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3/4 | 3/6BOS@CLE DET@MIA ORL@CHA ATL@NYK IND@DAL PHI@BKN PHO@DEN NOP@TOR SAS@HOU

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Celtics @ Cavaliers [ +8.5 / 217 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 5, 2024
Cavaliers | 53-41 (56.4%)
Celtics | 80-21 (79.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Cavaliers (+8.5) a 64-19% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 217 around 4.6-5.5% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Cavaliers have a 71.4% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 4.7% chance of going over the total.

Celtics Situational Notes

Cavaliers Situational Notes

Celtics Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/7	DEN	BOS -1 DEN +1	220.5	BOS	-	-	-
3/5	CLE	BOS -8.5 CLE +8.5	217	BOS	-	-	-
3/3	BOS [ 140 ]	BOS -11 GSW +11	231	GSW [ 88 ]	+52	+41	-3
3/1	BOS [ 138 ]	BOS -10 DAL +10	235.5	DAL [ 110 ]	+28	+18	+12.5
2/27	BOS [ 117 ]	BOS -12 PHI +12	230.5	PHI [ 99 ]	+18	+6	-14.5
2/24	NYK [ 102 ]	BOS -5.5 NYK +5.5	223.5	BOS [ 116 ]	+14	+8.5	-5.5
2/22	CHI [ 112 ]	BOS -8 CHI +8	225.5	BOS [ 129 ]	+17	+9	+15.5
2/14	BOS [ 136 ]	BOS -13 BKN +13	227	BKN [ 86 ]	+50	+37	-5
2/13	BKN [ 110 ]	BOS -8.5 BKN +8.5	228	BOS [ 118 ]	+8	-0.5	0
2/11	MIA [ 106 ]	BOS -5.5 MIA +5.5	226	BOS [ 110 ]	+4	-1.5	-10

Cavaliers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/6	ATL	CLE +2.5 ATL -2.5	216	CLE	-	-	-
3/5	CLE	CLE +8.5 BOS -8.5	217	BOS	-	-	-
3/3	CLE [ 98 ]	CLE -4 NYK +4	208.5	NYK [ 107 ]	-9	-13	-3.5
3/1	DET [ 100 ]	CLE -9 DET +9	222	CLE [ 110 ]	+10	+1	-12
2/28	CHI [ 132 ]	CLE -5 CHI +5	216.5	CLE [ 123 ]	-9	-14	+38.5
2/27	CLE [ 121 ]	CLE -4.5 DAL +4.5	232.5	DAL [ 119 ]	+2	-2.5	+7.5
2/25	WAS [ 105 ]	CLE -12.5 WAS +12.5	234.5	CLE [ 114 ]	+9	-3.5	-15.5
2/23	PHI [ 104 ]	CLE -3.5 PHI +3.5	228	CLE [ 97 ]	-7	-10.5	-27
2/22	CLE [ 109 ]	CLE -6.5 ORL +6.5	215.5	ORL [ 116 ]	-7	-13.5	+9.5
2/14	CLE [ 108 ]	CLE -9 CHI +9	224.5	CHI [ 105 ]	+3	-6	-11.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
5/15	BOS	CLE +14.5 BOS -14.5	204.5	CLE	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/13	CLE	CLE +8.5 BOS -8.5	206	BOS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/11	CLE	CLE +8 BOS -8	211	BOS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/9	BOS	CLE +13 BOS -13	212.5	CLE	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/7	BOS	CLE +11.5 BOS -11.5	210	CLE	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/5	CLE	CLE +8.5 BOS -8.5	217	BOS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12/14	BOS [ 116 ]	CLE +9 BOS -9	227.5	CLE [ 107 ]	-9	0	-4.5	112.7	113.9	123.5	-9.6	223
12/12	BOS [ 120 ]	CLE +11.5 BOS -11.5	225	CLE [ 113 ]	-7	+4.5	+8	115.6	117.3	124.6	-7.3	233
3/6	CLE [ 118 ]	CLE -8 BOS +8	219.5	BOS [ 114 ]	+4	-4	+12.5	113.4	113.1	109.3	3.8	210.1
3/1	BOS [ 117 ]	CLE +5 BOS -5	219	CLE [ 113 ]	-4	+1	+11	114.2	118.7	123	-4.2	230
11/2	CLE [ 114 ]	CLE +1.5 BOS -1.5	220.5	BOS [ 113 ]	+1	+2.5	+6.5	118.7	104.4	103.5	0.9	205.6

