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3/29 | 3/31MIL@ATL MEM@ORL BOS@NOP

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Bucks @ Hawks [ +4 / 223 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 30, 2024
Hawks | 36-47 (43.4%)
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Hawks (+4) a 54.1-64.9% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 223 around 5.2-4.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Hawks have a 68.1% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 5.5% chance of going over the total.

Bucks Situational Notes

Hawks Situational Notes

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/2	WAS	MIL -13.5 WAS +13.5	228.5	MIL	-	-	-
3/30	ATL	MIL -4 ATL +4	223	MIL	-	-	-
3/28	NOP [ 107 ]	MIL -2.5 NOP +2.5	226	MIL [ 100 ]	-7	-9.5	-19
3/26	MIL [ 124 ]	MIL -9 LAL +9	232	LAL [ 128 ]	-4	-13	+20
3/24	MIL [ 118 ]	MIL -2.5 OKC +2.5	233	OKC [ 93 ]	+25	+22.5	-22
3/21	MIL [ 115 ]	MIL -10.5 BKN +10.5	221.5	BKN [ 108 ]	+7	-3.5	+1.5
3/20	BOS [ 122 ]	MIL +8 BOS -8	225.5	MIL [ 119 ]	-3	+5	+15.5
3/17	MIL [ 140 ]	MIL +2.5 PHO -2.5	227	PHO [ 129 ]	+11	+13.5	+42
3/14	MIL [ 114 ]	MIL -7 PHI +7	220	PHI [ 105 ]	+9	+2	-1
3/12	SAC [ 129 ]	MIL -2 SAC +2	236	MIL [ 94 ]	-35	-37	-13

Hawks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/1	CHI	ATL +2 CHI -2	221.5	ATL	-	-	-
3/30	ATL	ATL +4 MIL -4	223	MIL	-	-	-
3/28	ATL [ 123 ]	ATL +17.5 BOS -17.5	226	BOS [ 122 ]	+1	+18.5	+19
3/27	ATL [ 120 ]	ATL -10.5 POR +10.5	216	POR [ 106 ]	+14	+3.5	+10
3/25	ATL [ 120 ]	ATL +12 BOS -12	226	BOS [ 118 ]	+2	+14	+12
3/23	ATL [ 132 ]	ATL -8 CHA +8	214	CHA [ 91 ]	+41	+33	+9
3/21	PHO [ 128 ]	ATL +9 PHO -9	225.5	ATL [ 115 ]	-13	-4	+17.5
3/18	LAL [ 136 ]	ATL +9 LAL -9	225	ATL [ 105 ]	-31	-22	+16
3/17	LAC [ 93 ]	ATL +9.5 LAC -9.5	221	ATL [ 110 ]	+17	+26.5	-18
3/15	UTA [ 124 ]	ATL -1.5 UTA +1.5	222.5	ATL [ 122 ]	-2	-3.5	+23.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/30	ATL	ATL +4 MIL -4	223	MIL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12/2	MIL [ 132 ]	ATL +6.5 MIL -6.5	252.5	ATL [ 121 ]	-11	-4.5	+0.5	122.1	119	129.8	-10.8	253
10/29	MIL [ 110 ]	ATL +6 MIL -6	239.5	ATL [ 127 ]	+17	+23	-2.5	123.8	123.1	106.6	16.5	237
1/11	ATL [ 105 ]	ATL -12.5 MIL +12.5	230.5	MIL [ 114 ]	-9	-21.5	-11.5	117.7	107.1	116.3	-9.2	219
11/14	MIL [ 106 ]	ATL +4 MIL -4	226	ATL [ 121 ]	+15	+19	+1	120.8	120.2	105.3	14.9	227
11/7	ATL [ 117 ]	ATL +5.5 MIL -5.5	219.5	MIL [ 98 ]	+19	+24.5	-4.5	124.8	112.5	94.3	18.3	215
10/29	MIL [ 123 ]	ATL +5.5 MIL -5.5	228.5	ATL [ 115 ]	-8	-2.5	+9.5	119.5	115.5	123.5	-8	238

