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3/11 | 3/13MIN@LAC WAS@MEM BOS@UTA MIL@SAC PHI@NYK HOU@SAS IND@OKC

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Timberwolves @ Clippers [ -6.5 / 215 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 12, 2024
Clippers | 53-35 (60.2%)
Timberwolves | 65-33 (66.3%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Clippers (-6.5) a 34.5-47.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 215 around 4.2-3.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Clippers have a 41.9% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 4.6% chance of going over the total.

Timberwolves Situational Notes

Clippers Situational Notes

Timberwolves Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/16	UTA	MIN -8 UTA +8	223.5	MIN	-	-	-
3/12	LAC	MIN +6.5 LAC -6.5	215	MIN	-	-	-
3/10	LAL [ 120 ]	MIN +1 LAL -1	221.5	MIN [ 109 ]	-11	-10	+7.5
3/8	CLE [ 113 ]	MIN +1 CLE -1	207	MIN [ 104 ]	-9	-8	+10
3/7	IND [ 111 ]	MIN +1 IND -1	228	MIN [ 113 ]	+2	+3	-4
3/4	MIN [ 119 ]	MIN -15.5 POR +15.5	210.5	POR [ 114 ]	+5	-10.5	+22.5
3/3	MIN [ 88 ]	MIN -2 LAC +2	220	LAC [ 89 ]	-1	-3	-43
3/1	MIN [ 120 ]	MIN -6.5 SAC +6.5	224	SAC [ 124 ]	-4	-10.5	+20
2/28	MIN [ 110 ]	MIN -12.5 MEM +12.5	208	MEM [ 101 ]	+9	-3.5	+3
2/27	MIN [ 114 ]	MIN -13 SAS +13	225.5	SAS [ 105 ]	+9	-4	-6.5

Clippers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/14	CHI	LAC -6.5 CHI +6.5	214	LAC	-	-	-
3/12	LAC	LAC -6.5 MIN +6.5	215	MIN	-	-	-
3/10	LAC [ 117 ]	LAC +5.5 MIL -5.5	222.5	MIL [ 124 ]	-7	-1.5	+18.5
3/9	LAC [ 112 ]	LAC -7 CHI +7	220.5	CHI [ 102 ]	+10	+3	-6.5
3/6	HOU [ 116 ]	LAC -6.5 HOU +6.5	224.5	LAC [ 122 ]	+6	-0.5	+13.5
3/4	MIL [ 113 ]	LAC -3 MIL +3	222	LAC [ 106 ]	-7	-10	-3
3/3	MIN [ 88 ]	LAC +2 MIN -2	220	LAC [ 89 ]	+1	+3	-43
3/1	LAC [ 140 ]	LAC -15.5 WAS +15.5	238.5	WAS [ 115 ]	+25	+9.5	+16.5
2/28	LAC [ 112 ]	LAC -3.5 LAL +3.5	234.5	LAL [ 116 ]	-4	-7.5	-6.5
2/25	LAC [ 107 ]	LAC -5 SAC +5	239.5	SAC [ 123 ]	-16	-21	-9.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/12	LAC	LAC -6.5 MIN +6.5	215	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/3	MIN [ 88 ]	LAC +2 MIN -2	220	LAC [ 89 ]	+1	+3	-43	108.6	98.4	97.3	1.1	177
2/12	LAC [ 100 ]	LAC -4.5 MIN +4.5	223.5	MIN [ 121 ]	-21	-25.5	-2.5	113.1	106.1	128.4	-22.3	221
1/14	MIN [ 109 ]	LAC +1 MIN -1	223.5	LAC [ 105 ]	-4	-3	-9.5	110.1	114.4	118.8	-4.4	214
2/28	LAC [ 101 ]	LAC -6.5 MIN +6.5	231.5	MIN [ 108 ]	-7	-13.5	-22.5	128.1	94.6	101.1	-6.6	209
1/6	MIN [ 128 ]	LAC +5.5 MIN -5.5	224	LAC [ 115 ]	-13	-7.5	+19	120.8	114.2	127.1	-12.9	243
12/14	LAC [ 99 ]	LAC -7 MIN +7	221	MIN [ 88 ]	+11	+4	-34	115.1	103.3	91.8	11.5	187

Filters

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Current matchup:

Efficiency

Timberwolves (last 65 games)		Clippers (last 63 games)
0.68 (4)	Win Percentage	0.62 (7)
47.62 (20)	ATS Win%	50 (17)
48.44 (17)	OU%	44.26 (25)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
115.59 (17)	Offensive Rating	118.77 (5)
108.99 (1)	Defensive Rating	115.4 (14)
97.12 (26)	Pace	97.22 (24)
1.88 (22)	A/TO Ratio	1.95 (20)

Four Factors

Timberwolves (last 65 games)		Clippers (last 63 games)
55.94 (11)	EFG%	56.15 (9)
51.54 (1)	EFG% Allowed	54.06 (11)
26.97 (6)	FT Rate	25.56 (12)
25.22 (19)	FT Rate Allowed	23.57 (8)
23.16 (21)	OReb%	24.37 (17)
23.1 (7)	OReb% Allowed	25.18 (20)
14.5 (23)	TO Rate	13.5 (18)
14.55 (6)	TO Rate Forced	13.39 (20)

Scoring

Timberwolves (last 65 games)		Clippers (last 63 games)
112.98 (20)	PPG	115.62 (14)
106.52 (1)	PPG Allowed	112.34 (9)
16.99 (10)	Pts off TO	16.16 (17)
16.3 (14)	Pts off TO Allowed	15.66 (10)
13.51 (18)	2nd Chance Pts	12.68 (23)
12.71 (4)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	14.05 (19)
12.39 (27)	Fast Break Pts	14.78 (12)
13.24 (6)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	14.89 (21)

Inside the Arc

Timberwolves (last 65 games)		Clippers (last 63 games)
44.11 (16)	Paint Attempts	42.62 (23)
43.2 (10)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.2 (18)
57.56 (16)	Paint FG%	59.14 (9)
53.39 (1)	Paint FG% Allowed	56.21 (9)
8.24 (27)	Mid-Range Attempts	10.9 (8)
11.29 (28)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9.28 (9)
0.39 (20)	Mid-Range FG%	0.41 (16)
0.4 (6)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (19)

Three Point Shooting

Timberwolves (last 65 games)		Clippers (last 63 games)
9.59 (9)	Corner 3 Attempts	8.78 (18)
8.11 (9)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	9.43 (22)
40.84 (8)	Corner 3 FG%	40.97 (7)
38.65 (13)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	37.26 (5)
22.9 (27)	ATB3 Attempts	24.27 (21)
24.01 (5)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	25.87 (15)
38.07 (2)	ATB3 FG%	37.24 (7)
34.59 (4)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	36.12 (15)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	37-27-0	19-10-0	1-1-0	12-7-0	5-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	44-21	21-8	2-0	15-5	6-8	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Clippers 1h	38-23-2	18-11-0	1-1-0	14-4-2	4-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	41-22	22-7	0-2	15-5	3-8	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	28-35-1	10-19-0	1-1-0	10-8-1	7-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	30-34-1	12-17-0	2-0-0	9-10-1	7-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers 1h	32-30-1	14-15-0	1-1-0	12-7-1	4-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	31-31-1	15-13-1	0-2-0	11-9-0	4-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	23-40-1	9-20-0	0-2-0	10-8-1	4-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	31-33-1	11-17-1	1-1-0	10-10-0	9-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers 1h	24-39-0	10-19-0	2-0-0	10-10-0	2-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	26-33-4	10-17-2	2-0-0	9-10-1	5-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	26-37-1	8-20-1	1-1-0	11-8-0	6-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	32-33-0	10-19-0	2-0-0	13-7-0	7-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers 1h	24-38-1	11-18-0	1-1-0	10-9-1	2-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	33-30-0	14-15-0	1-1-0	13-7-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	30-34-0	13-16-0	0-2-0	11-8-0	6-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	28-37-0	11-18-0	0-2-0	10-10-0	7-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers 1h	27-36-0	13-16-0	2-0-0	7-13-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	33-30-0	15-14-0	2-0-0	10-10-0	6-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Clippers	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	2-4-0 (33.3%)	6-5-0 (54.5%)	11-11-0 (50%)	9-5-0 (64.3%)	2-6-1 (25%)
Timberwolves	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	5-4-0 (55.6%)	6-7-0 (46.2%)	6-9-1 (40%)	8-4-0 (66.7%)	4-9-1 (30.8%)