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3/6 | 3/8SAS@SAC MIA@DAL BOS@DEN MIN@IND BKN@DET TOR@PHO CHI@GSW

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Spurs @ Kings [ -11.5 / 234.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 7, 2024
Kings | 47-37 (56%)
Spurs | 22-60 (26.8%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Kings (-11.5) a 40-30.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 234.5 around 3-2.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Kings have a 44.9% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 3% chance of going over the total.

Spurs Situational Notes

Kings Situational Notes

Spurs Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/9	GSW	SAS +11 GSW -11	226.5	SAS	-	-	-
3/7	SAC	SAS +11.5 SAC -11.5	234.5	SAS	-	-	-
3/5	HOU [ 114 ]	SAS +8 HOU -8	227.5	SAS [ 101 ]	-13	-5	-12.5
3/3	SAS [ 117 ]	SAS +7 IND -7	244.5	IND [ 105 ]	+12	+19	-22.5
2/29	SAS [ 132 ]	SAS +11 OKC -11	238.5	OKC [ 118 ]	+14	+25	+11.5
2/27	MIN [ 114 ]	SAS +13 MIN -13	225.5	SAS [ 105 ]	-9	+4	-6.5
2/25	UTA [ 128 ]	SAS +6.5 UTA -6.5	240	SAS [ 109 ]	-19	-12.5	-3
2/23	LAL [ 123 ]	SAS +10 LAL -10	241	SAS [ 118 ]	-5	+5	0
2/22	SAC [ 127 ]	SAS +9 SAC -9	240.5	SAS [ 122 ]	-5	+4	+8.5
2/14	DAL [ 116 ]	SAS +11 DAL -11	240.5	SAS [ 93 ]	-23	-12	-31.5

Kings Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/10	SAC	SAC -6.5 HOU +6.5	233.5	HOU	-	-	-
3/7	SAC	SAC -11.5 SAS +11.5	234.5	SAS	-	-	-
3/6	LAL [ 120 ]	SAC +3.5 LAL -3.5	238	SAC [ 130 ]	+10	+13.5	+12
3/4	SAC [ 109 ]	SAC -6.5 CHI +6.5	228	CHI [ 113 ]	-4	-10.5	-6
3/1	MIN [ 120 ]	SAC +6.5 MIN -6.5	223.5	SAC [ 124 ]	+4	+10.5	+20.5
2/28	DEN [ 117 ]	SAC +7.5 DEN -7.5	231	SAC [ 96 ]	-21	-13.5	-18
2/26	SAC [ 110 ]	SAC -7 MIA +7	224	MIA [ 121 ]	-11	-18	+7
2/25	LAC [ 107 ]	SAC +5 LAC -5	239.5	SAC [ 123 ]	+16	+21	-9.5
2/22	SAC [ 127 ]	SAC -9 SAS +9	240.5	SAS [ 122 ]	+5	-4	+8.5
2/14	DEN [ 98 ]	SAC +6 DEN -6	229.5	SAC [ 102 ]	+4	+10	-29.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/7	SAC	SAC -11.5 SAS +11.5	234.5	SAS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/22	SAC [ 127 ]	SAC -9 SAS +9	240.5	SAS [ 122 ]	+5	-4	+8.5	120.4	126.6	121.6	5	249
11/17	SAS [ 120 ]	SAC -8.5 SAS +8.5	239	SAC [ 129 ]	+9	+0.5	+10	127.5	121.4	113	8.5	249
4/2	SAC [ 134 ]	SAC -16 SAS +16	243.5	SAS [ 142 ]	-8	-24	+32.5	123.9	117.5	124.6	-7	250
2/1	SAS [ 109 ]	SAC -7.5 SAS +7.5	244	SAC [ 119 ]	+10	+2.5	-16	119.9	119.1	109.1	10	228
1/15	SAS [ 119 ]	SAC -6.5 SAS +6.5	246	SAC [ 132 ]	+13	+6.5	+5	117	135.3	122	13.3	251
11/17	SAC [ 130 ]	SAC -7 SAS +7	237.5	SAS [ 112 ]	+18	+11	+4.5	118.6	131.5	113.3	18.2	242

Filters

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Efficiency

Spurs (last 62 games)		Kings (last 61 games)
0.27 (27)	Win Percentage	0.56 (14)
48.39 (19)	ATS Win%	52.54 (9)
50 (13)	OU%	52.54 (9)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
109.96 (27)	Offensive Rating	117.01 (14)
116.43 (21)	Defensive Rating	114.82 (12)
101.17 (3)	Pace	98.73 (15)
1.97 (19)	A/TO Ratio	2.16 (4)

