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3/22 | 3/24BOS@CHI CHA@ATL BKN@NYK SAC@ORL UTA@HOU PHO@SAS DEN@POR TOR@WAS

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Celtics @ Bulls [ +5.5 / 219.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 23, 2024
Bulls | 40-44 (47.6%)
Celtics | 80-21 (79.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bulls (+5.5) a 38.8-18% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 219.5 around 4.5-5.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bulls have a 49.9% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 4.1% chance of going over the total.

Celtics Situational Notes

Bulls Situational Notes

Celtics Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/25	ATL	BOS -12 ATL +12	226	BOS	-	-	-
3/23	CHI	BOS -5.5 CHI +5.5	219.5	BOS	-	-	-
3/22	DET [ 102 ]	BOS -13.5 DET +13.5	223	BOS [ 129 ]	+27	+13.5	+8
3/20	BOS [ 122 ]	BOS -8 MIL +8	225.5	MIL [ 119 ]	+3	-5	+15.5
3/18	BOS [ 119 ]	BOS -15 DET +15	222.5	DET [ 94 ]	+25	+10	-9.5
3/17	WAS [ 104 ]	BOS -13 WAS +13	227.5	BOS [ 130 ]	+26	+13	+6.5
3/14	BOS [ 127 ]	BOS -5.5 PHO +5.5	226	PHO [ 112 ]	+15	+9.5	+13
3/12	UTA [ 107 ]	BOS -6.5 UTA +6.5	231	BOS [ 123 ]	+16	+9.5	-1
3/11	POR [ 99 ]	BOS -12 POR +12	220	BOS [ 121 ]	+22	+10	0
3/9	PHO [ 107 ]	BOS -5.5 PHO +5.5	225.5	BOS [ 117 ]	+10	+4.5	-1.5

Bulls Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/25	CHI	CHI -12.5 WAS +12.5	225	WAS	-	-	-
3/23	CHI	CHI +5.5 BOS -5.5	219.5	BOS	-	-	-
3/21	HOU [ 127 ]	CHI +4 HOU -4	219.5	CHI [ 117 ]	-10	-6	+24.5
3/18	CHI [ 110 ]	CHI -8 POR +8	213	POR [ 107 ]	+3	-5	+4
3/16	CHI [ 127 ]	CHI -9.5 WAS +9.5	223.5	WAS [ 98 ]	+29	+19.5	+1.5
3/14	CHI [ 111 ]	CHI +6.5 LAC -6.5	214	LAC [ 126 ]	-15	-8.5	+23
3/13	IND [ 129 ]	CHI +3.5 IND -3.5	230.5	CHI [ 132 ]	+3	+6.5	+30.5
3/11	CHI [ 92 ]	CHI +4 DAL -4	233	DAL [ 127 ]	-35	-31	-14
3/9	LAC [ 112 ]	CHI +7 LAC -7	220.5	CHI [ 102 ]	-10	-3	-6.5
3/7	GSW [ 122 ]	CHI +8 GSW -8	223	CHI [ 125 ]	+3	+11	+24

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/23	CHI	CHI +5.5 BOS -5.5	219.5	BOS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/22	CHI [ 112 ]	CHI +8 BOS -8	225.5	BOS [ 129 ]	-17	-9	+15.5	117.9	114	131.3	-17.3	241
11/28	BOS [ 124 ]	CHI +12.5 BOS -12.5	219	CHI [ 97 ]	-27	-14.5	+2	115.9	100.4	128.4	-28	221
1/9	BOS [ 107 ]	CHI +9 BOS -9	236	CHI [ 99 ]	-8	+1	-30	112.3	105.8	114.4	-8.6	206
11/21	CHI [ 121 ]	CHI +5.5 BOS -5.5	230	BOS [ 107 ]	+14	+19.5	-2	123.8	117.3	103.7	13.6	228
11/4	BOS [ 123 ]	CHI +7 BOS -7	223.5	CHI [ 119 ]	-4	+3	+18.5	126	113.3	117.2	-3.8	242
10/24	CHI [ 120 ]	CHI +5.5 BOS -5.5	226	BOS [ 102 ]	+18	+23.5	-4	118.6	121.4	103.2	18.2	222

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

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Include regular season:

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Current matchup:

Efficiency

Celtics (last 70 games)		Bulls (last 70 games)
0.78 (1)	Win Percentage	0.48 (20)
53.73 (9)	ATS Win%	52.17 (12)
50 (12)	OU%	57.14 (1)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
123.16 (1)	Offensive Rating	114.85 (19)
111.48 (3)	Defensive Rating	116.32 (19)
97.16 (24)	Pace	96.28 (29)
2.25 (3)	A/TO Ratio	2.04 (14)

Four Factors

Celtics (last 70 games)		Bulls (last 70 games)
57.82 (1)	EFG%	53.39 (21)
52.26 (2)	EFG% Allowed	55.64 (20)
22.36 (27)	FT Rate	23.59 (21)
18.92 (1)	FT Rate Allowed	25.09 (18)
24.88 (13)	OReb%	25.13 (11)
23.68 (12)	OReb% Allowed	23.65 (11)
12.2 (2)	TO Rate	12.53 (6)
12.29 (27)	TO Rate Forced	14.31 (8)

Scoring

Celtics (last 70 games)		Bulls (last 70 games)
120.57 (4)	PPG	112.27 (21)
109.13 (4)	PPG Allowed	113.71 (14)
15.5 (25)	Pts off TO	17.17 (9)
13.28 (1)	Pts off TO Allowed	15.23 (7)
14.45 (11)	2nd Chance Pts	13.63 (16)
13.65 (12)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.82 (15)
15.38 (9)	Fast Break Pts	12.45 (26)
12.95 (4)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.27 (7)

Inside the Arc

Celtics (last 70 games)		Bulls (last 70 games)
38.65 (29)	Paint Attempts	42.85 (23)
43.72 (14)	Paint Attempts Allowed	38.5 (1)
60.87 (3)	Paint FG%	56.46 (20)
54.56 (4)	Paint FG% Allowed	59.01 (24)
9.1 (22)	Mid-Range Attempts	14.56 (1)
11.26 (28)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9 (6)
0.43 (10)	Mid-Range FG%	0.44 (9)
0.42 (18)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (19)

Three Point Shooting

Celtics (last 70 games)		Bulls (last 70 games)
9.32 (11)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.21 (12)
7.73 (6)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	11.12 (29)
43.06 (1)	Corner 3 FG%	38.54 (19)
35.17 (1)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	41.56 (29)
33 (1)	ATB3 Attempts	22.74 (26)
28.67 (30)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	28.18 (26)
37.73 (5)	ATB3 FG%	34.91 (21)
35.56 (12)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.31 (7)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	57-13-0	27-8-0	0-0-0	29-4-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	56-14	32-3	0-0	23-10	1-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bulls 1h	31-38-1	14-6-0	2-12-1	5-4-0	10-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	34-36	11-9	7-8	8-1	8-18	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	51-18-1	24-11-0	0-0-0	26-6-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	37-31-2	20-15-0	0-0-0	16-15-2	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	34-34-2	13-7-0	4-10-1	5-4-0	12-13-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	35-34-1	9-11-0	7-7-1	6-3-0	13-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	38-31-1	20-15-0	0-0-0	17-15-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	34-35-1	18-17-0	0-0-0	15-17-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	29-39-2	7-12-1	7-8-0	5-4-0	10-15-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	40-30-0	9-11-0	10-5-0	7-2-0	14-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	41-28-1	23-12-0	0-0-0	17-15-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	40-30-0	22-13-0	0-0-0	17-16-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	27-41-2	6-14-0	5-10-0	4-5-0	12-12-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	37-33-0	6-14-0	9-6-0	7-2-0	15-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	26-42-2	14-21-0	0-0-0	10-21-2	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	32-38-0	17-18-0	0-0-0	14-19-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	30-39-1	5-15-0	8-7-0	5-4-0	12-13-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	43-26-1	10-10-0	11-4-0	7-2-0	15-10-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bulls	2-2-0 (50%)	4-5-0 (44.4%)	13-11-0 (54.2%)	3-4-1 (42.9%)	11-8-0 (57.9%)	3-2-0 (60%)	0-1-0 (0%)
Celtics	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	1-1-0 (50%)	0-1-0 (0%)	10-10-1 (50%)	8-11-1 (42.1%)	17-8-1 (68%)