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3/20 | 3/22BKN@MIL NOP@ORL UTA@DAL NYK@DEN CHI@HOU ATL@PHO SAC@WAS

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Nets @ Bucks [ -10.5 / 221.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 21, 2024
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)
Nets | 32-50 (39%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (-10.5) a 39.5-25.7% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 221.5 around 4.5-3.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 57.6% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 4.5% chance of going over the total.

Nets Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Nets Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/23	NYK	BKN +7.5 NYK -7.5	203	BKN	-	-	-
3/21	MIL	BKN +10.5 MIL -10.5	221.5	BKN	-	-	-
3/19	BKN [ 91 ]	BKN +7 NOP -7	216.5	NOP [ 104 ]	-13	-6	-21.5
3/17	SAS [ 122 ]	BKN +1.5 SAS -1.5	218	BKN [ 115 ]	-7	-5.5	+19
3/16	IND [ 121 ]	BKN +9 IND -9	228	BKN [ 100 ]	-21	-12	-7
3/13	ORL [ 114 ]	BKN +7 ORL -7	205	BKN [ 106 ]	-8	-1	+15
3/10	CLE [ 101 ]	BKN +7 CLE -7	207.5	BKN [ 120 ]	+19	+26	+13.5
3/9	CHA [ 110 ]	BKN -6.5 CHA +6.5	207	BKN [ 99 ]	-11	-17.5	+2
3/7	DET [ 118 ]	BKN -1.5 DET +1.5	214.5	BKN [ 112 ]	-6	-7.5	+15.5
3/5	BKN [ 112 ]	BKN +2.5 PHI -2.5	217	PHI [ 107 ]	+5	+7.5	+2

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/24	MIL	MIL -2.5 OKC +2.5	233	OKC	-	-	-
3/21	MIL	MIL -10.5 BKN +10.5	221.5	BKN	-	-	-
3/20	BOS [ 122 ]	MIL +8 BOS -8	225.5	MIL [ 119 ]	-3	+5	+15.5
3/17	MIL [ 140 ]	MIL +2.5 PHO -2.5	227	PHO [ 129 ]	+11	+13.5	+42
3/14	MIL [ 114 ]	MIL -7 PHI +7	220	PHI [ 105 ]	+9	+2	-1
3/12	SAC [ 129 ]	MIL -2 SAC +2	236	MIL [ 94 ]	-35	-37	-13
3/10	LAC [ 117 ]	MIL -5.5 LAC +5.5	222.5	MIL [ 124 ]	+7	+1.5	+18.5
3/8	LAL [ 123 ]	MIL -3.5 LAL +3.5	226.5	MIL [ 122 ]	-1	-4.5	+18.5
3/6	GSW [ 125 ]	MIL +4.5 GSW -4.5	226.5	MIL [ 90 ]	-35	-30.5	-11.5
3/4	MIL [ 113 ]	MIL +3 LAC -3	222	LAC [ 106 ]	+7	+10	-3

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/21	MIL	MIL -10.5 BKN +10.5	221.5	BKN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12/27	BKN [ 122 ]	MIL -10 BKN +10	244	MIL [ 144 ]	+22	+12	+22	120.7	143.2	121.3	21.9	266
11/6	BKN [ 125 ]	MIL -4.5 BKN +4.5	233	MIL [ 129 ]	+4	-0.5	+21	121.9	127	123.1	3.9	254
3/9	MIL [ 118 ]	MIL -9.5 BKN +9.5	233.5	BKN [ 113 ]	+5	-4.5	-2.5	124.6	113.7	108.8	4.8	231
2/28	BKN [ 104 ]	MIL -6.5 BKN +6.5	232	MIL [ 118 ]	+14	+7.5	-10	131	108.1	95.3	12.8	222
12/23	BKN [ 118 ]	MIL +2.5 BKN -2.5	230	MIL [ 100 ]	-18	-15.5	-12	115.8	103.6	122.2	-18.6	218
10/26	MIL [ 110 ]	MIL -3 BKN +3	230	BKN [ 99 ]	+11	+8	-21	123.4	107	96.3	10.7	209

Filters

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Current matchup:

