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3/3 | 3/5LAC@MIL WAS@UTA CHI@SAC OKC@LAL MEM@BKN POR@MIN

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Clippers @ Bucks [ +3 / 222 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 4, 2024
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)
Clippers | 53-35 (60.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (+3) a 62.4-82% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 222 around 5.2-2.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 69.8% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 5.5% chance of going over the total.

Clippers Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Clippers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/6	HOU	LAC -6.5 HOU +6.5	224.5	LAC	-	-	-
3/4	MIL	LAC -3 MIL +3	222	LAC	-	-	-
3/3	MIN [ 88 ]	LAC +2 MIN -2	220	LAC [ 89 ]	+1	+3	-43
3/1	LAC [ 140 ]	LAC -15.5 WAS +15.5	238.5	WAS [ 115 ]	+25	+9.5	+16.5
2/28	LAC [ 112 ]	LAC -3.5 LAL +3.5	234.5	LAL [ 116 ]	-4	-7.5	-6.5
2/25	LAC [ 107 ]	LAC -5 SAC +5	239.5	SAC [ 123 ]	-16	-21	-9.5
2/23	MEM [ 95 ]	LAC -9 MEM +9	222.5	LAC [ 101 ]	+6	-3	-26.5
2/22	OKC [ 129 ]	LAC +2 OKC -2	236	LAC [ 107 ]	-22	-20	0
2/14	GSW [ 125 ]	LAC +3 GSW -3	234.5	LAC [ 130 ]	+5	+8	+20.5
2/12	LAC [ 100 ]	LAC -4.5 MIN +4.5	223.5	MIN [ 121 ]	-21	-25.5	-2.5

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/6	GSW	MIL +4.5 GSW -4.5	226.5	MIL	-	-	-
3/4	MIL	MIL +3 LAC -3	222	LAC	-	-	-
3/1	CHI [ 97 ]	MIL -4 CHI +4	221.5	MIL [ 113 ]	+16	+12	-11.5
2/29	CHA [ 99 ]	MIL -11.5 CHA +11.5	219	MIL [ 111 ]	+12	+0.5	-9
2/27	MIL [ 123 ]	MIL -14.5 CHA +14.5	220.5	CHA [ 85 ]	+38	+23.5	-12.5
2/25	PHI [ 98 ]	MIL -4.5 PHI +4.5	235	MIL [ 119 ]	+21	+16.5	-18
2/23	MIN [ 107 ]	MIL +4 MIN -4	225.5	MIL [ 112 ]	+5	+9	-6.5
2/15	MEM [ 113 ]	MIL -14 MEM +14	223.5	MIL [ 110 ]	-3	-17	-0.5
2/13	MIL [ 97 ]	MIL -8.5 MIA +8.5	222.5	MIA [ 123 ]	-26	-34.5	-2.5
2/12	MIL [ 112 ]	MIL +1.5 DEN -1.5	231.5	DEN [ 95 ]	+17	+18.5	-24.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/10	LAC	MIL -5.5 LAC +5.5	222.5	MIL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/4	MIL	MIL +3 LAC -3	222	LAC	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/10	LAC [ 106 ]	MIL -2 LAC +2	228	MIL [ 119 ]	+13	+11	-3	116.5	122.5	109.2	13.4	225
2/2	MIL [ 106 ]	MIL -4.5 LAC +4.5	230	LAC [ 105 ]	+1	-3.5	-19	121	105.1	104.1	1	211

Filters

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Efficiency

Clippers (last 59 games)		Bucks (last 61 games)
0.62 (6)	Win Percentage	0.6 (7)
51.72 (12)	ATS Win%	41.67 (28)
43.86 (25)	OU%	50 (13)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
118.77 (4)	Offensive Rating	118.36 (6)
115.4 (14)	Defensive Rating	115.75 (16)
97.22 (26)	Pace	99.89 (10)
1.95 (20)	A/TO Ratio	2.05 (11)

Four Factors

Clippers (last 59 games)		Bucks (last 61 games)
56.15 (9)	EFG%	56.76 (4)
54.06 (10)	EFG% Allowed	53.85 (9)
25.56 (14)	FT Rate	27 (6)
23.57 (7)	FT Rate Allowed	23.4 (6)
24.37 (17)	OReb%	21.83 (27)
25.18 (22)	OReb% Allowed	22.83 (5)
13.5 (18)	TO Rate	12.85 (6)
13.39 (20)	TO Rate Forced	11.96 (29)

Scoring

Clippers (last 59 games)		Bucks (last 61 games)
115.62 (14)	PPG	118.98 (5)
112.34 (9)	PPG Allowed	116.35 (18)
16.16 (17)	Pts off TO	14.54 (29)
15.66 (10)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.96 (5)
12.68 (24)	2nd Chance Pts	13.07 (22)
14.05 (17)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (14)
14.78 (12)	Fast Break Pts	12.68 (24)
14.89 (21)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.63 (10)

Inside the Arc

Clippers (last 59 games)		Bucks (last 61 games)
42.62 (23)	Paint Attempts	38.49 (29)
44.2 (18)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.46 (20)
59.14 (9)	Paint FG%	61.28 (1)
56.21 (9)	Paint FG% Allowed	57.35 (14)
10.9 (9)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.95 (4)
9.28 (9)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.12 (30)
0.41 (16)	Mid-Range FG%	0.45 (7)
0.42 (22)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (20)

Three Point Shooting

Clippers (last 59 games)		Bucks (last 61 games)
8.78 (18)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.13 (6)
9.43 (22)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.85 (7)
40.97 (7)	Corner 3 FG%	41.16 (6)
37.26 (6)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.8 (5)
24.27 (20)	ATB3 Attempts	27.82 (7)
25.87 (16)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.28 (24)
37.24 (7)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (15)
36.12 (15)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.54 (11)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Clippers 1h	36-21-2	18-10-0	0-1-0	13-3-2	4-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	39-20	21-7	0-1	14-4	3-8	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bucks 1h	38-21-1	22-8-0	1-0-0	13-10-0	2-3-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	40-21	23-7	1-0	15-9	1-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Clippers 1h	30-28-1	14-14-0	0-1-0	11-6-1	4-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	30-28-1	14-13-1	0-1-0	11-7-0	4-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	28-27-5	18-9-3	1-0-0	6-15-2	3-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	25-35-1	11-18-1	1-0-0	11-13-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Clippers 1h	23-36-0	10-18-0	1-0-0	10-8-0	2-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	24-31-4	10-16-2	1-0-0	8-9-1	5-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	23-37-0	12-18-0	0-1-0	10-13-0	1-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	31-29-1	18-12-0	0-1-0	12-11-1	1-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Clippers 1h	23-35-1	11-17-0	0-1-0	10-7-1	2-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	31-28-0	14-14-0	0-1-0	12-6-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	25-35-0	14-16-0	1-0-0	10-13-0	0-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	30-31-0	17-13-0	0-1-0	11-13-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Clippers 1h	24-35-0	12-16-0	1-0-0	6-12-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Clippers	30-29-0	15-13-0	1-0-0	8-10-0	6-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	26-33-1	12-17-1	0-1-0	12-11-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	33-26-2	19-11-0	0-1-0	13-9-2	1-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	2-3-0 (40%)	3-3-0 (50%)	12-11-0 (52.2%)	3-8-1 (27.3%)	5-10-0 (33.3%)
Clippers	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	2-3-0 (40%)	6-5-0 (54.5%)	11-9-0 (55%)	8-5-0 (61.5%)	2-6-1 (25%)