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Heat @ Cavaliers [ -2 / 203.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 20, 2024
Cavaliers | 53-41 (56.4%)
Heat | 48-41 (53.9%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Cavaliers (-2) a 57.7-48.4% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 203.5 around 4.8-3.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Cavaliers have a 55.4% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 4.5% chance of going over the total.

Heat Situational Notes

Cavaliers Situational Notes

Heat Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/22	MIA	MIA -3 NOP +3	207.5	NOP	-	-	-
3/20	CLE	MIA +2 CLE -2	203.5	MIA	-	-	-
3/18	PHI [ 98 ]	MIA +2 PHI -2	209	MIA [ 91 ]	-7	-5	-20
3/17	DET [ 101 ]	MIA -5.5 DET +5.5	214	MIA [ 104 ]	+3	-2.5	-9
3/15	DET [ 95 ]	MIA -8.5 DET +8.5	215	MIA [ 108 ]	+13	+4.5	-12
3/13	MIA [ 88 ]	MIA +4.5 DEN -4.5	215	DEN [ 100 ]	-12	-7.5	-27
3/10	MIA [ 108 ]	MIA -11.5 WAS +11.5	227.5	WAS [ 110 ]	-2	-13.5	-9.5
3/8	OKC [ 107 ]	MIA +9 OKC -9	225.5	MIA [ 100 ]	-7	+2	-18.5
3/7	DAL [ 114 ]	MIA +4.5 DAL -4.5	229.5	MIA [ 108 ]	-6	-1.5	-7.5
3/5	MIA [ 118 ]	MIA -11.5 DET +11.5	217.5	DET [ 110 ]	+8	-3.5	+10.5

Cavaliers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/22	MIN	CLE +7.5 MIN -7.5	206.5	CLE	-	-	-
3/20	CLE	CLE -2 MIA +2	203.5	MIA	-	-	-
3/18	IND [ 103 ]	CLE +6.5 IND -6.5	225	CLE [ 108 ]	+5	+11.5	-14
3/16	HOU [ 117 ]	CLE -4 HOU +4	214.5	CLE [ 103 ]	-14	-18	+5.5
3/13	NOP [ 95 ]	CLE +7 NOP -7	215.5	CLE [ 116 ]	+21	+28	-4.5
3/11	CLE [ 111 ]	CLE +6.5 PHO -6.5	221	PHO [ 117 ]	-6	+0.5	+7
3/10	CLE [ 101 ]	CLE -7 BKN +7	207.5	BKN [ 120 ]	-19	-26	+13.5
3/8	CLE [ 113 ]	CLE -1 MIN +1	207	MIN [ 104 ]	+9	+8	+10
3/6	ATL [ 112 ]	CLE +2.5 ATL -2.5	216	CLE [ 101 ]	-11	-8.5	-3
3/5	CLE [ 105 ]	CLE +8.5 BOS -8.5	217	BOS [ 104 ]	+1	+9.5	-8

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/24	MIA	CLE +4 MIA -4	203.5	CLE	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/20	CLE	CLE -2 MIA +2	203.5	MIA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12/8	MIA [ 99 ]	CLE -2 MIA +2	220	CLE [ 111 ]	+12	+10	-10	118.8	112.1	100	12.1	210
11/22	CLE [ 96 ]	CLE +3 MIA -3	211	MIA [ 129 ]	-33	-30	+14	112.9	102.1	137.2	-35.1	225
3/10	MIA [ 119 ]	CLE +3 MIA -3	212	CLE [ 115 ]	-4	-1	+22	114.4	120.6	124.8	-4.2	234
3/8	MIA [ 100 ]	CLE -1 MIA +1	215.5	CLE [ 104 ]	+4	+3	-11.5	114.3	109.2	105	4.2	204
1/31	CLE [ 97 ]	CLE -3.5 MIA +3.5	211.5	MIA [ 100 ]	-3	-6.5	-14.5	113	103	106.2	-3.2	197
11/20	CLE [ 113 ]	CLE -7 MIA +7	213	MIA [ 87 ]	+26	+19	-13	111	122.2	94.1	28.1	200

