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Blazers @ Grizzlies [ -2 / 210 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 2, 2024
Grizzlies | 27-55 (32.9%)
Trailblazers | 21-61 (25.6%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Grizzlies (-2) a 49.2-43.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 210 around 3.6-3.4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Grizzlies have a 50.3% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 3.1% chance of going over the total.

Trailblazers Situational Notes

Grizzlies Situational Notes

Trailblazers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/4	MIN	POR +15.5 MIN -15.5	210.5	POR	-	-	-
3/2	MEM	POR +2 MEM -2	210	POR	-	-	-
3/1	MEM [ 92 ]	POR +1.5 MEM -1.5	208	POR [ 122 ]	+30	+31.5	+6
2/27	POR [ 96 ]	POR +6.5 MIA -6.5	213	MIA [ 106 ]	-10	-3.5	-11
2/25	POR [ 80 ]	POR -3 CHA +3	214	CHA [ 93 ]	-13	-16	-41
2/23	POR [ 112 ]	POR +9 DEN -9	218.5	DEN [ 127 ]	-15	-6	+20.5
2/15	POR [ 91 ]	POR +10 MIN -10	216	MIN [ 128 ]	-37	-27	+3
2/13	POR [ 109 ]	POR +8.5 MIN -8.5	215	MIN [ 121 ]	-12	-3.5	+15
2/10	POR [ 84 ]	POR +7.5 NOP -7.5	222	NOP [ 93 ]	-9	-1.5	-45
2/8	POR [ 122 ]	POR -6 DET +6	220.5	DET [ 128 ]	-6	-12	+29.5

Grizzlies Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/4	BKN	MEM +10 BKN -10	206.5	MEM	-	-	-
3/2	MEM	MEM -2 POR +2	210	POR	-	-	-
3/1	MEM [ 92 ]	MEM -1.5 POR +1.5	208	POR [ 122 ]	-30	-31.5	+6
2/28	MIN [ 110 ]	MEM +12 MIN -12	211.5	MEM [ 101 ]	-9	+3	-0.5
2/26	MEM [ 86 ]	MEM +2 BKN -2	214.5	BKN [ 111 ]	-25	-23	-17.5
2/23	MEM [ 95 ]	MEM +9 LAC -9	222.5	LAC [ 101 ]	-6	+3	-26.5
2/15	MEM [ 113 ]	MEM +14 MIL -14	223.5	MIL [ 110 ]	+3	+17	-0.5
2/14	MEM [ 121 ]	MEM +3 HOU -3	219.5	HOU [ 113 ]	+8	+11	+14.5
2/12	MEM [ 87 ]	MEM +9 NOP -9	222	NOP [ 96 ]	-9	0	-39
2/10	CHA [ 115 ]	MEM -5.5 CHA +5.5	215	MEM [ 106 ]	-9	-14.5	+6

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/2	MEM	MEM -2 POR +2	210	POR	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/1	MEM [ 92 ]	MEM -1.5 POR +1.5	208	POR [ 122 ]	-30	-31.5	+6	114.9	96.1	127.4	-31.3	214
11/5	POR [ 100 ]	MEM -3 POR +3	218.5	MEM [ 112 ]	+12	+9	-6.5	117.4	114.5	102.2	12.3	212
11/3	POR [ 115 ]	MEM -4 POR +4	220	MEM [ 113 ]	-2	-6	+8	118.2	103.9	105.7	-1.8	206.5
4/4	MEM [ 119 ]	MEM -18 POR +18	228.5	POR [ 109 ]	+10	-8	-0.5	119.2	119.8	109.7	10.1	228
2/1	MEM [ 112 ]	MEM -6 POR +6	238.5	POR [ 122 ]	-10	-16	-4.5	118.7	113.3	123.4	-10.1	234
11/2	POR [ 106 ]	MEM -5 POR +5	227.5	MEM [ 111 ]	+5	0	-10.5	119.2	111.7	106.7	5	217

Filters

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Efficiency

Blazers (last 58 games)		Grizzlies (last 60 games)
0.26 (26)	Win Percentage	0.33 (25)
43.64 (26)	ATS Win%	45.76 (23)
46.55 (22)	OU%	41.67 (28)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
108.31 (29)	Offensive Rating	107.22 (30)
117.5 (22)	Defensive Rating	114.32 (10)
97.22 (26)	Pace	98.19 (18)
1.52 (30)	A/TO Ratio	1.64 (29)

