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Mavericks @ Bulls [ +4 / 233 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 11, 2024
Bulls | 40-44 (47.6%)
Mavericks | 63-41 (60.6%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bulls (+4) a 59.4-62.4% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 233 around 3.2-3.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bulls have a 69.2% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 2.8% chance of going over the total.

Mavericks Situational Notes

Bulls Situational Notes

Mavericks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/13	DAL	DAL -7.5 GSW +7.5	235	GSW	-	-	-
3/11	CHI	DAL -4 CHI +4	233	DAL	-	-	-
3/9	DET [ 124 ]	DAL -9 DET +9	238	DAL [ 142 ]	+18	+9	+28
3/7	DAL [ 114 ]	DAL -4.5 MIA +4.5	229.5	MIA [ 108 ]	+6	+1.5	-7.5
3/5	DAL [ 120 ]	DAL -5.5 IND +5.5	247.5	IND [ 137 ]	-17	-22.5	+9.5
3/3	DAL [ 116 ]	DAL -7.5 PHI +7.5	237	PHI [ 120 ]	-4	-11.5	-1
3/1	BOS [ 138 ]	DAL +10 BOS -10	235.5	DAL [ 110 ]	-28	-18	+12.5
2/28	TOR [ 125 ]	DAL -3 TOR +3	237.5	DAL [ 136 ]	+11	+8	+23.5
2/27	CLE [ 121 ]	DAL +4.5 CLE -4.5	232.5	DAL [ 119 ]	-2	+2.5	+7.5
2/25	IND [ 133 ]	DAL -1 IND +1	252	DAL [ 111 ]	-22	-23	-8

Bulls Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/13	IND	CHI +3.5 IND -3.5	230.5	CHI	-	-	-
3/11	CHI	CHI +4 DAL -4	233	DAL	-	-	-
3/9	LAC [ 112 ]	CHI +7 LAC -7	220.5	CHI [ 102 ]	-10	-3	-6.5
3/7	GSW [ 122 ]	CHI +8 GSW -8	223	CHI [ 125 ]	+3	+11	+24
3/6	UTA [ 117 ]	CHI -4 UTA +4	223	CHI [ 119 ]	+2	-2	+13
3/4	SAC [ 109 ]	CHI +6.5 SAC -6.5	228	CHI [ 113 ]	+4	+10.5	-6
3/1	CHI [ 97 ]	CHI +4 MIL -4	221.5	MIL [ 113 ]	-16	-12	-11.5
2/28	CHI [ 132 ]	CHI +5 CLE -5	216.5	CLE [ 123 ]	+9	+14	+38.5
2/27	CHI [ 95 ]	CHI -11 DET +11	225	DET [ 105 ]	-10	-21	-25
2/25	NOP [ 106 ]	CHI +4 NOP -4	222.5	CHI [ 114 ]	+8	+12	-2.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/11	CHI	CHI +4 DAL -4	233	DAL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11/1	DAL [ 114 ]	CHI +3.5 DAL -3.5	220.5	CHI [ 105 ]	-9	-5.5	-1.5	110.4	114.1	123.9	-9.8	219
4/7	DAL [ 112 ]	CHI +2 DAL -2	216	CHI [ 115 ]	+3	+5	+11	119.7	115.3	112.3	3	227
12/10	CHI [ 144 ]	CHI -2 DAL +2	224	DAL [ 115 ]	+29	+27	+35	120.1	143.8	114.9	29	259

Filters

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Efficiency

Mavericks (last 64 games)		Bulls (last 64 games)
0.61 (8)	Win Percentage	0.48 (19)
52.38 (10)	ATS Win%	53.97 (7)
54.1 (6)	OU%	54.69 (4)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
117.65 (11)	Offensive Rating	114.85 (19)
115.55 (15)	Defensive Rating	116.32 (19)
100.05 (8)	Pace	96.28 (29)
2.05 (12)	A/TO Ratio	2.04 (15)

