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Hornets @ Grizzlies [ +2 / 205.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 13, 2024
Grizzlies | 27-55 (32.9%)
Hornets | 21-61 (25.6%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Grizzlies (+2) a 64.3-55.8% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 205.5 around 4-2.4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Grizzlies have a 66.4% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 3.7% chance of going over the total.

Hornets Situational Notes

Grizzlies Situational Notes

Hornets Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/15	CHA	CHA +10 PHO -10	218	PHO	-	-	-
3/13	MEM	CHA -2 MEM +2	205.5	CHA	-	-	-
3/11	DET [ 114 ]	CHA +4 DET -4	217	CHA [ 97 ]	-17	-13	-6
3/9	CHA [ 110 ]	CHA +6.5 BKN -6.5	207	BKN [ 99 ]	+11	+17.5	+2
3/8	WAS [ 112 ]	CHA +3 WAS -3	225	CHA [ 100 ]	-12	-9	-13
3/5	CHA [ 89 ]	CHA +7.5 ORL -7.5	207.5	ORL [ 101 ]	-12	-4.5	-17.5
3/3	TOR [ 111 ]	CHA +7 TOR -7	223	CHA [ 106 ]	-5	+2	-6
3/1	PHI [ 121 ]	CHA +11.5 PHI -11.5	213.5	CHA [ 114 ]	-7	+4.5	+21.5
2/29	CHA [ 99 ]	CHA +11.5 MIL -11.5	219	MIL [ 111 ]	-12	-0.5	-9
2/27	MIL [ 123 ]	CHA +14.5 MIL -14.5	220.5	CHA [ 85 ]	-38	-23.5	-12.5

Grizzlies Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/16	MEM	MEM +10.5 OKC -10.5	219.5	OKC	-	-	-
3/13	MEM	MEM +2 CHA -2	205.5	CHA	-	-	-
3/12	MEM [ 109 ]	MEM +2.5 WAS -2.5	220	WAS [ 97 ]	+12	+14.5	-14
3/10	OKC [ 124 ]	MEM +15 OKC -15	219	MEM [ 93 ]	-31	-16	-2
3/8	MEM [ 92 ]	MEM +3 ATL -3	215	ATL [ 99 ]	-7	-4	-24
3/6	PHI [ 109 ]	MEM +6.5 PHI -6.5	209.5	MEM [ 115 ]	+6	+12.5	+14.5
3/4	BKN [ 102 ]	MEM +10 BKN -10	206.5	MEM [ 106 ]	+4	+14	+1.5
3/2	MEM [ 100 ]	MEM -2 POR +2	210	POR [ 107 ]	-7	-9	-3
3/1	MEM [ 92 ]	MEM -1.5 POR +1.5	208	POR [ 122 ]	-30	-31.5	+6
2/28	MIN [ 110 ]	MEM +12 MIN -12	211.5	MEM [ 101 ]	-9	+3	-0.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/13	MEM	MEM +2 CHA -2	205.5	CHA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/10	CHA [ 115 ]	MEM -5.5 CHA +5.5	215	MEM [ 106 ]	-9	-14.5	+6	116.1	109.6	118.9	-9.3	221
1/4	CHA [ 107 ]	MEM -6.5 CHA +6.5	236.5	MEM [ 131 ]	+24	+17.5	+1.5	129.5	121.4	99.2	22.2	238
11/4	MEM [ 130 ]	MEM -11 CHA +11	226.5	CHA [ 99 ]	+31	+20	+2.5	125	124.8	95	29.8	229

Filters

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Efficiency

Hornets (last 65 games)		Grizzlies (last 66 games)
0.26 (27)	Win Percentage	0.33 (25)
40.63 (28)	ATS Win%	46.15 (24)
46.15 (23)	OU%	40.91 (28)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
109.3 (29)	Offensive Rating	107.22 (30)
119.81 (26)	Defensive Rating	114.32 (11)
97.27 (25)	Pace	98.19 (17)
1.8 (24)	A/TO Ratio	1.64 (29)

