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3/31 | 4/2ATL@CHI BOS@CHA POR@ORL BKN@IND PHO@NOP MEM@DET

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Hawks @ Bulls [ -2 / 221.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

April 1, 2024
Bulls | 40-44 (47.6%)
Hawks | 36-47 (43.4%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bulls (-2) a 47.1-44.6% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 221.5 around 4.3-5.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bulls have a 57.2% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 3.8% chance of going over the total.

Hawks Situational Notes

Bulls Situational Notes

Hawks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/3	ATL	ATL -11.5 DET +11.5	223	DET	-	-	-
4/1	CHI	ATL +2 CHI -2	221.5	ATL	-	-	-
3/30	ATL [ 113 ]	ATL +4 MIL -4	223	MIL [ 122 ]	-9	-5	+12
3/28	ATL [ 123 ]	ATL +17.5 BOS -17.5	226	BOS [ 122 ]	+1	+18.5	+19
3/27	ATL [ 120 ]	ATL -10.5 POR +10.5	216	POR [ 106 ]	+14	+3.5	+10
3/25	ATL [ 120 ]	ATL +12 BOS -12	226	BOS [ 118 ]	+2	+14	+12
3/23	ATL [ 132 ]	ATL -8 CHA +8	214	CHA [ 91 ]	+41	+33	+9
3/21	PHO [ 128 ]	ATL +9 PHO -9	225.5	ATL [ 115 ]	-13	-4	+17.5
3/18	LAL [ 136 ]	ATL +9 LAL -9	225	ATL [ 105 ]	-31	-22	+16
3/17	LAC [ 93 ]	ATL +9.5 LAC -9.5	221	ATL [ 110 ]	+17	+26.5	-18

Bulls Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/5	CHI	CHI -1.5 NYK +1.5	212	NYK	-	-	-
4/1	CHI	CHI -2 ATL +2	221.5	ATL	-	-	-
3/31	MIN [ 101 ]	CHI +8.5 MIN -8.5	213.5	CHI [ 109 ]	+8	+16.5	-3.5
3/29	BKN [ 125 ]	CHI -3 BKN +3	216	CHI [ 108 ]	-17	-20	+17
3/27	CHI [ 125 ]	CHI +2.5 IND -2.5	234.5	IND [ 99 ]	+26	+28.5	-10.5
3/25	CHI [ 105 ]	CHI -12.5 WAS +12.5	225	WAS [ 107 ]	-2	-14.5	-13
3/23	CHI [ 113 ]	CHI +5.5 BOS -5.5	219.5	BOS [ 124 ]	-11	-5.5	+17.5
3/21	HOU [ 127 ]	CHI +4 HOU -4	219.5	CHI [ 117 ]	-10	-6	+24.5
3/18	CHI [ 110 ]	CHI -8 POR +8	213	POR [ 107 ]	+3	-5	+4
3/16	CHI [ 127 ]	CHI -9.5 WAS +9.5	223.5	WAS [ 98 ]	+29	+19.5	+1.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
4/17	CHI	CHI -3.5 ATL +3.5	223.5	ATL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4/1	CHI	CHI -2 ATL +2	221.5	ATL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/12	ATL [ 126 ]	CHI +4 ATL -4	238	CHI [ 136 ]	+10	+14	+24	121.8	134	124.2	9.9	262
12/26	CHI [ 118 ]	CHI +2.5 ATL -2.5	237	ATL [ 113 ]	+5	+7.5	-6	113.5	124.7	119.5	5.3	231
4/4	CHI [ 105 ]	CHI -5.5 ATL +5.5	227	ATL [ 123 ]	-18	-23.5	+1	120.3	104.8	122.7	-18	228
1/23	CHI [ 111 ]	CHI -1.5 ATL +1.5	240.5	ATL [ 100 ]	+11	+9.5	-29.5	118.4	112.5	101.4	11.2	211
12/21	ATL [ 108 ]	CHI +5 ATL -5	236	CHI [ 110 ]	+2	+7	-18	119.9	110.1	108.1	2	218
12/11	ATL [ 123 ]	CHI +3.5 ATL -3.5	235.5	CHI [ 122 ]	-1	+2.5	+9.5	122.8	107.9	108.8	-0.9	221.9

