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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bulls (+2.5) a 51-41.3% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 234.5 around 3.4-3.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bulls have a 59% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 3.1% chance of going over the total.


Pacers Situational Notes

Bulls Situational Notes

Pacers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
3/29INDIND -3.5
LAL +3.5
243.5LAL---
3/27CHIIND -2.5
CHI +2.5
234.5IND---
3/25LAC [ 116 ]IND +5
LAC -5
234IND [ 133 ]+17+22+15
3/24LAL [ 150 ]IND +2.5
LAL -2.5
239IND [ 145 ]-5-2.5+56
3/22GSW [ 111 ]IND +4.5
GSW -4.5
242IND [ 123 ]+12+16.5-8
3/20DET [ 103 ]IND -9.5
DET +9.5
233.5IND [ 122 ]+19+9.5-8.5
3/18IND [ 103 ]IND -6.5
CLE +6.5
225CLE [ 108 ]-5-11.5-14
3/16IND [ 121 ]IND -9
BKN +9
228BKN [ 100 ]+21+12-7
3/13IND [ 129 ]IND -3.5
CHI +3.5
230.5CHI [ 132 ]-3-6.5+30.5
3/12OKC [ 111 ]IND +7
OKC -7
240.5IND [ 121 ]+10+17-8.5

Bulls Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
3/29BKNCHI -3
BKN +3
216CHI---
3/27CHICHI +2.5
IND -2.5
234.5IND---
3/25CHI [ 105 ]CHI -12.5
WAS +12.5
225WAS [ 107 ]-2-14.5-13
3/23CHI [ 113 ]CHI +5.5
BOS -5.5
219.5BOS [ 124 ]-11-5.5+17.5
3/21HOU [ 127 ]CHI +4
HOU -4
219.5CHI [ 117 ]-10-6+24.5
3/18CHI [ 110 ]CHI -8
POR +8
213POR [ 107 ]+3-5+4
3/16CHI [ 127 ]CHI -9.5
WAS +9.5
223.5WAS [ 98 ]+29+19.5+1.5
3/14CHI [ 111 ]CHI +6.5
LAC -6.5
214LAC [ 126 ]-15-8.5+23
3/13IND [ 129 ]CHI +3.5
IND -3.5
230.5CHI [ 132 ]+3+6.5+30.5
3/11CHI [ 92 ]CHI +4
DAL -4
233DAL [ 127 ]-35-31-14

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
3/27CHICHI +2.5
IND -2.5
234.5IND--------
3/13IND [ 129 ]CHI +3.5
IND -3.5
230.5CHI [ 132 ]+3+6.5+30.5129.9122119.22.8261
12/28CHI [ 104 ]CHI +1
IND -1
238.5IND [ 120 ]-16-15-14.5118.9105121.1-16.1224
10/30IND [ 105 ]CHI +3.5
IND -3.5
229CHI [ 112 ]+7+10.5-12121.7110.4103.56.9217
3/5CHI [ 122 ]CHI -5.5
IND +5.5
227IND [ 125 ]-3-8.5+20112.4130.2133.4-3.2247
2/15IND [ 117 ]CHI +3
IND -3
227.5CHI [ 113 ]-4-1+2.5121.3111.8115.7-4230
1/24IND [ 116 ]CHI -1.5
IND +1.5
234CHI [ 110 ]-6-7.5-8121.1109115-5.9226
10/26CHI [ 124 ]CHI -7
IND +7
233.5IND [ 109 ]+15+8-0.5127.3116.9102.714.1233


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h32-39-211-12-15-7-06-4-09-16-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 41-3313-118-56-413-130-00-00-00-0
Bulls 1h31-40-114-7-02-13-15-4-010-16-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 34-3811-107-98-18-180-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h32-38-38-14-25-6-15-5-013-13-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 40-33-111-13-08-4-15-5-015-11-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 1h34-36-213-8-04-11-15-4-012-13-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 35-36-19-12-07-8-16-3-013-13-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h37-36-011-13-08-4-02-8-016-10-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 37-37-013-11-08-5-03-7-013-13-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 1h30-40-27-13-18-8-05-4-010-15-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 41-31-09-12-011-5-07-2-014-12-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h37-35-110-14-09-3-05-5-013-12-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 45-28-113-10-19-4-05-5-017-9-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 1h28-42-26-15-06-10-04-5-012-12-20-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 38-34-06-15-010-6-07-2-015-11-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h34-37-212-11-15-7-03-6-114-12-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 33-40-19-14-17-6-05-5-012-14-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 1h31-40-15-16-09-7-05-4-012-13-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 45-26-111-10-012-4-07-2-015-10-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Bulls2-2-0 (50%)4-5-0 (44.4%)13-12-0 (52%)3-4-1 (42.9%)11-8-0 (57.9%)3-2-0 (60%)0-2-0 (0%)
Pacers1-1-0 (50%)4-3-0 (57.1%)15-9-1 (62.5%)5-3-0 (62.5%)6-10-0 (37.5%)7-5-0 (58.3%)2-2-0 (50%)