Four Factors

Blazers (last 58 games)		Grizzlies (last 60 games)
50.25 (30)	EFG%	50.91 (29)
55.79 (22)	EFG% Allowed	55.13 (18)
22.84 (25)	FT Rate	23.82 (20)
27.28 (25)	FT Rate Allowed	25.04 (15)
27.54 (5)	OReb%	23.82 (20)
26.01 (28)	OReb% Allowed	25.17 (21)
15.51 (29)	TO Rate	15.27 (27)
14.57 (4)	TO Rate Forced	15.31 (3)

Scoring

Blazers (last 58 games)		Grizzlies (last 60 games)
106.37 (29)	PPG	105.82 (30)
115.39 (17)	PPG Allowed	112.82 (9)
15.8 (22)	Pts off TO	17.37 (6)
19.07 (28)	Pts off TO Allowed	18.46 (27)
16.06 (4)	2nd Chance Pts	13.44 (19)
14.18 (19)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.98 (15)
12.68 (25)	Fast Break Pts	11.61 (30)
16.96 (29)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	15.07 (21)

Inside the Arc

Blazers (last 58 games)		Grizzlies (last 60 games)
45.65 (10)	Paint Attempts	44.09 (20)
43.68 (13)	Paint Attempts Allowed	42.71 (7)
51.32 (30)	Paint FG%	52.2 (29)
61.25 (30)	Paint FG% Allowed	56.37 (9)
10.85 (9)	Mid-Range Attempts	6.29 (30)
9.67 (11)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	8.79 (2)
0.41 (16)	Mid-Range FG%	0.36 (28)
0.42 (17)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.43 (22)

Three Point Shooting

Blazers (last 58 games)		Grizzlies (last 60 games)
8.43 (20)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.72 (8)
8.13 (9)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.93 (7)
36.61 (27)	Corner 3 FG%	34.88 (30)
40.33 (18)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	41.23 (25)
24.63 (18)	ATB3 Attempts	27.8 (6)
24.98 (9)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.34 (25)
33.96 (30)	ATB3 FG%	34.78 (23)
33.59 (2)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	37.02 (23)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Trailblazers 1h	17-40-0	2-4-0	7-15-0	0-0-0	8-21-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Trailblazers	16-42	1-5	8-15	0-0	7-22	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Grizzlies 1h	22-37-0	3-6-0	8-12-0	1-5-0	10-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	20-40	3-6	4-17	3-3	10-14	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Trailblazers 1h	24-33-0	2-4-0	8-14-0	0-0-0	14-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Trailblazers	26-31-1	1-5-0	10-13-0	0-0-0	15-13-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	25-34-0	3-6-0	10-10-0	1-5-0	11-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	27-32-1	2-7-0	8-12-1	3-3-0	14-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Trailblazers 1h	28-29-0	3-3-0	11-11-0	0-0-0	14-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Trailblazers	27-31-0	3-3-0	10-13-0	0-0-0	14-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	18-39-2	3-6-0	5-14-1	2-4-0	8-15-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	27-33-0	3-6-0	7-14-0	3-3-0	14-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Trailblazers 1h	24-32-1	2-4-0	10-11-1	0-0-0	12-17-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Trailblazers	27-31-0	2-4-0	12-11-0	0-0-0	13-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	19-39-1	3-6-0	9-10-1	1-5-0	6-18-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	24-36-0	1-8-0	7-14-0	4-2-0	12-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Trailblazers 1h	26-30-1	3-3-0	11-11-0	0-0-0	12-16-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Trailblazers	28-30-0	4-2-0	9-14-0	0-0-0	15-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	27-32-0	5-4-0	9-11-0	5-1-0	8-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	26-33-1	5-4-0	8-13-0	2-3-1	11-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Grizzlies	5-4-0 (55.6%)	10-7-1 (58.8%)	6-7-0 (46.2%)	3-10-0 (23.1%)	3-3-0 (50%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-1-0 (0%)
Trailblazers	10-10-2 (50%)	8-7-0 (53.3%)	5-8-0 (38.5%)	1-1-0 (50%)	0-5-1 (0%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)