Filters

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Efficiency

Heat (last 68 games)		Cavaliers (last 68 games)
0.56 (14)	Win Percentage	0.59 (10)
45.31 (26)	ATS Win%	51.52 (13)
35.29 (30)	OU%	47.06 (22)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
114.04 (20)	Offensive Rating	115.21 (18)
112.23 (4)	Defensive Rating	112.74 (8)
96.21 (29)	Pace	97.15 (25)
2.04 (13)	A/TO Ratio	2.07 (10)

Four Factors

Heat (last 68 games)		Cavaliers (last 68 games)
53.79 (18)	EFG%	55.67 (13)
54.27 (15)	EFG% Allowed	53.48 (6)
25.72 (11)	FT Rate	23.38 (21)
22.35 (4)	FT Rate Allowed	24.02 (11)
21.79 (26)	OReb%	23.19 (21)
21.88 (2)	OReb% Allowed	23.09 (6)
13.11 (10)	TO Rate	13.87 (19)
14.22 (9)	TO Rate Forced	13.91 (12)

Scoring

Heat (last 68 games)		Cavaliers (last 68 games)
110.15 (27)	PPG	112.63 (20)
108.39 (3)	PPG Allowed	110.22 (6)
16.46 (13)	Pts off TO	16.6 (12)
15.83 (12)	Pts off TO Allowed	17.37 (24)
11.54 (27)	2nd Chance Pts	13.59 (17)
13.22 (8)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	12.87 (4)
12.79 (24)	Fast Break Pts	14.78 (12)
13 (5)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	14.34 (17)

Inside the Arc

Heat (last 68 games)		Cavaliers (last 68 games)
42.02 (25)	Paint Attempts	43.45 (20)
39.89 (2)	Paint Attempts Allowed	42.2 (6)
56.15 (20)	Paint FG%	57.65 (14)
58.12 (20)	Paint FG% Allowed	55.14 (4)
9.91 (17)	Mid-Range Attempts	6.94 (28)
9.35 (9)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	11.5 (29)
0.38 (24)	Mid-Range FG%	0.46 (4)
0.43 (23)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.41 (10)

Three Point Shooting

Heat (last 68 games)		Cavaliers (last 68 games)
10.05 (8)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.18 (12)
10.38 (26)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	9.54 (22)
39.32 (12)	Corner 3 FG%	37.05 (26)
37.72 (11)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	39.39 (18)
23.5 (23)	ATB3 Attempts	27.46 (8)
26.22 (17)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	24.06 (5)
36.22 (14)	ATB3 FG%	36.77 (9)
34.56 (5)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	36.54 (20)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Heat 1h	35-29-4	16-6-2	3-4-1	8-7-0	8-12-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	37-31	17-7	0-8	11-4	9-12	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Cavaliers 1h	40-25-3	19-7-0	4-5-0	11-6-2	6-7-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	43-25	19-7	3-6	13-6	8-6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Heat 1h	35-31-2	11-13-0	4-3-1	7-8-0	13-7-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	30-35-3	10-13-1	1-7-0	6-8-1	13-7-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	34-30-4	14-10-2	4-5-0	8-10-1	8-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	34-32-2	13-12-1	4-5-0	8-10-1	9-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Heat 1h	30-37-1	10-13-1	4-4-0	5-10-0	11-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	24-44-0	11-13-0	4-4-0	4-11-0	5-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	28-37-3	9-15-2	5-4-0	6-12-1	8-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	32-36-0	14-12-0	6-3-0	7-12-0	5-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Heat 1h	33-33-2	12-10-2	4-4-0	4-11-0	13-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	30-38-0	13-11-0	4-4-0	4-11-0	9-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	29-37-2	15-10-1	3-6-0	6-13-0	5-8-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	31-36-1	13-13-0	5-4-0	6-12-1	7-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Heat 1h	27-41-0	10-14-0	2-6-0	6-9-0	9-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	27-40-1	15-9-0	4-3-1	4-11-0	4-17-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	25-42-1	8-17-1	6-3-0	7-12-0	4-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	29-39-0	13-13-0	5-4-0	6-13-0	5-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Cavaliers	1-0-0 (100%)	3-0-1 (100%)	9-7-0 (56.3%)	6-5-0 (54.5%)	9-9-1 (50%)	3-5-0 (37.5%)	3-6-0 (33.3%)
Heat	0-0-0 (-)	5-3-1 (62.5%)	8-8-1 (50%)	6-6-1 (50%)	6-9-1 (40%)	4-7-0 (36.4%)	0-2-0 (0%)