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Hornets @ Magic [ -13 / 202.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 19, 2024
Magic | 50-39 (56.2%)
Hornets | 21-61 (25.6%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Magic (-13) a 44.4-37.3% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 202.5 around 4.5-2.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Magic have a 60.9% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 4.6% chance of going over the total.

Hornets Situational Notes

Magic Situational Notes

Hornets Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/23	ATL	CHA +8 ATL -8	214	CHA	-	-	-
3/19	ORL	CHA +13 ORL -13	202.5	CHA	-	-	-
3/16	PHI [ 109 ]	CHA +10.5 PHI -10.5	209	CHA [ 98 ]	-11	-0.5	-2
3/15	CHA [ 96 ]	CHA +10 PHO -10	218	PHO [ 107 ]	-11	-1	-15
3/13	MEM [ 98 ]	CHA -2 MEM +2	205.5	CHA [ 110 ]	+12	+10	+2.5
3/11	DET [ 114 ]	CHA +4 DET -4	217	CHA [ 97 ]	-17	-13	-6
3/9	CHA [ 110 ]	CHA +6.5 BKN -6.5	207	BKN [ 99 ]	+11	+17.5	+2
3/8	WAS [ 112 ]	CHA +3 WAS -3	225	CHA [ 100 ]	-12	-9	-13
3/5	CHA [ 89 ]	CHA +7.5 ORL -7.5	207.5	ORL [ 101 ]	-12	-4.5	-17.5
3/3	TOR [ 111 ]	CHA +7 TOR -7	223	CHA [ 106 ]	-5	+2	-6

Magic Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/21	ORL	ORL +3 NOP -3	207.5	NOP	-	-	-
3/19	ORL	ORL -13 CHA +13	202.5	CHA	-	-	-
3/17	ORL [ 111 ]	ORL -11 TOR +11	218.5	TOR [ 96 ]	+15	+4	-11.5
3/15	TOR [ 103 ]	ORL -8.5 TOR +8.5	217	ORL [ 113 ]	+10	+1.5	-1
3/13	ORL [ 114 ]	ORL -7 BKN +7	205	BKN [ 106 ]	+8	+1	+15
3/10	ORL [ 97 ]	ORL -2 IND +2	223.5	IND [ 111 ]	-14	-16	-15.5
3/8	NYK [ 98 ]	ORL +2 NYK -2	207.5	ORL [ 74 ]	-24	-22	-35.5
3/6	WAS [ 109 ]	ORL -8 WAS +8	223.5	ORL [ 119 ]	+10	+2	+4.5
3/5	CHA [ 89 ]	ORL -7.5 CHA +7.5	207.5	ORL [ 101 ]	+12	+4.5	-17.5
3/3	ORL [ 113 ]	ORL -11 DET +11	217.5	DET [ 91 ]	+22	+11	-13.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
4/5	CHA	ORL -11.5 CHA +11.5	205.5	ORL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/19	ORL	ORL -13 CHA +13	202.5	CHA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/5	CHA [ 89 ]	ORL -7.5 CHA +7.5	207.5	ORL [ 101 ]	+12	+4.5	-17.5	108.5	111.7	98.4	13.3	190
11/26	ORL [ 130 ]	ORL -6 CHA +6	228	CHA [ 117 ]	+13	+7	+19	127.4	122.4	110.2	12.2	247
3/3	CHA [ 106 ]	ORL -4 CHA +4	225	ORL [ 117 ]	+11	+7	-2	119.4	117.5	106.5	11.1	223
2/5	CHA [ 113 ]	ORL +2 CHA -2	236	ORL [ 119 ]	+6	+8	-4	117.1	121.9	115.8	6.1	232
11/14	ORL [ 105 ]	ORL +2 CHA -2	225	CHA [ 112 ]	-7	-5	-8	111.2	113.3	120.8	-7.6	217
10/28	ORL [ 113 ]	ORL +2 CHA -2	221	CHA [ 93 ]	+20	+22	-15	121.1	112	92.2	19.8	206

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

Isolate games after ASB:

Include regular season:

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Current matchup:

Efficiency

Hornets (last 68 games)		Magic (last 68 games)
0.26 (27)	Win Percentage	0.57 (13)
40.3 (28)	ATS Win%	67.69 (1)
45.59 (24)	OU%	45.59 (23)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
109.3 (29)	Offensive Rating	113.37 (24)
119.81 (28)	Defensive Rating	111.29 (3)
97.27 (24)	Pace	96.95 (26)
1.8 (24)	A/TO Ratio	1.68 (28)

Four Factors

Hornets (last 68 games)		Magic (last 68 games)
52.93 (27)	EFG%	54.13 (16)
57.21 (30)	EFG% Allowed	54.28 (14)
21.2 (30)	FT Rate	28.75 (1)
23.63 (9)	FT Rate Allowed	26.42 (24)
21.14 (27)	OReb%	25.34 (7)
25.46 (23)	OReb% Allowed	21.89 (2)
14.12 (21)	TO Rate	15.09 (26)
13.97 (11)	TO Rate Forced	15.44 (2)

Scoring

Hornets (last 68 games)		Magic (last 68 games)
106.59 (29)	PPG	110.46 (26)
116.83 (19)	PPG Allowed	108.44 (3)
15.24 (26)	Pts off TO	18.59 (2)
17.09 (23)	Pts off TO Allowed	16.44 (17)
12.15 (26)	2nd Chance Pts	14.39 (11)
14.15 (19)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	12.12 (2)
12.48 (25)	Fast Break Pts	12.44 (26)
13.76 (10)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	14.5 (18)

Inside the Arc

Hornets (last 68 games)		Magic (last 68 games)
42.49 (23)	Paint Attempts	44.13 (16)
43.33 (11)	Paint Attempts Allowed	41.2 (4)
56.34 (20)	Paint FG%	58.66 (11)
60.62 (29)	Paint FG% Allowed	57.61 (17)
10.5 (13)	Mid-Range Attempts	9.48 (18)
8.21 (1)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	10.61 (21)
0.38 (23)	Mid-Range FG%	0.38 (26)
0.42 (17)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.43 (21)

Three Point Shooting

Hornets (last 68 games)		Magic (last 68 games)
7.83 (26)	Corner 3 Attempts	8.54 (20)
9.45 (21)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	8.09 (8)
36.14 (29)	Corner 3 FG%	36.71 (28)
40 (19)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.5 (2)
25.91 (15)	ATB3 Attempts	22.57 (28)
26.59 (20)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	23.88 (4)
35.62 (17)	ATB3 FG%	34.9 (21)
37.06 (24)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.9 (13)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	16-50-2	1-3-0	7-22-0	1-0-0	7-25-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	17-51	2-2	7-22	1-0	7-27	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Magic 1h	38-29-1	14-4-0	5-9-0	9-2-0	10-14-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic	40-28	15-3	8-6	9-2	8-17	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	30-35-3	1-3-0	14-14-1	1-0-0	14-18-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	27-41-0	0-4-0	14-15-0	1-0-0	12-22-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic 1h	35-33-0	11-7-0	5-9-0	5-6-0	14-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic	45-22-1	14-4-0	9-5-0	8-3-0	14-10-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	20-47-1	1-3-0	9-19-1	0-1-0	10-24-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	31-37-0	2-2-0	14-15-0	1-0-0	14-20-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic 1h	28-39-1	6-12-0	6-8-0	6-5-0	10-14-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic	30-37-1	9-9-0	5-9-0	4-7-0	12-12-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	21-45-2	1-3-0	10-19-0	1-0-0	9-23-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	30-37-1	1-3-0	13-15-1	1-0-0	15-19-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic 1h	27-41-0	8-10-0	6-8-0	5-6-0	8-17-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic	30-36-2	10-8-0	7-5-2	4-7-0	9-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	25-43-0	1-3-0	11-18-0	0-1-0	13-21-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	33-35-0	2-2-0	14-15-0	0-1-0	17-17-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic 1h	28-39-1	6-12-0	6-8-0	4-6-1	12-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Magic	30-38-0	8-10-0	7-7-0	5-6-0	10-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Magic	0-0-1 (-)	3-1-0 (75%)	14-10-2 (58.3%)	8-5-0 (61.5%)	7-3-0 (70%)	7-1-0 (87.5%)	5-1-0 (83.3%)
Hornets	11-15-1 (42.3%)	6-9-0 (40%)	9-11-0 (45%)	1-2-0 (33.3%)	0-3-0 (0%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)