NBA | themoneyballer.com

3/21 | 3/23NOP@MIA PHI@LAL BOS@DET OKC@TOR MEM@SAS CLE@MIN LAC@POR IND@GSW

Already a baller? You're in the right place -- you just need to log in. Not a baller yet, but want access to the world's best dashboard for breaking down a game? Awesome. We have a big blue button for that, too:

Pelicans @ Heat [ -3 / 207.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 22, 2024
Heat | 48-41 (53.9%)
Pelicans | 50-38 (56.8%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Heat (-3) a 36.3-34.1% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 207.5 around 4.6-4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Heat have a 36.2% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 5.4% chance of going over the total.

Pelicans Situational Notes

Heat Situational Notes

Pelicans Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/24	DET	NOP -12.5 DET +12.5	218.5	NOP	-	-	-
3/22	MIA	NOP +3 MIA -3	207.5	NOP	-	-	-
3/21	ORL [ 121 ]	NOP -3 ORL +3	207.5	NOP [ 106 ]	-15	-18	+19.5
3/19	BKN [ 91 ]	NOP -7 BKN +7	216.5	NOP [ 104 ]	+13	+6	-21.5
3/16	NOP [ 126 ]	NOP -13 POR +13	215.5	POR [ 107 ]	+19	+6	+17.5
3/15	NOP [ 112 ]	NOP -7 LAC +7	218.5	LAC [ 104 ]	+8	+1	-2.5
3/13	NOP [ 95 ]	NOP -7 CLE +7	215.5	CLE [ 116 ]	-21	-28	-4.5
3/10	ATL [ 103 ]	NOP -6.5 ATL +6.5	220.5	NOP [ 116 ]	+13	+6.5	-1.5
3/8	PHI [ 95 ]	NOP -8 PHI +8	220.5	NOP [ 103 ]	+8	0	-22.5
3/5	TOR [ 98 ]	NOP -9.5 TOR +9.5	230	NOP [ 139 ]	+41	+31.5	+7

Heat Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/24	MIA	MIA -4 CLE +4	203.5	CLE	-	-	-
3/22	MIA	MIA -3 NOP +3	207.5	NOP	-	-	-
3/20	CLE [ 104 ]	MIA +2 CLE -2	203.5	MIA [ 107 ]	+3	+5	+7.5
3/18	PHI [ 98 ]	MIA +2 PHI -2	209	MIA [ 91 ]	-7	-5	-20
3/17	DET [ 101 ]	MIA -5.5 DET +5.5	214	MIA [ 104 ]	+3	-2.5	-9
3/15	DET [ 95 ]	MIA -8.5 DET +8.5	215	MIA [ 108 ]	+13	+4.5	-12
3/13	MIA [ 88 ]	MIA +4.5 DEN -4.5	215	DEN [ 100 ]	-12	-7.5	-27
3/10	MIA [ 108 ]	MIA -11.5 WAS +11.5	227.5	WAS [ 110 ]	-2	-13.5	-9.5
3/8	OKC [ 107 ]	MIA +9 OKC -9	225.5	MIA [ 100 ]	-7	+2	-18.5
3/7	DAL [ 114 ]	MIA +4.5 DAL -4.5	229.5	MIA [ 108 ]	-6	-1.5	-7.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/22	MIA	MIA -3 NOP +3	207.5	NOP	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/23	NOP [ 95 ]	MIA +3.5 NOP -3.5	220	MIA [ 106 ]	+11	+14.5	-19	115.7	110	98.6	11.4	201
1/22	MIA [ 100 ]	MIA -7 NOP +7	217.5	NOP [ 96 ]	+4	-3	-21.5	120.6	99.5	95.6	4	196
1/18	NOP [ 98 ]	MIA -3.5 NOP +3.5	220	MIA [ 124 ]	+26	+22.5	+2	116.8	127.4	100.7	26.7	222

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

Isolate games after ASB:

Include regular season:

Include post-season:

Current matchup:

Efficiency

Pelicans (last 69 games)		Heat (last 69 games)
0.6 (9)	Win Percentage	0.56 (14)
56.72 (4)	ATS Win%	46.15 (24)
43.48 (27)	OU%	36.23 (30)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
117.39 (11)	Offensive Rating	114.04 (20)
112.89 (8)	Defensive Rating	112.23 (5)
97.9 (17)	Pace	96.21 (29)
2.07 (11)	A/TO Ratio	2.04 (14)

