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3/5 | 3/7CLE@ATL CHI@UTA SAC@LAL LAC@HOU MEM@PHI OKC@POR MIL@GSW ORL@WAS

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Cavaliers @ Hawks [ -2.5 / 216 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 6, 2024
Hawks | 36-47 (43.4%)
Cavaliers | 53-41 (56.4%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Hawks (-2.5) a 32.4-45.6% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 216 around 5.3-4.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Hawks have a 35.9% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 5.2% chance of going over the total.

Cavaliers Situational Notes

Hawks Situational Notes

Cavaliers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/8	CLE	CLE -1 MIN +1	207	MIN	-	-	-
3/6	ATL	CLE +2.5 ATL -2.5	216	CLE	-	-	-
3/5	CLE [ 105 ]	CLE +8.5 BOS -8.5	217	BOS [ 104 ]	+1	+9.5	-8
3/3	CLE [ 98 ]	CLE -4 NYK +4	208.5	NYK [ 107 ]	-9	-13	-3.5
3/1	DET [ 100 ]	CLE -9 DET +9	222	CLE [ 110 ]	+10	+1	-12
2/28	CHI [ 132 ]	CLE -5 CHI +5	216.5	CLE [ 123 ]	-9	-14	+38.5
2/27	CLE [ 121 ]	CLE -4.5 DAL +4.5	232.5	DAL [ 119 ]	+2	-2.5	+7.5
2/25	WAS [ 105 ]	CLE -12.5 WAS +12.5	234.5	CLE [ 114 ]	+9	-3.5	-15.5
2/23	PHI [ 104 ]	CLE -3.5 PHI +3.5	228	CLE [ 97 ]	-7	-10.5	-27
2/22	CLE [ 109 ]	CLE -6.5 ORL +6.5	215.5	ORL [ 116 ]	-7	-13.5	+9.5

Hawks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/8	MEM	ATL -3 MEM +3	215	ATL	-	-	-
3/6	ATL	ATL -2.5 CLE +2.5	216	CLE	-	-	-
3/5	NYK [ 100 ]	ATL +1.5 NYK -1.5	213.5	ATL [ 116 ]	+16	+17.5	+2.5
3/2	BKN [ 114 ]	ATL +1.5 BKN -1.5	220.5	ATL [ 102 ]	-12	-10.5	-4.5
2/29	BKN [ 124 ]	ATL +1 BKN -1	220	ATL [ 97 ]	-27	-26	+1
2/27	ATL [ 124 ]	ATL -1.5 UTA +1.5	236.5	UTA [ 97 ]	+27	+25.5	-15.5
2/25	ATL [ 109 ]	ATL +1 ORL -1	225	ORL [ 92 ]	+17	+18	-24
2/23	ATL [ 121 ]	ATL -8 TOR +8	244	TOR [ 123 ]	-2	-10	0
2/14	CHA [ 122 ]	ATL -7 CHA +7	238	ATL [ 99 ]	-23	-30	-17
2/12	ATL [ 126 ]	ATL -4 CHI +4	238	CHI [ 136 ]	-10	-14	+24

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/6	ATL	ATL -2.5 CLE +2.5	216	CLE	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1/20	ATL [ 95 ]	ATL +2 CLE -2	232.5	CLE [ 116 ]	-21	-19	-21.5	118.7	96	117.2	-21.2	211
12/16	CLE [ 127 ]	ATL +4 CLE -4	235.5	ATL [ 119 ]	-8	-4	+10.5	116.2	122.9	131.2	-8.3	246
11/28	CLE [ 128 ]	ATL +4.5 CLE -4.5	238.5	ATL [ 105 ]	-23	-18.5	-5.5	123.5	102	124.3	-22.3	233
3/28	ATL [ 120 ]	ATL -3 CLE +3	239	CLE [ 118 ]	+2	-1	-1	120.1	119.9	117.9	2	238
2/24	ATL [ 136 ]	ATL +1 CLE -1	228.5	CLE [ 119 ]	+17	+18	+26.5	121	134.9	118	16.9	255
11/21	CLE [ 114 ]	ATL +3.5 CLE -3.5	227.5	ATL [ 102 ]	-12	-8.5	-11.5	116.9	104.7	117	-12.3	216

