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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Hawks (+17.5) a 71.3-76.7% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 226 around 5.1-5.2% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Hawks have a 81.4% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 5.5% chance of going over the total.


Celtics Situational Notes

Hawks Situational Notes

Celtics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
3/30NOPBOS -6
NOP +6
223BOS---
3/28ATLBOS -17.5
ATL +17.5
226BOS---
3/25ATL [ 120 ]BOS -12
ATL +12
226BOS [ 118 ]-2-14+12
3/23CHI [ 113 ]BOS -5.5
CHI +5.5
219.5BOS [ 124 ]+11+5.5+17.5
3/22DET [ 102 ]BOS -13.5
DET +13.5
223BOS [ 129 ]+27+13.5+8
3/20BOS [ 122 ]BOS -8
MIL +8
225.5MIL [ 119 ]+3-5+15.5
3/18BOS [ 119 ]BOS -15
DET +15
222.5DET [ 94 ]+25+10-9.5
3/17WAS [ 104 ]BOS -13
WAS +13
227.5BOS [ 130 ]+26+13+6.5
3/14BOS [ 127 ]BOS -5.5
PHO +5.5
226PHO [ 112 ]+15+9.5+13
3/12UTA [ 107 ]BOS -6.5
UTA +6.5
231BOS [ 123 ]+16+9.5-1

Hawks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
3/30ATLATL +4
MIL -4
223MIL---
3/28ATLATL +17.5
BOS -17.5
226BOS---
3/27ATL [ 120 ]ATL -10.5
POR +10.5
216POR [ 106 ]+14+3.5+10
3/25ATL [ 120 ]ATL +12
BOS -12
226BOS [ 118 ]+2+14+12
3/23ATL [ 132 ]ATL -8
CHA +8
214CHA [ 91 ]+41+33+9
3/21PHO [ 128 ]ATL +9
PHO -9
225.5ATL [ 115 ]-13-4+17.5
3/18LAL [ 136 ]ATL +9
LAL -9
225ATL [ 105 ]-31-22+16
3/17LAC [ 93 ]ATL +9.5
LAC -9.5
221ATL [ 110 ]+17+26.5-18
3/15UTA [ 124 ]ATL -1.5
UTA +1.5
222.5ATL [ 122 ]-2-3.5+23.5
3/13POR [ 106 ]ATL -3.5
POR +3.5
216.5ATL [ 102 ]-4-7.5-8.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
3/28ATLATL +17.5
BOS -17.5
226BOS--------
3/25ATL [ 120 ]ATL +12
BOS -12
226BOS [ 118 ]+2+14+12111.2129.5127.32.2238
2/7BOS [ 125 ]ATL +12
BOS -12
244.5ATL [ 117 ]-8+4-2.5124.7112.6120.3-7.7242
11/26BOS [ 113 ]ATL +7
BOS -7
236ATL [ 103 ]-10-3-20115.9106.6117-10.4216
4/27ATL [ 120 ]ATL +7
BOS -7
229.5BOS [ 128 ]-8-1+18.5116.8123.3131.5-8.2248
4/25BOS [ 117 ]ATL +13
BOS -13
231ATL [ 119 ]+2+15+5116.9122.2120.12.1236
4/23ATL [ 121 ]ATL +7
BOS -7
231BOS [ 129 ]-8-1+19126.9114.4122-7.6250
4/21ATL [ 130 ]ATL +5.5
BOS -5.5
229.5BOS [ 122 ]+8+13.5+22.5123.6126.3118.57.8252
4/18BOS [ 119 ]ATL +10
BOS -10
231.5ATL [ 106 ]-13-3-6.5120106119-13225
4/15BOS [ 112 ]ATL +10
BOS -10
230.5ATL [ 99 ]-13-3-19.5120.898.4111.3-12.9211
4/9BOS [ 120 ]ATL +4.5
BOS -4.5
224ATL [ 114 ]-6-1.5+10115.4118.6124.8-6.2234


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h59-13-027-8-00-0-031-4-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 57-1532-30-024-111-10-00-00-00-0
Hawks 1h35-33-414-9-22-8-110-2-19-14-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 33-3914-115-67-67-160-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h53-18-124-11-00-0-028-6-11-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 38-32-220-15-00-0-017-16-21-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 1h36-33-314-11-03-7-18-4-111-11-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 26-46-09-16-05-6-04-9-08-15-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h40-31-120-15-00-0-019-15-11-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 36-35-118-17-00-0-017-17-11-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 1h36-34-29-15-17-4-06-7-014-8-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 37-34-115-10-07-4-06-7-09-13-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h43-28-123-12-00-0-019-15-11-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 41-31-022-13-00-0-018-17-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 1h37-34-110-14-17-4-06-7-014-9-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 38-34-014-11-07-4-07-6-010-13-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h28-42-214-21-00-0-012-21-22-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 34-38-017-18-00-0-016-19-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 1h34-38-011-14-05-6-05-8-013-10-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 44-27-117-8-06-5-08-4-113-10-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Hawks2-0-0 (100%)2-5-0 (28.6%)3-8-0 (27.3%)8-14-0 (36.4%)6-13-0 (31.6%)4-5-0 (44.4%)1-1-0 (50%)
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)0-1-0 (0%)11-10-1 (52.4%)8-11-1 (42.1%)17-9-1 (65.4%)