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3/14 | 3/16PHO@CHA ATL@UTA LAC@NOP MIA@DET ORL@TOR DEN@SAS

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Suns @ Hornets [ +10 / 218 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 15, 2024
Hornets | 21-61 (25.6%)
Suns | 49-37 (57%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Hornets (+10) a 50.4-73.4% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 218 around 4.2-2.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Hornets have a 55.3% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 4.2% chance of going over the total.

Suns Situational Notes

Hornets Situational Notes

Suns Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/17	MIL	PHO -2.5 MIL +2.5	227	PHO	-	-	-
3/15	CHA	PHO -10 CHA +10	218	PHO	-	-	-
3/14	BOS [ 127 ]	PHO +5.5 BOS -5.5	226	PHO [ 112 ]	-15	-9.5	+13
3/11	CLE [ 111 ]	PHO -6.5 CLE +6.5	221	PHO [ 117 ]	+6	-0.5	+7
3/9	PHO [ 107 ]	PHO +5.5 BOS -5.5	225.5	BOS [ 117 ]	-10	-4.5	-1.5
3/7	PHO [ 120 ]	PHO -10.5 TOR +10.5	234	TOR [ 113 ]	+7	-3.5	-1
3/5	DEN [ 107 ]	PHO +8.5 DEN -8.5	224	PHO [ 117 ]	+10	+18.5	0
3/3	PHO [ 110 ]	PHO +4.5 OKC -4.5	234	OKC [ 118 ]	-8	-3.5	-6
3/2	PHO [ 109 ]	PHO -9 HOU +9	232	HOU [ 118 ]	-9	-18	-5
2/29	PHO [ 110 ]	PHO -8.5 HOU +8.5	231.5	HOU [ 105 ]	+5	-3.5	-16.5

Hornets Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/16	PHI	CHA +10.5 PHI -10.5	209	CHA	-	-	-
3/15	CHA	CHA +10 PHO -10	218	PHO	-	-	-
3/13	MEM [ 98 ]	CHA -2 MEM +2	205.5	CHA [ 110 ]	+12	+10	+2.5
3/11	DET [ 114 ]	CHA +4 DET -4	217	CHA [ 97 ]	-17	-13	-6
3/9	CHA [ 110 ]	CHA +6.5 BKN -6.5	207	BKN [ 99 ]	+11	+17.5	+2
3/8	WAS [ 112 ]	CHA +3 WAS -3	225	CHA [ 100 ]	-12	-9	-13
3/5	CHA [ 89 ]	CHA +7.5 ORL -7.5	207.5	ORL [ 101 ]	-12	-4.5	-17.5
3/3	TOR [ 111 ]	CHA +7 TOR -7	223	CHA [ 106 ]	-5	+2	-6
3/1	PHI [ 121 ]	CHA +11.5 PHI -11.5	213.5	CHA [ 114 ]	-7	+4.5	+21.5
2/29	CHA [ 99 ]	CHA +11.5 MIL -11.5	219	MIL [ 111 ]	-12	-0.5	-9

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/15	CHA	CHA +10 PHO -10	218	PHO	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12/29	PHO [ 133 ]	CHA +16 PHO -16	232	CHA [ 119 ]	-14	+2	+20	108.8	131.3	146.7	-15.4	252
3/1	CHA [ 91 ]	CHA +10.5 PHO -10.5	228	PHO [ 105 ]	-14	-3.5	-32	121.2	90.1	104	-13.9	196
1/24	PHO [ 128 ]	CHA +7.5 PHO -7.5	222.5	CHA [ 97 ]	-31	-23.5	+2.5	122.4	95.1	125.5	-30.4	225

Filters

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Efficiency

Suns (last 66 games)		Hornets (last 66 games)
0.59 (9)	Win Percentage	0.26 (27)
36.51 (29)	ATS Win%	41.54 (28)
49.21 (13)	OU%	46.97 (22)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
117.68 (11)	Offensive Rating	109.3 (28)
114.64 (12)	Defensive Rating	119.81 (28)
98.4 (16)	Pace	97.27 (25)
1.82 (22)	A/TO Ratio	1.8 (25)