Four Factors

Mavericks (last 64 games)		Bulls (last 64 games)
56.22 (8)	EFG%	53.39 (24)
54.82 (18)	EFG% Allowed	55.64 (20)
25.05 (14)	FT Rate	23.59 (21)
23.95 (9)	FT Rate Allowed	25.09 (17)
22.13 (24)	OReb%	25.13 (11)
24.74 (19)	OReb% Allowed	23.65 (12)
12.5 (4)	TO Rate	12.53 (5)
13.71 (15)	TO Rate Forced	14.31 (6)

Scoring

Mavericks (last 64 games)		Bulls (last 64 games)
117.85 (8)	PPG	112.27 (24)
115.76 (17)	PPG Allowed	113.71 (14)
16.43 (14)	Pts off TO	17.17 (9)
15.07 (7)	Pts off TO Allowed	15.23 (9)
13.52 (19)	2nd Chance Pts	13.63 (17)
14.34 (21)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.82 (13)
15.77 (5)	Fast Break Pts	12.45 (27)
15.82 (26)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.27 (5)

Inside the Arc

Mavericks (last 64 games)		Bulls (last 64 games)
38.9 (30)	Paint Attempts	42.85 (24)
44.05 (16)	Paint Attempts Allowed	38.5 (1)
60.94 (2)	Paint FG%	56.46 (20)
57.95 (20)	Paint FG% Allowed	59.01 (24)
11.22 (6)	Mid-Range Attempts	14.56 (1)
10.73 (24)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9 (6)
0.43 (11)	Mid-Range FG%	0.44 (8)
0.4 (7)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (19)

Three Point Shooting

Mavericks (last 64 games)		Bulls (last 64 games)
11.27 (1)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.21 (11)
10.29 (25)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	11.12 (29)
36.26 (28)	Corner 3 FG%	38.54 (20)
38.63 (12)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	41.56 (26)
28.07 (5)	ATB3 Attempts	22.74 (26)
25.15 (11)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	28.18 (26)
37.45 (7)	ATB3 FG%	34.91 (25)
36.23 (16)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.31 (7)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mavericks 1h	28-34-2	9-13-0	7-4-1	9-7-0	3-10-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Mavericks	36-28	14-8	5-7	13-3	4-10	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bulls 1h	29-34-1	12-6-0	2-10-1	5-4-0	10-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	31-33	9-9	7-6	8-1	7-17	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mavericks 1h	30-34-0	8-14-0	8-4-0	8-8-0	6-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Mavericks	33-30-1	10-12-0	5-7-0	12-3-1	6-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	32-30-2	11-7-0	4-8-1	5-4-0	12-11-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	33-30-1	8-10-0	7-5-1	6-3-0	12-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mavericks 1h	31-32-1	10-12-0	7-5-0	8-7-1	6-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Mavericks	33-29-2	10-12-0	6-5-1	10-6-0	7-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	26-36-2	7-10-1	6-7-0	5-4-0	8-15-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	35-29-0	7-11-0	9-4-0	7-2-0	12-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mavericks 1h	30-32-2	8-14-0	6-5-1	9-6-1	7-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Mavericks	34-30-0	11-11-0	5-7-0	10-6-0	8-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	23-39-2	5-13-0	4-9-0	4-5-0	10-12-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	33-31-0	5-13-0	8-5-0	7-2-0	13-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mavericks 1h	30-34-0	11-11-0	5-7-0	9-7-0	5-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Mavericks	38-26-0	12-10-0	7-5-0	10-6-0	9-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	26-37-1	5-13-0	6-7-0	5-4-0	10-13-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	38-25-1	9-9-0	9-4-0	7-2-0	13-10-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bulls	2-2-0 (50%)	4-5-0 (44.4%)	12-8-0 (60%)	3-4-1 (42.9%)	11-8-0 (57.9%)	2-1-0 (66.7%)	0-1-0 (0%)
Mavericks	1-2-0 (33.3%)	0-2-0 (0%)	6-7-0 (46.2%)	8-6-0 (57.1%)	11-9-1 (55%)	3-2-0 (60%)	4-2-0 (66.7%)