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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Heat (-2.5) a 39.9-45.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 206.5 around 4.7-3.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Heat have a 43.2% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 5.5% chance of going over the total.


Knicks Situational Notes

Heat Situational Notes

Knicks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/4NYKNYK -3.5
SAC +3.5
215SAC---
4/2MIANYK +2.5
MIA -2.5
206.5NYK---
3/31NYK [ 112 ]NYK -2
OKC +2
217OKC [ 113 ]-1-3+8
3/29SAS [ 130 ]NYK -9
SAS +9
212NYK [ 126 ]-4-13+44
3/27TOR [ 101 ]NYK -13.5
TOR +13.5
210.5NYK [ 145 ]+44+30.5+35.5
3/25NYK [ 124 ]NYK -16.5
DET +16.5
209DET [ 99 ]+25+8.5+14
3/23NYK [ 105 ]NYK -7.5
BKN +7.5
203BKN [ 93 ]+12+4.5-5
3/21DEN [ 113 ]NYK +9.5
DEN -9.5
207.5NYK [ 100 ]-13-3.5+5.5
3/18GSW [ 112 ]NYK +6
GSW -6
211.5NYK [ 119 ]+7+13+19.5
3/16SAC [ 91 ]NYK +3.5
SAC -3.5
217NYK [ 98 ]+7+10.5-28

Heat Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/4MIAMIA -3
PHI +3
210PHI---
4/2MIAMIA -2.5
NYK +2.5
206.5NYK---
3/31WAS [ 107 ]MIA -11
WAS +11
217MIA [ 119 ]+12+1+9
3/29MIA [ 142 ]MIA -14
POR +14
210POR [ 82 ]+60+46+14
3/26MIA [ 92 ]MIA +1.5
GSW -1.5
219GSW [ 113 ]-21-19.5-14
3/24MIA [ 121 ]MIA -4
CLE +4
203.5CLE [ 84 ]+37+33+1.5
3/22MIA [ 88 ]MIA -3
NOP +3
207.5NOP [ 111 ]-23-26-8.5
3/20CLE [ 104 ]MIA +2
CLE -2
203.5MIA [ 107 ]+3+5+7.5
3/18PHI [ 98 ]MIA +2
PHI -2
209MIA [ 91 ]-7-5-20
3/17DET [ 101 ]MIA -5.5
DET +5.5
214MIA [ 104 ]+3-2.5-9

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
4/2MIAMIA -2.5
NYK +2.5
206.5NYK--------
1/27NYK [ 125 ]MIA +4.5
NYK -4.5
218MIA [ 109 ]-16-11.5+16111.2117.6134.9-17.3234
11/24NYK [ 100 ]MIA +5.5
NYK -5.5
209.5MIA [ 98 ]-2+3.5-11.5116.4101103.1-2.1198
5/12MIA [ 96 ]MIA -6.5
NYK +6.5
205.5NYK [ 92 ]+4-2.5-17.5105.9108.8104.34.5188
5/10NYK [ 112 ]MIA +3.5
NYK -3.5
209.5MIA [ 103 ]-9-5.5+5.5111.8110.6120.3-9.7215
5/8MIA [ 109 ]MIA -4.5
NYK +4.5
207NYK [ 101 ]+8+3.5+3111.1117.7109.18.6210
5/6MIA [ 105 ]MIA -4
NYK +4
209NYK [ 86 ]+19+15-18117.2107.588.119.5191
5/2NYK [ 111 ]MIA +10
NYK -10
207.5MIA [ 105 ]-6+4+8.5108.6116.1122.7-6.6216
4/30NYK [ 101 ]MIA +4
NYK -4
210MIA [ 108 ]+7+11-1112.3115.41087.5209
3/29NYK [ 101 ]MIA +5
NYK -5
223MIA [ 92 ]-9-4-30108.5101.8111.8-10193
3/22MIA [ 127 ]MIA -2.5
NYK +2.5
224NYK [ 120 ]+7+4.5+23117.4129.8122.77.2247


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h36-34-317-8-23-6-010-6-06-13-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Knicks 44-3020-73-612-59-110-00-00-00-0
Heat 1h40-30-418-7-24-4-19-7-09-12-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 41-3319-80-912-410-120-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h31-39-311-16-04-5-08-8-08-9-30-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Knicks 39-33-216-11-03-5-110-6-110-10-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1h40-32-213-14-05-3-18-8-014-7-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 34-37-312-14-11-8-07-8-114-7-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h27-46-09-18-01-8-06-10-011-9-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Knicks 30-44-010-17-02-7-06-11-012-8-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1h33-40-111-15-14-5-06-10-012-10-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 28-46-013-14-04-5-05-11-06-16-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h31-39-310-16-14-5-06-8-211-9-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Knicks 35-39-012-15-03-6-08-9-012-8-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1h37-35-214-11-24-5-05-11-014-8-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 34-40-015-12-04-5-05-11-010-12-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h25-47-18-18-11-8-06-10-010-10-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Knicks 32-42-010-17-04-5-07-10-010-10-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1h29-45-010-17-02-7-07-9-010-12-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 31-42-116-11-05-3-15-11-05-17-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Heat0-0-0 (-)5-3-1 (62.5%)8-8-1 (50%)7-7-1 (50%)7-10-1 (41.2%)4-7-0 (36.4%)2-2-0 (50%)
Knicks0-0-0 (-)0-3-0 (0%)9-12-1 (42.9%)10-4-0 (71.4%)5-8-0 (38.5%)9-2-0 (81.8%)6-4-1 (60%)