Filters

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Efficiency

Cavaliers (last 61 games)		Hawks (last 61 games)
0.59 (8)	Win Percentage	0.44 (22)
50.85 (13)	ATS Win%	32.79 (30)
45.9 (22)	OU%	51.72 (10)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
115.21 (18)	Offensive Rating	117.19 (14)
112.74 (6)	Defensive Rating	119.36 (27)
97.15 (26)	Pace	100.08 (9)
2.07 (11)	A/TO Ratio	1.96 (20)

Four Factors

Cavaliers (last 61 games)		Hawks (last 61 games)
55.67 (13)	EFG%	53.95 (18)
53.48 (6)	EFG% Allowed	57.24 (30)
23.38 (23)	FT Rate	25.13 (14)
24.02 (9)	FT Rate Allowed	24.21 (11)
23.19 (21)	OReb%	27.08 (4)
23.09 (6)	OReb% Allowed	24.79 (19)
13.87 (20)	TO Rate	13.41 (15)
13.91 (11)	TO Rate Forced	13.99 (10)

Scoring

Cavaliers (last 61 games)		Hawks (last 61 games)
112.63 (21)	PPG	118.33 (7)
110.22 (6)	PPG Allowed	120.51 (27)
16.6 (11)	Pts off TO	17.13 (9)
17.37 (23)	Pts off TO Allowed	16.67 (15)
13.59 (18)	2nd Chance Pts	15.83 (5)
12.87 (5)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (13)
14.78 (12)	Fast Break Pts	13.37 (21)
14.34 (16)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	16.62 (28)

Inside the Arc

Cavaliers (last 61 games)		Hawks (last 61 games)
43.45 (21)	Paint Attempts	45.78 (9)
42.2 (6)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.88 (22)
57.65 (14)	Paint FG%	54.85 (27)
55.14 (4)	Paint FG% Allowed	59.81 (27)
6.94 (28)	Mid-Range Attempts	8.99 (24)
11.5 (28)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	8.89 (5)
0.46 (4)	Mid-Range FG%	0.47 (2)
0.41 (13)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.43 (21)

Three Point Shooting

Cavaliers (last 61 games)		Hawks (last 61 games)
9.18 (12)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.6 (3)
9.54 (23)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	10.73 (28)
37.05 (26)	Corner 3 FG%	37.97 (21)
39.39 (15)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	40.57 (19)
27.46 (8)	ATB3 Attempts	26.94 (11)
24.06 (4)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	25.46 (14)
36.77 (11)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (16)
36.54 (16)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	37.79 (28)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Cavaliers 1h	37-22-2	18-6-0	3-5-0	11-5-2	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	40-21	18-6	3-5	13-5	6-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Hawks 1h	29-29-3	11-9-2	2-6-1	8-2-0	8-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	27-34	11-11	4-5	6-4	6-14	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Cavaliers 1h	30-27-4	13-9-2	3-5-0	8-9-1	6-4-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	30-29-2	12-11-1	3-5-0	8-9-1	7-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks 1h	31-29-1	11-11-0	3-5-1	7-3-0	10-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	20-41-0	6-16-0	4-5-0	3-7-0	7-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Cavaliers 1h	25-33-3	9-13-2	4-4-0	5-12-1	7-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	28-33-0	12-12-0	5-3-0	6-12-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks 1h	29-30-2	6-15-1	6-3-0	5-5-0	12-7-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	31-29-1	13-9-0	6-3-0	5-5-0	7-12-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Cavaliers 1h	27-33-1	14-9-1	2-6-0	6-12-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	28-32-1	12-12-0	4-4-0	6-11-1	6-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks 1h	29-31-1	7-14-1	6-3-0	5-5-0	11-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	31-30-0	11-11-0	6-3-0	6-4-0	8-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Cavaliers 1h	21-39-1	7-16-1	5-3-0	6-12-0	3-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	24-37-0	11-13-0	4-4-0	5-13-0	4-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks 1h	29-32-0	10-12-0	4-5-0	4-6-0	11-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hawks	39-21-1	16-6-0	5-4-0	7-2-1	11-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Hawks	1-0-0 (100%)	1-3-0 (25%)	3-7-0 (30%)	8-13-0 (38.1%)	4-12-0 (25%)	3-5-0 (37.5%)	0-1-0 (0%)
Cavaliers	1-0-0 (100%)	2-0-1 (100%)	7-6-0 (53.8%)	5-5-0 (50%)	9-8-1 (52.9%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	3-6-0 (33.3%)