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2/29 | 3/2MIL@CHI DAL@BOS WAS@LAC POR@MEM IND@NOP CLE@DET GSW@TOR CHA@PHI SAC@MIN

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Bucks @ Bulls [ +4 / 221.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 1, 2024
Bulls | 40-44 (47.6%)
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bulls (+4) a 52.2-39.9% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 221.5 around 4.1-3.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bulls have a 63.4% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 3.8% chance of going over the total.

Bucks Situational Notes

Bulls Situational Notes

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/4	MIL	MIL +3 LAC -3	222	LAC	-	-	-
3/1	CHI	MIL -4 CHI +4	221.5	MIL	-	-	-
2/29	CHA [ 99 ]	MIL -11.5 CHA +11.5	219	MIL [ 111 ]	+12	+0.5	-9
2/27	MIL [ 123 ]	MIL -14.5 CHA +14.5	220.5	CHA [ 85 ]	+38	+23.5	-12.5
2/25	PHI [ 98 ]	MIL -4.5 PHI +4.5	235	MIL [ 119 ]	+21	+16.5	-18
2/23	MIN [ 107 ]	MIL +4 MIN -4	225.5	MIL [ 112 ]	+5	+9	-6.5
2/15	MEM [ 113 ]	MIL -14 MEM +14	223.5	MIL [ 110 ]	-3	-17	-0.5
2/13	MIL [ 97 ]	MIL -8.5 MIA +8.5	222.5	MIA [ 123 ]	-26	-34.5	-2.5
2/12	MIL [ 112 ]	MIL +1.5 DEN -1.5	231.5	DEN [ 95 ]	+17	+18.5	-24.5
2/9	MIL [ 120 ]	MIL -16.5 CHA +16.5	227.5	CHA [ 84 ]	+36	+19.5	-23.5

Bulls Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/4	SAC	CHI +6.5 SAC -6.5	228	CHI	-	-	-
3/1	CHI	CHI +4 MIL -4	221.5	MIL	-	-	-
2/28	CHI [ 132 ]	CHI +5 CLE -5	216.5	CLE [ 123 ]	+9	+14	+38.5
2/27	CHI [ 95 ]	CHI -11 DET +11	225	DET [ 105 ]	-10	-21	-25
2/25	NOP [ 106 ]	CHI +4 NOP -4	222.5	CHI [ 114 ]	+8	+12	-2.5
2/22	CHI [ 112 ]	CHI +8 BOS -8	225.5	BOS [ 129 ]	-17	-9	+15.5
2/14	CLE [ 108 ]	CHI +9 CLE -9	224.5	CHI [ 105 ]	-3	+6	-11.5
2/12	ATL [ 126 ]	CHI +4 ATL -4	238	CHI [ 136 ]	+10	+14	+24
2/10	ORL [ 114 ]	CHI +5.5 ORL -5.5	218	CHI [ 108 ]	-6	-0.5	+4
2/8	MEM [ 110 ]	CHI -5.5 MEM +5.5	216	CHI [ 118 ]	+8	+2.5	+12

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/1	CHI	CHI +4 MIL -4	221.5	MIL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12/11	MIL [ 133 ]	CHI +11.5 MIL -11.5	232.5	CHI [ 129 ]	-4	+7.5	+29.5	115.9	120.9	124.7	-3.7	237.3
11/30	CHI [ 120 ]	CHI +9.5 MIL -9.5	226.5	MIL [ 113 ]	+7	+16.5	+6.5	121.3	107.5	101.3	6.3	211
11/13	MIL [ 118 ]	CHI +9.5 MIL -9.5	230	CHI [ 109 ]	-9	+0.5	-3	115.8	112.9	122.3	-9.3	227
4/5	MIL [ 105 ]	CHI +5 MIL -5	230	CHI [ 92 ]	-13	-8	-33	114.1	96.7	110.4	-13.7	197
2/16	CHI [ 100 ]	CHI +7.5 MIL -7.5	229.5	MIL [ 112 ]	-12	-4.5	-17.5	113.2	106	118.7	-12.7	212
12/28	CHI [ 119 ]	CHI +2.5 MIL -2.5	231	MIL [ 113 ]	+6	+8.5	+1	120.9	107	101.6	5.4	210.1
11/23	MIL [ 113 ]	CHI +7 MIL -7	224	CHI [ 118 ]	+5	+12	+7	124.5	113.7	108.9	4.8	231