Efficiency

Nets (last 69 games)		Bucks (last 69 games)
0.39 (23)	Win Percentage	0.6 (9)
46.15 (23)	ATS Win%	44.12 (27)
47.06 (22)	OU%	50 (12)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
113.16 (24)	Offensive Rating	118.36 (7)
116.12 (19)	Defensive Rating	115.75 (15)
96.92 (26)	Pace	99.89 (8)
1.95 (20)	A/TO Ratio	2.05 (12)

Four Factors

Nets (last 69 games)		Bucks (last 69 games)
53.08 (25)	EFG%	56.76 (4)
54.35 (15)	EFG% Allowed	53.85 (9)
23.42 (22)	FT Rate	27 (5)
23.93 (11)	FT Rate Allowed	23.4 (8)
25.17 (10)	OReb%	21.83 (26)
23.96 (13)	OReb% Allowed	22.83 (5)
13.45 (17)	TO Rate	12.85 (6)
12.94 (23)	TO Rate Forced	11.96 (30)

Scoring

Nets (last 69 games)		Bucks (last 69 games)
110.37 (26)	PPG	118.98 (5)
113.26 (14)	PPG Allowed	116.35 (18)
14.93 (27)	Pts off TO	14.54 (29)
15.4 (9)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.96 (6)
14.34 (12)	2nd Chance Pts	13.07 (23)
13.98 (19)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (14)
13.23 (21)	Fast Break Pts	12.68 (23)
15.62 (25)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.63 (9)

Inside the Arc

Nets (last 69 games)		Bucks (last 69 games)
43.09 (21)	Paint Attempts	38.49 (30)
43.24 (9)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.46 (21)
55.19 (26)	Paint FG%	61.28 (1)
55.87 (7)	Paint FG% Allowed	57.35 (15)
9.32 (20)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.95 (4)
10.28 (18)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.12 (30)
0.39 (24)	Mid-Range FG%	0.45 (7)
0.43 (24)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (18)

Three Point Shooting

Nets (last 69 games)		Bucks (last 69 games)
10.02 (7)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.13 (5)
7.9 (7)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.85 (6)
41.12 (6)	Corner 3 FG%	41.16 (5)
41.82 (29)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.8 (3)
26.4 (13)	ATB3 Attempts	27.82 (8)
26.87 (21)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.28 (23)
34.64 (26)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (14)
36.09 (16)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.54 (12)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nets 1h	32-36-1	13-4-0	4-13-1	6-2-0	9-17-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nets	26-43	13-4	3-15	3-5	7-19	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bucks 1h	39-28-1	22-9-0	2-1-0	13-13-0	2-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	44-25	24-7	3-0	16-11	1-7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nets 1h	33-35-1	11-6-0	6-11-1	5-3-0	11-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nets	30-35-4	12-5-0	7-8-3	2-6-0	9-16-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	29-34-5	18-10-3	2-1-0	6-18-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	30-38-1	12-18-1	3-0-0	12-15-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nets 1h	27-40-2	8-9-0	8-9-1	3-5-0	8-17-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nets	32-36-1	9-8-0	8-9-1	4-4-0	11-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	30-38-0	13-18-0	1-2-0	13-13-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	35-33-1	18-13-0	1-2-0	14-12-1	2-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nets 1h	32-37-0	9-8-0	8-10-0	4-4-0	11-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nets	38-31-0	11-6-0	9-9-0	4-4-0	14-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	29-38-1	14-17-0	2-1-0	12-14-0	1-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	36-33-0	18-13-0	2-1-0	13-14-0	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nets 1h	26-43-0	4-13-0	12-6-0	1-7-0	9-17-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nets	34-35-0	5-12-0	9-9-0	5-3-0	15-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	33-34-1	13-17-1	1-2-0	15-11-0	4-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	39-28-2	19-12-0	1-2-0	16-9-2	3-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	4-4-0 (50%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	13-12-0 (52%)	4-8-1 (33.3%)	5-10-0 (33.3%)
Nets	0-3-2 (0%)	4-7-0 (36.4%)	11-11-1 (50%)	7-5-1 (58.3%)	4-6-0 (40%)	4-2-0 (66.7%)	0-1-0 (0%)