NBA | themoneyballer.com

3/25 | 3/27LAL@MIL GSW@MIA DAL@SAC OKC@NOP

Already a baller? You're in the right place -- you just need to log in. Not a baller yet, but want access to the world's best dashboard for breaking down a game? Awesome. We have a big blue button for that, too:

Lakers @ Bucks [ -9 / 232 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 26, 2024
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)
Lakers | 50-39 (56.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (-9) a 38.6-29.1% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 232 around 3.7-4.2% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 59.2% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 3.8% chance of going over the total.

Lakers Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Lakers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/27	MEM	LAL -3.5 MEM +3.5	221.5	LAL	-	-	-
3/26	MIL	LAL +9 MIL -9	232	LAL	-	-	-
3/24	LAL [ 150 ]	LAL -2.5 IND +2.5	239	IND [ 145 ]	+5	+2.5	+56
3/22	LAL [ 101 ]	LAL -8.5 PHI +8.5	228	PHI [ 94 ]	+7	-1.5	-33
3/18	LAL [ 136 ]	LAL -9 ATL +9	225	ATL [ 105 ]	+31	+22	+16
3/16	LAL [ 121 ]	LAL -1.5 GSW +1.5	233	GSW [ 128 ]	-7	-8.5	+16
3/13	SAC [ 120 ]	LAL -2 SAC +2	238.5	LAL [ 107 ]	-13	-15	-11.5
3/10	LAL [ 120 ]	LAL -1 MIN +1	221.5	MIN [ 109 ]	+11	+10	+7.5
3/8	LAL [ 123 ]	LAL +3.5 MIL -3.5	226.5	MIL [ 122 ]	+1	+4.5	+18.5
3/6	LAL [ 120 ]	LAL -3.5 SAC +3.5	238	SAC [ 130 ]	-10	-13.5	+12

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/28	NOP	MIL -2.5 NOP +2.5	226	MIL	-	-	-
3/26	MIL	MIL -9 LAL +9	232	LAL	-	-	-
3/24	MIL [ 118 ]	MIL -2.5 OKC +2.5	233	OKC [ 93 ]	+25	+22.5	-22
3/21	MIL [ 115 ]	MIL -10.5 BKN +10.5	221.5	BKN [ 108 ]	+7	-3.5	+1.5
3/20	BOS [ 122 ]	MIL +8 BOS -8	225.5	MIL [ 119 ]	-3	+5	+15.5
3/17	MIL [ 140 ]	MIL +2.5 PHO -2.5	227	PHO [ 129 ]	+11	+13.5	+42
3/14	MIL [ 114 ]	MIL -7 PHI +7	220	PHI [ 105 ]	+9	+2	-1
3/12	SAC [ 129 ]	MIL -2 SAC +2	236	MIL [ 94 ]	-35	-37	-13
3/10	LAC [ 117 ]	MIL -5.5 LAC +5.5	222.5	MIL [ 124 ]	+7	+1.5	+18.5
3/8	LAL [ 123 ]	MIL -3.5 LAL +3.5	226.5	MIL [ 122 ]	-1	-4.5	+18.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/26	MIL	MIL -9 LAL +9	232	LAL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/8	LAL [ 123 ]	MIL -3.5 LAL +3.5	226.5	MIL [ 122 ]	-1	-4.5	+18.5	117.8	124.3	125.3	-1	245
2/9	LAL [ 106 ]	MIL -8 LAL +8	234.5	MIL [ 115 ]	+9	+1	-13.5	117.2	117.8	108.5	9.2	221
12/2	MIL [ 129 ]	MIL -8 LAL +8	230.5	LAL [ 133 ]	-4	-12	+31.5	117.3	131.9	136	-4.1	262

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

Isolate games after ASB:

Include regular season:

Include post-season:

Current matchup:

Efficiency

Lakers (last 72 games)		Bucks (last 71 games)
0.57 (14)	Win Percentage	0.6 (9)
45.71 (25)	ATS Win%	44.29 (27)
56.34 (2)	OU%	50 (12)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
115.93 (16)	Offensive Rating	118.36 (7)
115.35 (14)	Defensive Rating	115.75 (16)
100.92 (4)	Pace	99.89 (8)
2.04 (14)	A/TO Ratio	2.05 (11)

Four Factors

Lakers (last 72 games)		Bucks (last 71 games)
56.63 (7)	EFG%	56.76 (4)
55 (18)	EFG% Allowed	53.85 (9)
27.63 (3)	FT Rate	27 (5)
19.2 (1)	FT Rate Allowed	23.4 (8)
19.91 (30)	OReb%	21.83 (26)
23.8 (12)	OReb% Allowed	22.83 (5)
13.73 (18)	TO Rate	12.85 (7)
13.18 (22)	TO Rate Forced	11.96 (30)

Scoring

Lakers (last 72 games)		Bucks (last 71 games)
118.04 (8)	PPG	118.98 (5)
117.44 (23)	PPG Allowed	116.35 (19)
16.34 (14)	Pts off TO	14.54 (29)
17.01 (22)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.96 (6)
10.49 (30)	2nd Chance Pts	13.07 (22)
14.94 (27)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (13)
16.93 (3)	Fast Break Pts	12.68 (23)
16.23 (27)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.63 (9)

Inside the Arc

Lakers (last 72 games)		Bucks (last 71 games)
45.74 (7)	Paint Attempts	38.49 (30)
45.17 (23)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.46 (21)
60.81 (3)	Paint FG%	61.28 (2)
56.78 (12)	Paint FG% Allowed	57.35 (15)
10.43 (12)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.95 (4)
10.67 (24)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.12 (30)
0.39 (22)	Mid-Range FG%	0.45 (7)
0.42 (19)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (18)

Three Point Shooting

Lakers (last 72 games)		Bucks (last 71 games)
8.35 (23)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.13 (6)
8.87 (16)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.85 (7)
38.69 (16)	Corner 3 FG%	41.16 (6)
39.61 (19)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.8 (4)
22.82 (27)	ATB3 Attempts	27.82 (7)
28.91 (30)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.28 (23)
37.63 (5)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (15)
37.2 (26)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.54 (11)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Lakers 1h	31-38-2	18-10-0	4-6-1	4-7-0	5-15-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Lakers	40-32	22-6	5-6	5-7	8-13	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bucks 1h	41-28-1	24-9-0	2-1-0	13-13-0	2-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	46-25	26-7	3-0	16-11	1-7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Lakers 1h	31-40-0	13-15-0	6-5-0	4-7-0	8-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Lakers	33-38-1	14-14-0	5-5-1	3-9-0	11-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	30-35-5	19-11-3	2-1-0	6-18-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	31-39-1	13-19-1	3-0-0	12-15-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Lakers 1h	40-29-2	14-13-1	4-7-0	6-5-0	16-4-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Lakers	39-33-0	15-13-0	4-7-0	7-5-0	13-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	30-40-0	13-20-0	1-2-0	13-13-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	36-34-1	19-14-0	1-2-0	14-12-1	2-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Lakers 1h	35-34-2	13-14-1	3-8-0	6-5-0	13-7-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Lakers	37-34-1	15-13-0	3-7-1	6-6-0	13-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	30-39-1	15-18-0	2-1-0	12-14-0	1-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	37-34-0	19-14-0	2-1-0	13-14-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Lakers 1h	43-25-3	14-13-1	4-6-1	7-4-0	18-2-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Lakers	41-31-0	13-15-0	6-5-0	9-3-0	13-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	33-36-1	13-19-1	1-2-0	15-11-0	4-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	40-29-2	20-13-0	1-2-0	16-9-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	4-4-0 (50%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	14-12-0 (53.8%)	4-8-1 (33.3%)	5-11-0 (31.3%)
Lakers	1-0-0 (100%)	0-1-0 (0%)	11-12-1 (47.8%)	6-8-0 (42.9%)	7-11-1 (38.9%)	4-3-0 (57.1%)	3-3-0 (50%)