Four Factors

Suns (last 66 games)		Hornets (last 66 games)
56.52 (6)	EFG%	52.93 (27)
53.65 (8)	EFG% Allowed	57.21 (30)
27.28 (5)	FT Rate	21.2 (30)
23.07 (6)	FT Rate Allowed	23.63 (9)
24.97 (11)	OReb%	21.14 (27)
24.47 (18)	OReb% Allowed	25.46 (23)
15.03 (25)	TO Rate	14.12 (21)
12.92 (25)	TO Rate Forced	13.97 (11)

Scoring

Suns (last 66 games)		Hornets (last 66 games)
116.4 (12)	PPG	106.59 (29)
113.38 (14)	PPG Allowed	116.83 (19)
15.9 (21)	Pts off TO	15.24 (26)
18.19 (25)	Pts off TO Allowed	17.09 (23)
12.84 (23)	2nd Chance Pts	12.15 (26)
14.06 (19)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	14.15 (20)
13.36 (21)	Fast Break Pts	12.48 (25)
14.49 (20)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.76 (9)

Inside the Arc

Suns (last 66 games)		Hornets (last 66 games)
39.81 (27)	Paint Attempts	42.49 (23)
44.15 (20)	Paint Attempts Allowed	43.33 (11)
59.13 (9)	Paint FG%	56.34 (20)
56.32 (10)	Paint FG% Allowed	60.62 (29)
13.79 (2)	Mid-Range Attempts	10.5 (13)
10.56 (22)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	8.21 (1)
0.48 (2)	Mid-Range FG%	0.38 (23)
0.38 (1)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (16)

Three Point Shooting

Suns (last 66 games)		Hornets (last 66 games)
8.38 (22)	Corner 3 Attempts	7.83 (26)
9.17 (20)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	9.45 (21)
40.5 (9)	Corner 3 FG%	36.14 (29)
36.07 (2)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	40 (20)
24.16 (22)	ATB3 Attempts	25.91 (15)
26.6 (21)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	26.59 (20)
37.25 (7)	ATB3 FG%	35.62 (17)
36.94 (20)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	37.06 (25)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Suns 1h	38-26-2	19-11-0	1-4-0	11-6-2	7-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Suns	38-28	21-9	0-5	12-7	5-7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Hornets 1h	16-48-2	1-3-0	7-21-0	1-0-0	7-24-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	17-49	2-2	7-21	1-0	7-26	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Suns 1h	37-29-0	18-12-0	1-4-0	11-8-0	7-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Suns	24-39-3	11-17-2	0-5-0	7-11-1	6-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets 1h	30-34-2	1-3-0	14-13-1	1-0-0	14-18-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	27-39-0	0-4-0	14-14-0	1-0-0	12-21-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Suns 1h	29-36-1	15-15-0	2-3-0	9-10-0	3-8-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Suns	31-35-0	15-15-0	2-3-0	11-8-0	3-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets 1h	20-45-1	1-3-0	9-18-1	0-1-0	10-23-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	31-35-0	2-2-0	14-14-0	1-0-0	14-19-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Suns 1h	37-28-1	16-13-1	1-4-0	12-7-0	8-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Suns	31-34-1	13-17-0	1-3-1	12-7-0	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets 1h	21-43-2	1-3-0	10-18-0	1-0-0	9-22-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	30-35-1	1-3-0	13-14-1	1-0-0	15-18-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Suns 1h	28-37-1	12-17-1	4-1-0	9-10-0	3-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Suns	33-32-1	17-13-0	3-2-0	10-8-1	3-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets 1h	25-41-0	1-3-0	11-17-0	0-1-0	13-20-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	33-33-0	2-2-0	14-14-0	0-1-0	17-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Hornets	11-13-1 (45.8%)	6-9-0 (40%)	9-11-0 (45%)	1-2-0 (33.3%)	0-3-0 (0%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)
Suns	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	5-8-0 (38.5%)	2-6-1 (25%)	12-15-1 (44.4%)	0-5-0 (0%)	3-6-1 (33.3%)