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Wizards @ Bulls [ -12.5 / 225 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 25, 2024
Bulls | 40-44 (47.6%)
Wizards | 15-67 (18.3%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bulls (-12.5) a 35.8-35.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 225 around 3.2-3.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bulls have a 38.7% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 2.9% chance of going over the total.

Wizards Situational Notes

Bulls Situational Notes

Wizards Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/27	WAS	WAS +3.5 BKN -3.5	223	BKN	-	-	-
3/25	CHI	WAS +12.5 CHI -12.5	225	WAS	-	-	-
3/23	WAS [ 112 ]	WAS -6 TOR +6	232	TOR [ 109 ]	+3	-3	-11
3/21	WAS [ 109 ]	WAS +11 SAC -11	237	SAC [ 102 ]	+7	+18	-26
3/19	WAS [ 114 ]	WAS +9.5 HOU -9.5	227.5	HOU [ 137 ]	-23	-13.5	+23.5
3/17	WAS [ 104 ]	WAS +13 BOS -13	227.5	BOS [ 130 ]	-26	-13	+6.5
3/16	CHI [ 127 ]	WAS +9.5 CHI -9.5	223.5	WAS [ 98 ]	-29	-19.5	+1.5
3/14	HOU [ 135 ]	WAS +8.5 HOU -8.5	229	WAS [ 119 ]	-16	-7.5	+25
3/12	MEM [ 109 ]	WAS -2.5 MEM +2.5	220	WAS [ 97 ]	-12	-14.5	-14
3/10	MIA [ 108 ]	WAS +11.5 MIA -11.5	227.5	WAS [ 110 ]	+2	+13.5	-9.5

Bulls Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/27	CHI	CHI +2.5 IND -2.5	234.5	IND	-	-	-
3/25	CHI	CHI -12.5 WAS +12.5	225	WAS	-	-	-
3/23	CHI [ 113 ]	CHI +5.5 BOS -5.5	219.5	BOS [ 124 ]	-11	-5.5	+17.5
3/21	HOU [ 127 ]	CHI +4 HOU -4	219.5	CHI [ 117 ]	-10	-6	+24.5
3/18	CHI [ 110 ]	CHI -8 POR +8	213	POR [ 107 ]	+3	-5	+4
3/16	CHI [ 127 ]	CHI -9.5 WAS +9.5	223.5	WAS [ 98 ]	+29	+19.5	+1.5
3/14	CHI [ 111 ]	CHI +6.5 LAC -6.5	214	LAC [ 126 ]	-15	-8.5	+23
3/13	IND [ 129 ]	CHI +3.5 IND -3.5	230.5	CHI [ 132 ]	+3	+6.5	+30.5
3/11	CHI [ 92 ]	CHI +4 DAL -4	233	DAL [ 127 ]	-35	-31	-14
3/9	LAC [ 112 ]	CHI +7 LAC -7	220.5	CHI [ 102 ]	-10	-3	-6.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
4/12	WAS	CHI -2 WAS +2		CHI	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/25	CHI	CHI -12.5 WAS +12.5	225	WAS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/16	CHI [ 127 ]	CHI -9.5 WAS +9.5	223.5	WAS [ 98 ]	+29	+19.5	+1.5	118.5	128.6	99.2	29.4	225
2/26	CHI [ 102 ]	CHI -6 WAS +6	223	WAS [ 82 ]	+20	+14	-39	105.6	115.9	93.1	22.7	184
1/11	WAS [ 100 ]	CHI +12.5 WAS -12.5	230.5	CHI [ 97 ]	-3	+9.5	-33.5	114.3	101.8	105	-3.2	197
12/7	CHI [ 115 ]	CHI -5 WAS +5	226.5	WAS [ 111 ]	+4	-1	-0.5	129	106.9	103.2	3.7	226
10/21	WAS [ 102 ]	CHI +2 WAS -2	221	CHI [ 100 ]	-2	0	-19	113.5	105.8	107.9	-2.1	202

Filters

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Current matchup:

Efficiency

Wizards (last 71 games)		Bulls (last 71 games)
0.18 (29)	Win Percentage	0.48 (20)
47.06 (21)	ATS Win%	51.43 (14)
49.3 (14)	OU%	57.75 (1)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
110.53 (26)	Offensive Rating	114.85 (19)
119.56 (28)	Defensive Rating	116.32 (19)
102.65 (1)	Pace	96.28 (28)
2 (18)	A/TO Ratio	2.04 (14)

