ]	+3	+1.5	-14.5
3/27	PHI [ 107 ]	LAC -6 PHI +6	217.5	LAC [ 108 ]	+1	-5	-2.5
3/25	LAC [ 116 ]	LAC -5 IND +5	234	IND [ 133 ]	-17	-22	+15
3/24	LAC [ 107 ]	LAC -10 PHI +10	214.5	PHI [ 121 ]	-14	-24	+13.5
3/22	POR [ 117 ]	LAC -14.5 POR +14.5	215.5	LAC [ 125 ]	+8	-6.5	+26.5
3/20	POR [ 103 ]	LAC -12 POR +12	217	LAC [ 116 ]	+13	+1	+2

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
4/4	LAC	LAC +3.5 DEN -3.5	220.5	DEN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12/6	LAC [ 111 ]	LAC -1.5 DEN +1.5	228.5	DEN [ 102 ]	+9	+7.5	-15.5	113.8	117.1	107.6	9.5	213
11/27	LAC [ 104 ]	LAC -11 DEN +11	217	DEN [ 113 ]	-9	-20	0	114.3	109.2	118.6	-9.4	217
11/14	DEN [ 111 ]	LAC +4.5 DEN -4.5	225.5	LAC [ 108 ]	-3	+1.5	-6.5	109.4	118.5	121.8	-3.3	219
2/26	DEN [ 134 ]	LAC +4 DEN -4	236.5	LAC [ 124 ]	-10	-6	+21.5	117.9	114.3	123.5	-9.2	233.7
1/13	LAC [ 103 ]	LAC -5 DEN +5	221	DEN [ 115 ]	-12	-17	-3	110.9	111.4	124.4	-13	218
1/5	DEN [ 122 ]	LAC +4.5 DEN -4.5	230	LAC [ 91 ]	-31	-26.5	-17	119.1	91.7	122.9	-31.2	213
11/25	LAC [ 104 ]	LAC +4 DEN -4	219	DEN [ 114 ]	-10	-6	-1	109.9	113.6	124.5	-10.9	218

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

Isolate games after ASB:

Include regular season:

Include post-season:

Current matchup:

Efficiency

Nuggets (last 76 games)		Clippers (last 75 games)
0.7 (2)	Win Percentage	0.62 (5)
45.83 (25)	ATS Win%	45.95 (24)
41.89 (29)	OU%	46.58 (24)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
118.59 (6)	Offensive Rating	118.77 (5)
113.02 (10)	Defensive Rating	115.4 (16)
96.91 (26)	Pace	97.22 (21)
2.33 (2)	A/TO Ratio	1.95 (20)

Four Factors

Nuggets (last 76 games)		Clippers (last 75 games)
56.26 (8)	EFG%	56.15 (9)
52.55 (3)	EFG% Allowed	54.06 (12)
22.47 (25)	FT Rate	25.56 (10)
25.37 (21)	FT Rate Allowed	23.57 (9)
25.6 (6)	OReb%	24.37 (16)
24.4 (17)	OReb% Allowed	25.18 (22)
13.08 (10)	TO Rate	13.5 (15)
12.68 (25)	TO Rate Forced	13.39 (20)

Scoring

Nuggets (last 76 games)		Clippers (last 75 games)
115.07 (14)	PPG	115.62 (12)
109.67 (6)	PPG Allowed	112.34 (10)
15.52 (24)	Pts off TO	16.16 (17)
15.98 (14)	Pts off TO Allowed	15.66 (11)
13.67 (14)	2nd Chance Pts	12.68 (24)
13.22 (8)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	14.05 (18)
14.38 (16)	Fast Break Pts	14.78 (13)
13.6 (9)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	14.89 (20)

Inside the Arc

Nuggets (last 76 games)		Clippers (last 75 games)
45.35 (10)	Paint Attempts	42.62 (23)
45.81 (26)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.2 (20)
59.11 (10)	Paint FG%	59.14 (9)
55.16 (5)	Paint FG% Allowed	56.21 (8)
12.32 (3)	Mid-Range Attempts	10.9 (9)
10.6 (22)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9.28 (10)
0.45 (6)	Mid-Range FG%	0.41 (16)
0.4 (5)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (16)

Three Point Shooting

Nuggets (last 76 games)		Clippers (last 75 games)
7.67 (27)	Corner 3 Attempts	8.78 (19)
7.59 (3)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	9.43 (21)
38.65 (18)	Corner 3 FG%	40.97 (6)
37.4 (8)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	37.26 (6)
23.15 (24)	ATB3 Attempts	24.27 (20)
23.73 (2)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	25.87 (16)
37.76 (4)	ATB3 FG%	37.24 (9)
35.07 (8)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	36.12 (16)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nuggets 1h	47-25-4	26-10-2	1-0-0	18-11-0	2-4-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	53-23	30-8	1-0	19-10	3-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Clippers 1h	44-29-2	19-14-0	1-1-0	19-6-2	4-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	47-28	22-11	0-2	21-6	3-9	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nuggets 1h	42-34-0	20-18-0	1-0-0	17-12-0	4-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	34-40-2	19-19-0	1-0-0	10-17-2	4-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers 1h	38-36-1	15-18-0	1-1-0	17-9-1	4-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	34-40-1	15-17-1	0-2-0	14-13-0	4-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nuggets 1h	37-34-5	18-17-3	1-0-0	13-14-2	5-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	31-44-1	16-22-0	1-0-0	11-18-0	3-4-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers 1h	30-45-0	13-20-0	2-0-0	13-14-0	2-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	33-38-4	13-18-2	2-0-0	13-13-1	5-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nuggets 1h	33-42-1	18-20-0	1-0-0	11-17-1	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	35-41-0	19-19-0	1-0-0	11-18-0	4-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers 1h	30-44-1	13-20-0	1-1-0	14-12-1	2-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	37-38-0	14-19-0	1-1-0	17-10-0	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nuggets 1h	37-37-2	15-22-1	0-1-0	17-11-1	5-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	37-37-2	21-17-0	0-1-0	13-14-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers 1h	34-41-0	17-16-0	2-0-0	10-17-0	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	42-33-0	19-14-0	2-0-0	15-12-0	6-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Clippers	0-0-0 (-)	1-1-0 (50%)	2-4-0 (33.3%)	7-6-0 (53.8%)	12-14-0 (46.2%)	9-6-0 (60%)	3-9-1 (25%)
Nuggets	1-0-0 (100%)	1-0-0 (100%)	0-3-0 (0%)	4-4-0 (50%)	12-14-3 (46.2%)	8-10-0 (44.4%)	7-8-1 (46.7%)