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Efficiency

Bucks (last 73 games)		Hawks (last 73 games)
0.6 (10)	Win Percentage	0.44 (21)
43.06 (27)	ATS Win%	36.99 (30)
50 (11)	OU%	52.86 (4)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
118.36 (7)	Offensive Rating	117.19 (12)
115.75 (17)	Defensive Rating	119.36 (27)
99.89 (8)	Pace	100.08 (6)
2.05 (15)	A/TO Ratio	1.96 (19)

Four Factors

Bucks (last 73 games)		Hawks (last 73 games)
56.76 (4)	EFG%	53.95 (17)
53.85 (9)	EFG% Allowed	57.24 (30)
27 (4)	FT Rate	25.13 (12)
23.4 (8)	FT Rate Allowed	24.21 (13)
21.83 (25)	OReb%	27.08 (4)
22.83 (5)	OReb% Allowed	24.79 (20)
12.85 (7)	TO Rate	13.41 (14)
11.96 (30)	TO Rate Forced	13.99 (11)

Scoring

Bucks (last 73 games)		Hawks (last 73 games)
118.98 (4)	PPG	118.33 (6)
116.35 (20)	PPG Allowed	120.51 (28)
14.54 (29)	Pts off TO	17.13 (8)
14.96 (6)	Pts off TO Allowed	16.67 (18)
13.07 (22)	2nd Chance Pts	15.83 (4)
13.67 (13)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (14)
12.68 (24)	Fast Break Pts	13.37 (21)
13.63 (9)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	16.62 (28)

Inside the Arc

Bucks (last 73 games)		Hawks (last 73 games)
38.49 (30)	Paint Attempts	45.78 (7)
44.46 (21)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.88 (22)
61.28 (1)	Paint FG%	54.85 (27)
57.35 (15)	Paint FG% Allowed	59.81 (27)
11.95 (4)	Mid-Range Attempts	8.99 (23)
12.12 (30)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	8.89 (5)
0.45 (7)	Mid-Range FG%	0.47 (3)
0.42 (15)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.43 (20)

Three Point Shooting

Bucks (last 73 games)		Hawks (last 73 games)
10.13 (7)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.6 (2)
7.85 (7)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	10.73 (28)
41.16 (5)	Corner 3 FG%	37.97 (22)
36.8 (5)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	40.57 (22)
27.82 (7)	ATB3 Attempts	26.94 (10)
27.28 (24)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	25.46 (15)
35.99 (14)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (15)
35.54 (13)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	37.79 (27)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	42-29-1	25-9-0	2-1-0	13-14-0	2-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	46-27	26-8	3-0	16-12	1-7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Hawks 1h	35-34-4	14-9-2	2-9-1	10-2-1	9-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	34-39	14-11	6-6	7-6	7-16	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	31-36-5	20-11-3	2-1-0	6-19-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	31-41-1	13-20-1	3-0-0	12-16-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks 1h	37-33-3	14-11-0	4-7-1	8-4-1	11-11-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	27-46-0	9-16-0	6-6-0	4-9-0	8-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	30-42-0	13-21-0	1-2-0	13-14-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	37-35-1	20-14-0	1-2-0	14-13-1	2-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks 1h	37-34-2	9-15-1	8-4-0	6-7-0	14-8-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	38-34-1	15-10-0	8-4-0	6-7-0	9-13-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	30-41-1	15-19-0	2-1-0	12-15-0	1-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	38-35-0	20-14-0	2-1-0	13-15-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks 1h	38-34-1	10-14-1	8-4-0	6-7-0	14-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	39-34-0	14-11-0	8-4-0	7-6-0	10-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	34-37-1	13-20-1	1-2-0	16-11-0	4-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	41-30-2	21-13-0	1-2-0	16-10-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks 1h	35-38-0	11-14-0	6-6-0	5-8-0	13-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	45-27-1	17-8-0	7-5-0	8-4-1	13-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Hawks	3-0-0 (100%)	2-5-0 (28.6%)	3-8-0 (27.3%)	8-14-0 (36.4%)	6-13-0 (31.6%)	4-5-0 (44.4%)	1-1-0 (50%)
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	4-4-0 (50%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	14-13-0 (51.9%)	4-9-1 (30.8%)	5-11-0 (31.3%)