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3/7 | 3/9MIN@CLE ATL@MEM ORL@NYK MIL@LAL NOP@PHI MIA@OKC HOU@POR CHA@WAS

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Timberwolves @ Cavaliers [ -1 / 207 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 8, 2024
Cavaliers | 53-41 (56.4%)
Timberwolves | 65-33 (66.3%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Cavaliers (-1) a 47.8-38.1% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 207 around 4.4-3.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Cavaliers have a 51.3% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 5.3% chance of going over the total.

Timberwolves Situational Notes

Cavaliers Situational Notes

Timberwolves Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/10	LAL	MIN +1 LAL -1	221.5	MIN	-	-	-
3/8	CLE	MIN +1 CLE -1	207	MIN	-	-	-
3/7	IND [ 111 ]	MIN +1 IND -1	228	MIN [ 113 ]	+2	+3	-4
3/4	MIN [ 119 ]	MIN -15.5 POR +15.5	210.5	POR [ 114 ]	+5	-10.5	+22.5
3/3	MIN [ 88 ]	MIN -2 LAC +2	220	LAC [ 89 ]	-1	-3	-43
3/1	MIN [ 120 ]	MIN -6.5 SAC +6.5	224	SAC [ 124 ]	-4	-10.5	+20
2/28	MIN [ 110 ]	MIN -12.5 MEM +12.5	208	MEM [ 101 ]	+9	-3.5	+3
2/27	MIN [ 114 ]	MIN -13 SAS +13	225.5	SAS [ 105 ]	+9	-4	-6.5
2/24	MIN [ 101 ]	MIN -8.5 BKN +8.5	219	BKN [ 86 ]	+15	+6.5	-32
2/23	MIN [ 107 ]	MIN -4 MIL +4	225.5	MIL [ 112 ]	-5	-9	-6.5

Cavaliers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/10	CLE	CLE -7 BKN +7	207.5	BKN	-	-	-
3/8	CLE	CLE -1 MIN +1	207	MIN	-	-	-
3/6	ATL [ 112 ]	CLE +2.5 ATL -2.5	216	CLE [ 101 ]	-11	-8.5	-3
3/5	CLE [ 105 ]	CLE +8.5 BOS -8.5	217	BOS [ 104 ]	+1	+9.5	-8
3/3	CLE [ 98 ]	CLE -4 NYK +4	208.5	NYK [ 107 ]	-9	-13	-3.5
3/1	DET [ 100 ]	CLE -9 DET +9	222	CLE [ 110 ]	+10	+1	-12
2/28	CHI [ 132 ]	CLE -5 CHI +5	216.5	CLE [ 123 ]	-9	-14	+38.5
2/27	CLE [ 121 ]	CLE -4.5 DAL +4.5	232.5	DAL [ 119 ]	+2	-2.5	+7.5
2/25	WAS [ 105 ]	CLE -12.5 WAS +12.5	234.5	CLE [ 114 ]	+9	-3.5	-15.5
2/23	PHI [ 104 ]	CLE -3.5 PHI +3.5	228	CLE [ 97 ]	-7	-10.5	-27

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/22	MIN	CLE +7.5 MIN -7.5	206.5	CLE	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/8	CLE	CLE -1 MIN +1	207	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1/14	MIN [ 110 ]	CLE -4.5 MIN +4.5	224	CLE [ 102 ]	-8	-12.5	-12	114.3	107.1	115.5	-8.4	212
11/13	CLE [ 124 ]	CLE -1 MIN +1	221	MIN [ 129 ]	-5	-6	+32	117	127.2	132.3	-5.1	253

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Efficiency

Timberwolves (last 63 games)		Cavaliers (last 62 games)
0.68 (3)	Win Percentage	0.59 (10)
49.18 (17)	ATS Win%	50 (15)
46.77 (20)	OU%	45.16 (25)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
115.59 (16)	Offensive Rating	115.21 (18)
108.99 (1)	Defensive Rating	112.74 (4)
97.12 (26)	Pace	97.15 (25)
1.88 (22)	A/TO Ratio	2.07 (11)