Four Factors

Spurs (last 62 games)		Kings (last 61 games)
53.2 (25)	EFG%	55.56 (13)
55.57 (21)	EFG% Allowed	55.3 (20)
22.01 (29)	FT Rate	22.94 (23)
22.02 (4)	FT Rate Allowed	26.73 (24)
22.87 (22)	OReb%	24.56 (16)
23.68 (12)	OReb% Allowed	21.78 (1)
14.86 (23)	TO Rate	13.2 (12)
13.15 (22)	TO Rate Forced	14.02 (10)

Scoring

Spurs (last 62 games)		Kings (last 61 games)
112.1 (22)	PPG	116.56 (14)
118.7 (25)	PPG Allowed	114.38 (17)
15.4 (24)	Pts off TO	16.48 (12)
18.72 (27)	Pts off TO Allowed	16.3 (15)
12.59 (26)	2nd Chance Pts	14.7 (10)
14.32 (21)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	10.94 (1)
15.62 (6)	Fast Break Pts	14.37 (16)
14.48 (18)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	11.63 (2)

Inside the Arc

Spurs (last 62 games)		Kings (last 61 games)
44.67 (14)	Paint Attempts	42.83 (23)
47.13 (27)	Paint Attempts Allowed	43.1 (10)
57.58 (17)	Paint FG%	59.4 (7)
58.09 (20)	Paint FG% Allowed	56.68 (11)
9.65 (18)	Mid-Range Attempts	8.83 (25)
11.15 (27)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9.84 (14)
0.37 (27)	Mid-Range FG%	0.4 (19)
0.44 (25)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (18)

Three Point Shooting

Spurs (last 62 games)		Kings (last 61 games)
8.84 (18)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.96 (8)
8.24 (10)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	9.22 (20)
37.79 (21)	Corner 3 FG%	38.56 (20)
37.57 (9)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	40.48 (20)
27.33 (9)	ATB3 Attempts	29.2 (3)
25.59 (15)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	24.46 (8)
33.96 (30)	ATB3 FG%	36.05 (15)
37.46 (26)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	38.24 (30)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Spurs 1h	20-40-2	3-0-1	10-13-1	1-0-0	6-27-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Spurs	13-49	3-1	4-20	1-0	5-28	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Kings 1h	32-28-1	14-10-0	2-1-0	7-6-1	9-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings	35-26	14-10	2-1	10-4	9-11	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Spurs 1h	29-32-1	3-1-0	13-11-0	1-0-0	12-20-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Spurs	30-32-0	3-1-0	11-13-0	1-0-0	15-18-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings 1h	31-29-1	13-11-0	2-1-0	6-8-0	10-9-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings	31-27-3	8-15-1	2-1-0	9-4-1	12-7-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Spurs 1h	23-37-2	1-3-0	11-12-1	0-1-0	11-21-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Spurs	30-31-1	1-3-0	15-9-0	0-0-1	14-19-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings 1h	32-29-0	11-13-0	2-1-0	8-6-0	11-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings	31-28-2	16-8-0	2-1-0	6-7-1	7-12-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Spurs 1h	21-39-2	2-2-0	8-16-0	1-0-0	10-21-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Spurs	32-30-0	2-2-0	14-10-0	1-0-0	15-18-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings 1h	26-35-0	9-15-0	1-2-0	6-8-0	10-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings	29-32-0	11-13-0	2-1-0	7-7-0	9-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Spurs 1h	23-36-3	0-4-0	9-14-1	0-1-0	14-17-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Spurs	30-32-0	1-3-0	15-9-0	0-1-0	14-19-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings 1h	31-27-3	10-14-0	2-1-0	9-5-0	10-7-3	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings	31-30-0	19-5-0	2-1-0	4-10-0	6-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Kings	0-0-0 (-)	0-1-0 (0%)	8-3-1 (72.7%)	10-8-0 (55.6%)	7-8-1 (46.7%)	4-5-0 (44.4%)	2-3-0 (40%)
Spurs	12-8-0 (60%)	6-12-0 (33.3%)	7-10-0 (41.2%)	1-1-0 (50%)	4-1-0 (80%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)