Filters

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Efficiency

Bucks (last 60 games)		Bulls (last 59 games)
0.6 (7)	Win Percentage	0.48 (19)
40.68 (27)	ATS Win%	55.17 (4)
50.85 (14)	OU%	55.93 (2)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
118.36 (7)	Offensive Rating	114.85 (19)
115.75 (16)	Defensive Rating	116.32 (18)
99.89 (10)	Pace	96.28 (29)
2.05 (11)	A/TO Ratio	2.04 (13)

Four Factors

Bucks (last 60 games)		Bulls (last 59 games)
56.76 (4)	EFG%	53.39 (23)
53.85 (8)	EFG% Allowed	55.64 (20)
27 (6)	FT Rate	23.59 (21)
23.4 (6)	FT Rate Allowed	25.09 (15)
21.83 (27)	OReb%	25.13 (11)
22.83 (4)	OReb% Allowed	23.65 (13)
12.85 (6)	TO Rate	12.53 (4)
11.96 (28)	TO Rate Forced	14.31 (8)

Scoring

Bucks (last 60 games)		Bulls (last 59 games)
118.98 (6)	PPG	112.27 (23)
116.35 (18)	PPG Allowed	113.71 (13)
14.54 (29)	Pts off TO	17.17 (9)
14.96 (5)	Pts off TO Allowed	15.23 (9)
13.07 (23)	2nd Chance Pts	13.63 (18)
13.67 (13)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.82 (16)
12.68 (24)	Fast Break Pts	12.45 (27)
13.63 (10)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.27 (5)

Inside the Arc

Bucks (last 60 games)		Bulls (last 59 games)
38.49 (28)	Paint Attempts	42.85 (24)
44.46 (20)	Paint Attempts Allowed	38.5 (1)
61.28 (1)	Paint FG%	56.46 (20)
57.35 (14)	Paint FG% Allowed	59.01 (23)
11.95 (4)	Mid-Range Attempts	14.56 (1)
12.12 (30)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9 (5)
0.45 (6)	Mid-Range FG%	0.44 (10)
0.42 (20)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (19)

Three Point Shooting

Bucks (last 60 games)		Bulls (last 59 games)
10.13 (6)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.21 (12)
7.85 (7)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	11.12 (29)
41.16 (7)	Corner 3 FG%	38.54 (19)
36.8 (5)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	41.56 (28)
27.82 (7)	ATB3 Attempts	22.74 (27)
27.28 (24)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	28.18 (27)
35.99 (16)	ATB3 FG%	34.91 (22)
35.54 (10)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.31 (8)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	37-21-1	22-8-0	1-0-0	12-10-0	2-3-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	39-21	23-7	1-0	14-9	1-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bulls 1h	26-32-1	12-6-0	2-9-1	4-4-0	8-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	28-31	9-9	7-5	7-1	5-16	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	27-27-5	18-9-3	1-0-0	5-15-2	3-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	24-35-1	11-18-1	1-0-0	10-13-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	29-28-2	11-7-0	4-7-1	4-4-0	10-10-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	31-27-1	8-10-0	7-4-1	6-2-0	10-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	23-36-0	12-18-0	0-1-0	10-12-0	1-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	31-28-1	18-12-0	0-1-0	12-10-1	1-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	24-33-2	7-10-1	6-6-0	4-4-0	7-13-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	33-26-0	7-11-0	9-3-0	6-2-0	11-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	24-35-0	14-16-0	1-0-0	9-13-0	0-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	29-31-0	17-13-0	0-1-0	10-13-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	20-37-2	5-13-0	4-8-0	3-5-0	8-11-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	30-29-0	5-13-0	8-4-0	6-2-0	11-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	26-32-1	12-17-1	0-1-0	12-10-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	33-25-2	19-11-0	0-1-0	13-8-2	1-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	25-34-0	5-13-0	5-7-0	5-3-0	10-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	35-23-1	9-9-0	8-4-0	6-2-0	12-8-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bulls	2-2-0 (50%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	11-7-0 (61.1%)	3-4-1 (42.9%)	11-7-0 (61.1%)	2-1-0 (66.7%)	0-1-0 (0%)
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	2-3-0 (40%)	3-3-0 (50%)	11-11-0 (50%)	3-8-1 (27.3%)	5-10-0 (33.3%)