Filters

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Efficiency

Hawks (last 74 games)		Bulls (last 75 games)
0.44 (21)	Win Percentage	0.48 (20)
36.49 (30)	ATS Win%	51.35 (14)
53.52 (4)	OU%	56 (2)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
117.19 (13)	Offensive Rating	114.85 (19)
119.36 (27)	Defensive Rating	116.32 (21)
100.08 (6)	Pace	96.28 (29)
1.96 (20)	A/TO Ratio	2.04 (15)

Four Factors

Hawks (last 74 games)		Bulls (last 75 games)
53.95 (17)	EFG%	53.39 (22)
57.24 (29)	EFG% Allowed	55.64 (21)
25.13 (13)	FT Rate	23.59 (19)
24.21 (12)	FT Rate Allowed	25.09 (18)
27.08 (4)	OReb%	25.13 (10)
24.79 (20)	OReb% Allowed	23.65 (12)
13.41 (14)	TO Rate	12.53 (5)
13.99 (11)	TO Rate Forced	14.31 (9)

Scoring

Hawks (last 74 games)		Bulls (last 75 games)
118.33 (6)	PPG	112.27 (22)
120.51 (27)	PPG Allowed	113.71 (15)
17.13 (9)	Pts off TO	17.17 (8)
16.67 (18)	Pts off TO Allowed	15.23 (9)
15.83 (4)	2nd Chance Pts	13.63 (14)
13.67 (13)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.82 (16)
13.37 (21)	Fast Break Pts	12.45 (26)
16.62 (28)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.27 (7)

Inside the Arc

Hawks (last 74 games)		Bulls (last 75 games)
45.78 (7)	Paint Attempts	42.85 (23)
44.88 (22)	Paint Attempts Allowed	38.5 (1)
54.85 (27)	Paint FG%	56.46 (20)
59.81 (27)	Paint FG% Allowed	59.01 (25)
8.99 (23)	Mid-Range Attempts	14.56 (1)
8.89 (4)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9 (6)
0.47 (3)	Mid-Range FG%	0.44 (9)
0.43 (20)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (14)

Three Point Shooting

Hawks (last 74 games)		Bulls (last 75 games)
10.6 (2)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.21 (13)
10.73 (28)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	11.12 (29)
37.97 (22)	Corner 3 FG%	38.54 (20)
40.57 (22)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	41.56 (28)
26.94 (10)	ATB3 Attempts	22.74 (27)
25.46 (14)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	28.18 (26)
35.99 (16)	ATB3 FG%	34.91 (22)
37.79 (27)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.31 (8)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hawks 1h	35-35-4	14-9-2	2-10-1	10-2-1	9-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	34-40	14-11	6-7	7-6	7-16	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bulls 1h	34-40-1	14-7-0	3-13-1	6-4-0	11-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	36-39	11-10	8-9	8-2	9-18	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hawks 1h	37-34-3	14-11-0	4-8-1	8-4-1	11-11-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	27-47-0	9-16-0	6-7-0	4-9-0	8-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	37-36-2	13-8-0	5-11-1	6-4-0	13-13-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	37-37-1	9-12-0	8-8-1	6-4-0	14-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hawks 1h	37-35-2	9-15-1	8-5-0	6-7-0	14-8-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	39-34-1	15-10-0	9-4-0	6-7-0	9-13-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	31-42-2	7-13-1	8-9-0	5-5-0	11-15-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	42-33-0	9-12-0	11-6-0	8-2-0	14-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hawks 1h	38-35-1	10-14-1	8-5-0	6-7-0	14-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	40-34-0	14-11-0	9-4-0	7-6-0	10-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	30-43-2	6-15-0	7-10-0	4-6-0	13-12-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	40-35-0	6-15-0	11-6-0	7-3-0	16-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hawks 1h	36-38-0	11-14-0	7-6-0	5-8-0	13-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	46-27-1	17-8-0	8-5-0	8-4-1	13-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	31-43-1	5-16-0	9-8-0	5-5-0	12-14-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	46-28-1	11-10-0	12-5-0	8-2-0	15-11-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bulls	2-2-0 (50%)	5-5-0 (50%)	14-12-0 (53.8%)	3-4-1 (42.9%)	11-9-0 (55%)	3-2-0 (60%)	0-2-0 (0%)
Hawks	3-0-0 (100%)	2-5-0 (28.6%)	3-9-0 (25%)	8-14-0 (36.4%)	6-13-0 (31.6%)	4-5-0 (44.4%)	1-1-0 (50%)