Four Factors

Hornets (last 65 games)		Grizzlies (last 66 games)
52.93 (25)	EFG%	50.91 (29)
57.21 (30)	EFG% Allowed	55.13 (18)
21.2 (30)	FT Rate	23.82 (19)
23.63 (9)	FT Rate Allowed	25.04 (16)
21.14 (27)	OReb%	23.82 (20)
25.46 (23)	OReb% Allowed	25.17 (19)
14.12 (21)	TO Rate	15.27 (28)
13.97 (11)	TO Rate Forced	15.31 (2)

Scoring

Hornets (last 65 games)		Grizzlies (last 66 games)
106.59 (29)	PPG	105.82 (30)
116.83 (19)	PPG Allowed	112.82 (11)
15.24 (26)	Pts off TO	17.37 (6)
17.09 (23)	Pts off TO Allowed	18.46 (27)
12.15 (26)	2nd Chance Pts	13.44 (21)
14.15 (20)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.98 (17)
12.48 (26)	Fast Break Pts	11.61 (30)
13.76 (10)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	15.07 (21)

Inside the Arc

Hornets (last 65 games)		Grizzlies (last 66 games)
42.49 (23)	Paint Attempts	44.09 (17)
43.33 (12)	Paint Attempts Allowed	42.71 (8)
56.34 (20)	Paint FG%	52.2 (29)
60.62 (29)	Paint FG% Allowed	56.37 (9)
10.5 (12)	Mid-Range Attempts	6.29 (30)
8.21 (1)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	8.79 (4)
0.38 (23)	Mid-Range FG%	0.36 (29)
0.42 (16)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.43 (22)

Three Point Shooting

Hornets (last 65 games)		Grizzlies (last 66 games)
7.83 (26)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.72 (7)
9.45 (21)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.93 (7)
36.14 (28)	Corner 3 FG%	34.88 (30)
40 (18)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	41.23 (25)
25.91 (15)	ATB3 Attempts	27.8 (7)
26.59 (19)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.34 (24)
35.62 (17)	ATB3 FG%	34.78 (25)
37.06 (24)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	37.02 (23)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	15-48-2	1-3-0	7-21-0	0-0-0	7-24-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	16-49	2-2	7-21	0-0	7-26	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Grizzlies 1h	25-39-1	4-6-0	9-12-1	1-5-0	11-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	23-43	3-7	5-18	3-3	12-15	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	29-34-2	1-3-0	14-13-1	0-0-0	14-18-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	26-39-0	0-4-0	14-14-0	0-0-0	12-21-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	29-36-0	4-6-0	12-10-0	1-5-0	12-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	30-35-1	2-8-0	9-13-1	3-3-0	16-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	20-44-1	1-3-0	9-18-1	0-0-0	10-23-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	30-35-0	2-2-0	14-14-0	0-0-0	14-19-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	19-44-2	3-7-0	5-16-1	2-4-0	9-17-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	29-37-0	3-7-0	7-16-0	3-3-0	16-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	20-43-2	1-3-0	10-18-0	0-0-0	9-22-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	29-35-1	1-3-0	13-14-1	0-0-0	15-18-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	22-42-1	3-7-0	10-11-1	1-5-0	8-19-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	27-39-0	1-9-0	8-15-0	4-2-0	14-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	25-40-0	1-3-0	11-17-0	0-0-0	13-20-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	33-32-0	2-2-0	14-14-0	0-0-0	17-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	29-36-0	5-5-0	9-13-0	5-1-0	10-17-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	29-36-1	6-4-0	8-15-0	2-3-1	13-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Grizzlies	6-5-0 (54.5%)	10-7-1 (58.8%)	8-8-0 (50%)	3-11-0 (21.4%)	3-3-0 (50%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-1-0 (0%)
Hornets	11-13-1 (45.8%)	6-9-0 (40%)	9-11-0 (45%)	0-2-0 (0%)	0-3-0 (0%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)