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Thunder @ Bucks [ -2.5 / 233 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 24, 2024
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)
Thunder | 63-29 (68.5%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (-2.5) a 39.2-25.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 233 around 3.9-3.4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 55.2% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 3.9% chance of going over the total.

Thunder Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Thunder Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/26	NOP	OKC -2 NOP +2	223	OKC	-	-	-
3/24	MIL	OKC +2.5 MIL -2.5	233	OKC	-	-	-
3/22	TOR [ 103 ]	OKC -15.5 TOR +15.5	231.5	OKC [ 123 ]	+20	+4.5	-5.5
3/20	OKC [ 119 ]	OKC -15 UTA +15	232.5	UTA [ 107 ]	+12	-3	-6.5
3/16	MEM [ 112 ]	OKC -10.5 MEM +10.5	219.5	OKC [ 118 ]	+6	-4.5	+10.5
3/14	OKC [ 126 ]	OKC -10 DAL +10	233	DAL [ 119 ]	+7	-3	+12
3/12	OKC [ 111 ]	OKC -7 IND +7	240.5	IND [ 121 ]	-10	-17	-8.5
3/10	OKC [ 124 ]	OKC -15 MEM +15	219	MEM [ 93 ]	+31	+16	-2
3/8	OKC [ 107 ]	OKC -9 MIA +9	225.5	MIA [ 100 ]	+7	-2	-18.5
3/6	POR [ 120 ]	OKC -13 POR +13	224	OKC [ 128 ]	+8	-5	+24

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/26	MIL	MIL -9 LAL +9	232	LAL	-	-	-
3/24	MIL	MIL -2.5 OKC +2.5	233	OKC	-	-	-
3/21	MIL [ 115 ]	MIL -10.5 BKN +10.5	221.5	BKN [ 108 ]	+7	-3.5	+1.5
3/20	BOS [ 122 ]	MIL +8 BOS -8	225.5	MIL [ 119 ]	-3	+5	+15.5
3/17	MIL [ 140 ]	MIL +2.5 PHO -2.5	227	PHO [ 129 ]	+11	+13.5	+42
3/14	MIL [ 114 ]	MIL -7 PHI +7	220	PHI [ 105 ]	+9	+2	-1
3/12	SAC [ 129 ]	MIL -2 SAC +2	236	MIL [ 94 ]	-35	-37	-13
3/10	LAC [ 117 ]	MIL -5.5 LAC +5.5	222.5	MIL [ 124 ]	+7	+1.5	+18.5
3/8	LAL [ 123 ]	MIL -3.5 LAL +3.5	226.5	MIL [ 122 ]	-1	-4.5	+18.5
3/6	GSW [ 125 ]	MIL +4.5 GSW -4.5	226.5	MIL [ 90 ]	-35	-30.5	-11.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
4/12	OKC	MIL +14.5 OKC -14.5	223.5	MIL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/24	MIL	MIL -2.5 OKC +2.5	233	OKC	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11/9	OKC [ 132 ]	MIL -1 OKC +1	213	MIL [ 136 ]	+4	+3	+55	115.6	116.8	113.4	3.4	221.8
11/5	MIL [ 108 ]	MIL -6.5 OKC +6.5	219.5	OKC [ 94 ]	+14	+7.5	-17.5	114.5	113.2	98.5	14.7	202

Filters

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Efficiency

Thunder (last 69 games)		Bucks (last 70 games)
0.7 (3)	Win Percentage	0.6 (9)
60.29 (2)	ATS Win%	43.48 (27)
53.03 (4)	OU%	50.72 (10)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
119.53 (4)	Offensive Rating	118.36 (6)
112.15 (5)	Defensive Rating	115.75 (16)
99.83 (9)	Pace	99.89 (8)
2.14 (5)	A/TO Ratio	2.05 (11)

Four Factors

Thunder (last 69 games)		Bucks (last 70 games)
57.32 (3)	EFG%	56.76 (4)
52.97 (5)	EFG% Allowed	53.85 (9)
24.02 (17)	FT Rate	27 (5)
25.65 (23)	FT Rate Allowed	23.4 (7)
21.13 (28)	OReb%	21.83 (26)
26.21 (28)	OReb% Allowed	22.83 (5)
12.61 (5)	TO Rate	12.85 (6)
15.62 (1)	TO Rate Forced	11.96 (30)

Scoring

Thunder (last 69 games)		Bucks (last 70 games)
120.09 (3)	PPG	118.98 (5)
112.67 (13)	PPG Allowed	116.35 (19)
20.45 (1)	Pts off TO	14.54 (29)
14.77 (4)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.96 (6)
11.82 (28)	2nd Chance Pts	13.07 (22)
15.34 (29)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (13)
15.78 (5)	Fast Break Pts	12.68 (23)
12.5 (3)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.63 (9)

Inside the Arc

Thunder (last 69 games)		Bucks (last 70 games)
44.24 (16)	Paint Attempts	38.49 (30)
42.82 (7)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.46 (21)
59.34 (9)	Paint FG%	61.28 (1)
54.86 (4)	Paint FG% Allowed	57.35 (15)
10.87 (9)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.95 (4)
9.26 (8)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.12 (30)
0.46 (4)	Mid-Range FG%	0.45 (7)
0.4 (5)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (18)

Three Point Shooting

Thunder (last 69 games)		Bucks (last 70 games)
8.82 (17)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.13 (6)
12.13 (30)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.85 (7)
41.36 (4)	Corner 3 FG%	41.16 (6)
36.88 (4)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.8 (3)
25.33 (17)	ATB3 Attempts	27.82 (8)
24.88 (9)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.28 (23)
38.08 (2)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (15)
35.98 (16)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.54 (13)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Thunder 1h	40-28-1	21-9-0	1-4-0	13-10-1	5-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Thunder	49-20	26-4	2-3	14-10	7-3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bucks 1h	40-28-1	23-9-0	2-1-0	13-13-0	2-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	45-25	25-7	3-0	16-11	1-7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Thunder 1h	37-31-1	19-11-0	2-3-0	10-13-1	6-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Thunder	41-28-0	19-11-0	3-2-0	11-13-0	8-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	30-34-5	19-10-3	2-1-0	6-18-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	30-39-1	12-19-1	3-0-0	12-15-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Thunder 1h	31-38-0	11-19-0	4-1-0	14-10-0	2-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Thunder	35-31-3	12-15-3	4-1-0	15-9-0	4-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	30-39-0	13-19-0	1-2-0	13-13-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	36-33-1	19-13-0	1-2-0	14-12-1	2-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Thunder 1h	31-37-1	13-16-1	3-2-0	12-12-0	3-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Thunder	39-29-1	17-12-1	4-1-0	12-12-0	6-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	30-38-1	15-17-0	2-1-0	12-14-0	1-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	36-34-0	18-14-0	2-1-0	13-14-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Thunder 1h	27-41-1	9-21-0	3-2-0	14-10-0	1-8-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Thunder	30-39-0	9-21-0	5-0-0	13-11-0	3-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	33-35-1	13-18-1	1-2-0	15-11-0	4-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	40-28-2	20-12-0	1-2-0	16-9-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	4-4-0 (50%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	13-12-0 (52%)	4-8-1 (33.3%)	5-11-0 (31.3%)
Thunder	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	9-2-0 (81.8%)	6-7-0 (46.2%)	14-7-0 (66.7%)	3-3-0 (50%)	9-8-1 (52.9%)