Four Factors

Timberwolves (last 63 games)		Cavaliers (last 62 games)
55.94 (10)	EFG%	55.67 (12)
51.54 (1)	EFG% Allowed	53.48 (6)
26.97 (6)	FT Rate	23.38 (22)
25.22 (16)	FT Rate Allowed	24.02 (10)
23.16 (21)	OReb%	23.19 (20)
23.1 (7)	OReb% Allowed	23.09 (6)
14.5 (23)	TO Rate	13.87 (20)
14.55 (6)	TO Rate Forced	13.91 (11)

Scoring

Timberwolves (last 63 games)		Cavaliers (last 62 games)
112.98 (19)	PPG	112.63 (21)
106.52 (1)	PPG Allowed	110.22 (6)
16.99 (10)	Pts off TO	16.6 (12)
16.3 (15)	Pts off TO Allowed	17.37 (23)
13.51 (19)	2nd Chance Pts	13.59 (18)
12.71 (4)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	12.87 (6)
12.39 (27)	Fast Break Pts	14.78 (12)
13.24 (5)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	14.34 (15)

Inside the Arc

Timberwolves (last 63 games)		Cavaliers (last 62 games)
44.11 (17)	Paint Attempts	43.45 (20)
43.2 (10)	Paint Attempts Allowed	42.2 (6)
57.56 (16)	Paint FG%	57.65 (13)
53.39 (1)	Paint FG% Allowed	55.14 (4)
8.24 (27)	Mid-Range Attempts	6.94 (28)
11.29 (28)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	11.5 (29)
0.39 (20)	Mid-Range FG%	0.46 (4)
0.4 (5)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.41 (13)

Three Point Shooting

Timberwolves (last 63 games)		Cavaliers (last 62 games)
9.59 (9)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.18 (11)
8.11 (9)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	9.54 (23)
40.84 (8)	Corner 3 FG%	37.05 (26)
38.65 (13)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	39.39 (15)
22.9 (27)	ATB3 Attempts	27.46 (8)
24.01 (3)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	24.06 (4)
38.07 (2)	ATB3 FG%	36.77 (10)
34.59 (5)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	36.54 (17)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	37-25-0	19-10-0	1-1-0	12-7-0	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	44-19	21-8	2-0	15-5	6-6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Cavaliers 1h	37-23-2	18-6-0	3-5-0	11-5-2	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	40-22	18-6	3-5	13-5	6-6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	27-34-1	10-19-0	1-1-0	10-8-1	6-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	30-32-1	12-17-0	2-0-0	9-10-1	7-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	30-28-4	13-9-2	3-5-0	8-9-1	6-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	30-30-2	12-11-1	3-5-0	8-9-1	7-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	22-39-1	9-20-0	0-2-0	10-8-1	3-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	29-33-1	11-17-1	1-1-0	10-10-0	7-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	26-33-3	9-13-2	4-4-0	5-12-1	8-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	28-34-0	12-12-0	5-3-0	6-12-0	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	25-36-1	8-20-1	1-1-0	11-8-0	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	31-32-0	10-19-0	2-0-0	13-7-0	6-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	27-34-1	14-9-1	2-6-0	6-12-0	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	28-33-1	12-12-0	4-4-0	6-11-1	6-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	28-34-0	13-16-0	0-2-0	11-8-0	4-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	26-37-0	11-18-0	0-2-0	10-10-0	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	22-39-1	7-16-1	5-3-0	6-12-0	4-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	25-37-0	11-13-0	4-4-0	5-13-0	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Cavaliers	1-0-0 (100%)	2-0-1 (100%)	7-7-0 (50%)	5-5-0 (50%)	9-8-1 (52.9%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	3-6-0 (33.3%)
Timberwolves	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	5-4-0 (55.6%)	6-5-0 (54.5%)	6-9-1 (40%)	8-4-0 (66.7%)	4-9-1 (30.8%)