Filters

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Efficiency

Celtics (last 60 games)		Cavaliers (last 60 games)
0.78 (1)	Win Percentage	0.59 (9)
50.88 (13)	ATS Win%	50 (16)
49.15 (16)	OU%	46.67 (22)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
123.16 (1)	Offensive Rating	115.21 (18)
111.48 (2)	Defensive Rating	112.74 (5)
97.16 (25)	Pace	97.15 (26)
2.25 (3)	A/TO Ratio	2.07 (11)

Four Factors

Celtics (last 60 games)		Cavaliers (last 60 games)
57.82 (1)	EFG%	55.67 (13)
52.26 (2)	EFG% Allowed	53.48 (6)
22.36 (27)	FT Rate	23.38 (22)
18.92 (1)	FT Rate Allowed	24.02 (8)
24.88 (15)	OReb%	23.19 (21)
23.68 (12)	OReb% Allowed	23.09 (5)
12.2 (2)	TO Rate	13.87 (20)
12.29 (28)	TO Rate Forced	13.91 (12)

Scoring

Celtics (last 60 games)		Cavaliers (last 60 games)
120.57 (4)	PPG	112.63 (21)
109.13 (2)	PPG Allowed	110.22 (6)
15.5 (25)	Pts off TO	16.6 (11)
13.28 (1)	Pts off TO Allowed	17.37 (23)
14.45 (11)	2nd Chance Pts	13.59 (17)
13.65 (12)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	12.87 (5)
15.38 (9)	Fast Break Pts	14.78 (11)
12.95 (4)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	14.34 (17)

Inside the Arc

Celtics (last 60 games)		Cavaliers (last 60 games)
38.65 (29)	Paint Attempts	43.45 (20)
43.72 (13)	Paint Attempts Allowed	42.2 (6)
60.87 (2)	Paint FG%	57.65 (14)
54.56 (3)	Paint FG% Allowed	55.14 (4)
9.1 (23)	Mid-Range Attempts	6.94 (28)
11.26 (27)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	11.5 (28)
0.43 (10)	Mid-Range FG%	0.46 (4)
0.42 (18)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.41 (13)

Three Point Shooting

Celtics (last 60 games)		Cavaliers (last 60 games)
9.32 (11)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.18 (13)
7.73 (7)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	9.54 (23)
43.06 (1)	Corner 3 FG%	37.05 (26)
35.17 (1)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	39.39 (16)
33 (1)	ATB3 Attempts	27.46 (8)
28.67 (30)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	24.06 (4)
37.73 (4)	ATB3 FG%	36.77 (8)
35.56 (10)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	36.54 (17)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	48-12-0	24-8-0	0-0-0	23-3-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	48-12	29-3	0-0	18-8	1-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Cavaliers 1h	37-21-2	18-6-0	3-4-0	11-5-2	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	39-21	18-6	2-5	13-5	6-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	42-17-1	21-11-0	0-0-0	20-5-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	30-28-2	18-14-0	0-0-0	11-13-2	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	30-26-4	13-9-2	3-4-0	8-9-1	6-4-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	29-29-2	12-11-1	2-5-0	8-9-1	7-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	31-28-1	18-14-0	0-0-0	12-13-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	29-30-1	16-16-0	0-0-0	12-13-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	25-32-3	9-13-2	4-3-0	5-12-1	7-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	28-32-0	12-12-0	5-2-0	6-12-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	34-25-1	21-11-0	0-0-0	12-13-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	32-28-0	19-13-0	0-0-0	12-14-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	27-32-1	14-9-1	2-5-0	6-12-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	27-32-1	12-12-0	3-4-0	6-11-1	6-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	23-36-1	12-20-0	0-0-0	9-16-1	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	28-32-0	15-17-0	0-0-0	12-14-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	21-38-1	7-16-1	5-2-0	6-12-0	3-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	24-36-0	11-13-0	4-3-0	5-13-0	4-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Cavaliers	1-0-0 (100%)	1-0-1 (100%)	7-6-0 (53.8%)	5-5-0 (50%)	9-8-1 (52.9%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	3-6-0 (33.3%)
Celtics	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	1-1-0 (50%)	0-0-0 (-)	7-10-1 (41.2%)	8-9-1 (47.1%)	13-8-1 (61.9%)