NBA | themoneyballer.com

3/13 | 3/15PHI@MIL LAC@CHI PHO@BOS WAS@HOU DAL@OKC NYK@POR

Already a baller? You're in the right place -- you just need to log in. Not a baller yet, but want access to the world's best dashboard for breaking down a game? Awesome. We have a big blue button for that, too:

76ers @ Bucks [ -7 / 220 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 14, 2024
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)
Seventysixers | 50-39 (56.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (-7) a 38-35.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 220 around 5-2.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 49.3% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 5.1% chance of going over the total.

Seventysixers Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Seventysixers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/16	PHI	PHI -10.5 CHA +10.5	209	CHA	-	-	-
3/14	MIL	PHI +7 MIL -7	220	PHI	-	-	-
3/12	NYK [ 106 ]	PHI +6 NYK -6	208.5	PHI [ 79 ]	-27	-21	-23.5
3/10	NYK [ 73 ]	PHI +7 NYK -7	211.5	PHI [ 79 ]	+6	+13	-59.5
3/8	PHI [ 95 ]	PHI +8 NOP -8	220.5	NOP [ 103 ]	-8	0	-22.5
3/6	PHI [ 109 ]	PHI -6.5 MEM +6.5	209.5	MEM [ 115 ]	-6	-12.5	+14.5
3/5	BKN [ 112 ]	PHI -2.5 BKN +2.5	217	PHI [ 107 ]	-5	-7.5	+2
3/3	DAL [ 116 ]	PHI +7.5 DAL -7.5	237	PHI [ 120 ]	+4	+11.5	-1
3/1	PHI [ 121 ]	PHI -11.5 CHA +11.5	213.5	CHA [ 114 ]	+7	-4.5	+21.5
2/27	BOS [ 117 ]	PHI +12 BOS -12	230.5	PHI [ 99 ]	-18	-6	-14.5

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/17	MIL	MIL +2.5 PHO -2.5	227	PHO	-	-	-
3/14	MIL	MIL -7 PHI +7	220	PHI	-	-	-
3/12	SAC [ 129 ]	MIL -2 SAC +2	236	MIL [ 94 ]	-35	-37	-13
3/10	LAC [ 117 ]	MIL -5.5 LAC +5.5	222.5	MIL [ 124 ]	+7	+1.5	+18.5
3/8	LAL [ 123 ]	MIL -3.5 LAL +3.5	226.5	MIL [ 122 ]	-1	-4.5	+18.5
3/6	GSW [ 125 ]	MIL +4.5 GSW -4.5	226.5	MIL [ 90 ]	-35	-30.5	-11.5
3/4	MIL [ 113 ]	MIL +3 LAC -3	222	LAC [ 106 ]	+7	+10	-3
3/1	CHI [ 97 ]	MIL -4 CHI +4	221.5	MIL [ 113 ]	+16	+12	-11.5
2/29	CHA [ 99 ]	MIL -11.5 CHA +11.5	219	MIL [ 111 ]	+12	+0.5	-9
2/27	MIL [ 123 ]	MIL -14.5 CHA +14.5	220.5	CHA [ 85 ]	+38	+23.5	-12.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/14	MIL	MIL -7 PHI +7	220	PHI	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/25	PHI [ 98 ]	MIL -4.5 PHI +4.5	235	MIL [ 119 ]	+21	+16.5	-18	115.1	124	102.1	21.9	217
10/26	MIL [ 118 ]	MIL -6 PHI +6	228	PHI [ 117 ]	+1	-5	+7	122	116.1	115.1	1	235
4/2	MIL [ 117 ]	MIL -5 PHI +5	236	PHI [ 104 ]	+13	+8	-15	110.2	127.4	113.3	14.2	221
3/4	MIL [ 130 ]	MIL -5 PHI +5	233	PHI [ 133 ]	-3	-8	+30	113.2	137.8	141	-3.2	263
11/18	PHI [ 110 ]	MIL +1.5 PHI -1.5	212	MIL [ 102 ]	-8	-6.5	0	121.2	101	108.9	-7.9	212

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

Isolate games after ASB:

Include regular season:

Include post-season:

Current matchup:

Efficiency

76ers (last 65 games)		Bucks (last 66 games)
0.57 (14)	Win Percentage	0.6 (8)
51.56 (13)	ATS Win%	41.54 (28)
52.31 (8)	OU%	49.23 (13)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
116.9 (14)	Offensive Rating	118.36 (7)
113.79 (11)	Defensive Rating	115.75 (15)
97.54 (20)	Pace	99.89 (9)
2.07 (9)	A/TO Ratio	2.05 (12)

Four Factors

76ers (last 65 games)		Bucks (last 66 games)
53.2 (25)	EFG%	56.76 (4)
53.7 (9)	EFG% Allowed	53.85 (10)
26.38 (8)	FT Rate	27 (5)
27.13 (25)	FT Rate Allowed	23.4 (7)
24.84 (14)	OReb%	21.83 (27)
25.66 (25)	OReb% Allowed	22.83 (5)
12.24 (1)	TO Rate	12.85 (6)
14.94 (5)	TO Rate Forced	11.96 (29)

Scoring

76ers (last 65 games)		Bucks (last 66 games)
114.6 (15)	PPG	118.98 (6)
111.55 (9)	PPG Allowed	116.35 (18)
17.74 (5)	Pts off TO	14.54 (29)
14.35 (2)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.96 (6)
15.04 (6)	2nd Chance Pts	13.07 (23)
13.62 (12)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (14)
15.79 (5)	Fast Break Pts	12.68 (24)
15.39 (25)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.63 (9)

Inside the Arc

76ers (last 65 games)		Bucks (last 66 games)
45.88 (8)	Paint Attempts	38.49 (30)
44 (16)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.46 (21)
54.86 (26)	Paint FG%	61.28 (2)
56.9 (12)	Paint FG% Allowed	57.35 (16)
10.2 (14)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.95 (4)
8.84 (4)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.12 (30)
0.42 (15)	Mid-Range FG%	0.45 (7)
0.4 (7)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (18)

Three Point Shooting

76ers (last 65 games)		Bucks (last 66 games)
7.56 (27)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.13 (6)
8.39 (13)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.85 (7)
39.68 (10)	Corner 3 FG%	41.16 (6)
38.37 (12)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.8 (4)
25.67 (16)	ATB3 Attempts	27.82 (8)
25.16 (12)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.28 (23)
35.44 (18)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (15)
34.66 (6)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.54 (12)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Seventysixers 1h	36-28-1	16-9-1	4-4-0	9-6-0	7-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Seventysixers	36-29	17-9	2-6	12-3	5-11	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bucks 1h	38-26-1	22-8-0	1-1-0	13-13-0	2-4-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	42-24	23-7	2-0	16-11	1-6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Seventysixers 1h	32-31-2	13-13-0	4-4-0	6-7-2	9-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Seventysixers	33-31-1	15-11-0	2-5-1	9-6-0	7-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	28-32-5	18-9-3	1-1-0	6-18-2	3-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	27-38-1	11-18-1	2-0-0	12-15-0	2-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Seventysixers 1h	28-35-2	13-12-1	2-6-0	8-7-0	5-10-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Seventysixers	34-31-0	15-11-0	2-6-0	10-5-0	7-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	27-38-0	12-18-0	0-2-0	13-13-0	2-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	33-32-1	18-12-0	0-2-0	14-12-1	1-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Seventysixers 1h	29-35-1	15-11-0	2-6-0	7-7-1	5-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Seventysixers	36-29-0	17-9-0	1-7-0	10-5-0	8-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	27-37-1	14-16-0	1-1-0	12-14-0	0-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	33-33-0	17-13-0	1-1-0	13-14-0	2-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Seventysixers 1h	36-29-0	17-9-0	3-5-0	9-6-0	7-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Seventysixers	34-31-0	14-12-0	3-5-0	9-6-0	8-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	30-34-1	12-17-1	0-2-0	15-11-0	3-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	37-27-2	19-11-0	0-2-0	16-9-2	2-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	13-12-0 (52%)	3-8-1 (27.3%)	5-10-0 (33.3%)
Seventysixers	2-1-0 (66.7%)	2-0-1 (100%)	5-9-0 (35.7%)	4-5-0 (44.4%)	9-8-0 (52.9%)	4-3-0 (57.1%)	7-5-0 (58.3%)