Four Factors

Pelicans (last 69 games)		Heat (last 69 games)
55.76 (11)	EFG%	53.79 (18)
54.11 (9)	EFG% Allowed	54.27 (14)
26.14 (7)	FT Rate	25.72 (11)
23.75 (10)	FT Rate Allowed	22.35 (4)
24.37 (16)	OReb%	21.79 (26)
23.08 (7)	OReb% Allowed	21.88 (2)
13.27 (13)	TO Rate	13.11 (10)
14.53 (6)	TO Rate Forced	14.22 (9)

Scoring

Pelicans (last 69 games)		Heat (last 69 games)
115.07 (13)	PPG	110.15 (27)
110.66 (8)	PPG Allowed	108.39 (3)
17.6 (6)	Pts off TO	16.46 (12)
15.61 (10)	Pts off TO Allowed	15.83 (12)
14.05 (14)	2nd Chance Pts	11.54 (27)
12.84 (5)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.22 (8)
15.15 (11)	Fast Break Pts	12.79 (24)
13.62 (9)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13 (5)

Inside the Arc

Pelicans (last 69 games)		Heat (last 69 games)
44.98 (12)	Paint Attempts	42.02 (25)
39.68 (2)	Paint Attempts Allowed	39.89 (3)
57.05 (18)	Paint FG%	56.15 (20)
58.76 (23)	Paint FG% Allowed	58.12 (19)
9.79 (17)	Mid-Range Attempts	9.91 (16)
8.84 (5)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9.35 (9)
0.44 (8)	Mid-Range FG%	0.38 (24)
0.41 (9)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.43 (23)

Three Point Shooting

Pelicans (last 69 games)		Heat (last 69 games)
8.96 (16)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.05 (8)
10.11 (25)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	10.38 (26)
42.59 (1)	Corner 3 FG%	39.32 (12)
37.88 (12)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	37.72 (10)
23.38 (24)	ATB3 Attempts	23.5 (23)
28.45 (27)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	26.22 (17)
36.98 (9)	ATB3 FG%	36.22 (14)
33.99 (2)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	34.56 (5)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Pelicans 1h	49-18-2	22-3-1	4-2-0	15-4-1	8-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Pelicans	42-27	17-9	3-3	14-6	8-8	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Heat 1h	36-29-4	16-6-2	3-4-1	8-7-0	9-12-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	38-31	17-7	0-8	11-4	10-12	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Pelicans 1h	44-24-1	18-7-1	4-2-0	14-6-0	8-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Pelicans	38-28-3	15-11-0	4-2-0	10-8-2	9-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat 1h	36-31-2	11-13-0	4-3-1	7-8-0	14-7-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	31-35-3	10-13-1	1-7-0	6-8-1	14-7-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Pelicans 1h	26-42-1	11-15-0	3-2-1	6-14-0	6-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Pelicans	30-39-0	12-14-0	3-3-0	9-11-0	6-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat 1h	31-37-1	10-13-1	4-4-0	5-10-0	12-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	25-44-0	11-13-0	4-4-0	4-11-0	6-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Pelicans 1h	35-33-1	14-11-1	4-2-0	10-10-0	7-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Pelicans	34-35-0	12-14-0	4-2-0	10-10-0	8-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat 1h	34-33-2	12-10-2	4-4-0	4-11-0	14-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	31-38-0	13-11-0	4-4-0	4-11-0	10-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Pelicans 1h	21-45-3	8-16-2	2-4-0	5-14-1	6-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Pelicans	28-41-0	13-13-0	2-4-0	7-13-0	6-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat 1h	28-41-0	10-14-0	2-6-0	6-9-0	10-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	28-40-1	15-9-0	4-3-1	4-11-0	5-17-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Heat	0-0-0 (-)	5-3-1 (62.5%)	8-8-1 (50%)	7-6-1 (53.8%)	6-9-1 (40%)	4-7-0 (36.4%)	0-2-0 (0%)
Pelicans	0-0-0 (-)	3-2-0 (60%)	8-4-0 (66.7%)	4-5-0 (44.4%)	11-11-0 (50%)	8-6-2 (57.1%)	4-1-0 (80%)