Four Factors

Wizards (last 71 games)		Bulls (last 71 games)
53.79 (19)	EFG%	53.39 (22)
56.2 (26)	EFG% Allowed	55.64 (20)
22.11 (29)	FT Rate	23.59 (21)
25.81 (22)	FT Rate Allowed	25.09 (18)
20 (29)	OReb%	25.13 (9)
27.54 (30)	OReb% Allowed	23.65 (12)
13.59 (17)	TO Rate	12.53 (5)
13.65 (18)	TO Rate Forced	14.31 (8)

Scoring

Wizards (last 71 games)		Bulls (last 71 games)
113.74 (17)	PPG	112.27 (21)
123.04 (30)	PPG Allowed	113.71 (14)
17.2 (8)	Pts off TO	17.17 (9)
17.09 (23)	Pts off TO Allowed	15.23 (7)
11.43 (29)	2nd Chance Pts	13.63 (16)
16.4 (30)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.82 (16)
17.59 (2)	Fast Break Pts	12.45 (27)
15.11 (22)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.27 (7)

Inside the Arc

Wizards (last 71 games)		Bulls (last 71 games)
47.43 (3)	Paint Attempts	42.85 (23)
48.7 (29)	Paint Attempts Allowed	38.5 (1)
57.8 (14)	Paint FG%	56.46 (20)
59.95 (28)	Paint FG% Allowed	59.01 (24)
8.41 (26)	Mid-Range Attempts	14.56 (1)
10.27 (17)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9 (6)
0.38 (25)	Mid-Range FG%	0.44 (9)
0.45 (29)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (18)

Three Point Shooting

Wizards (last 71 games)		Bulls (last 71 games)
8.38 (22)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.21 (13)
8.74 (14)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	11.12 (29)
38.43 (20)	Corner 3 FG%	38.54 (17)
40.31 (21)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	41.56 (29)
26.96 (10)	ATB3 Attempts	22.74 (27)
25 (12)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	28.18 (26)
33.92 (29)	ATB3 FG%	34.91 (22)
34.98 (6)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.31 (8)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Wizards 1h	24-46-1	3-2-0	8-20-1	0-1-0	13-23-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Wizards	13-58	2-3	4-25	0-1	7-29	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bulls 1h	31-39-1	14-6-0	2-13-1	5-4-0	10-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	34-37	11-9	7-9	8-1	8-18	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Wizards 1h	34-34-3	2-3-0	14-13-2	0-1-0	18-17-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Wizards	32-36-3	1-4-0	11-16-2	0-1-0	20-15-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	34-35-2	13-7-0	4-11-1	5-4-0	12-13-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	35-35-1	9-11-0	7-8-1	6-3-0	13-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Wizards 1h	26-44-1	2-3-0	12-17-0	0-1-0	12-23-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Wizards	35-35-1	3-2-0	12-16-1	0-1-0	20-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	30-39-2	7-12-1	8-8-0	5-4-0	10-15-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	41-30-0	9-11-0	11-5-0	7-2-0	14-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Wizards 1h	30-41-0	2-3-0	14-15-0	0-1-0	14-22-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Wizards	28-42-1	1-4-0	9-19-1	0-1-0	18-18-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	28-41-2	6-14-0	6-10-0	4-5-0	12-12-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	38-33-0	6-14-0	10-6-0	7-2-0	15-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Wizards 1h	30-41-0	2-3-0	12-17-0	1-0-0	15-21-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Wizards	39-32-0	3-2-0	16-13-0	1-0-0	19-17-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	31-39-1	5-15-0	9-7-0	5-4-0	12-13-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	44-26-1	10-10-0	12-4-0	7-2-0	15-10-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bulls	2-2-0 (50%)	4-5-0 (44.4%)	13-12-0 (52%)	3-4-1 (42.9%)	11-8-0 (57.9%)	3-2-0 (60%)	0-1-0 (0%)
Wizards	16-12-3 (57.1%)	6-14-0 (30%)	7-5-0 (58.3%)	2-1-0 (66.7%)	1-4-0 (20%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)