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2/27 | 2/29CLE@CHI LAL@LAC SAC@DEN NOP@IND DAL@TOR MEM@MIN

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Cavaliers @ Bulls [ +5 / 216.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

February 28, 2024
Bulls | 40-44 (47.6%)
Cavaliers | 53-41 (56.4%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bulls (+5) a 52.2-56.2% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 216.5 around 3.8-4.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bulls have a 57.2% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 3.2% chance of going over the total.

Cavaliers Situational Notes

Bulls Situational Notes

Cavaliers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/1	DET	CLE -9 DET +9	222	CLE	-	-	-
2/28	CHI	CLE -5 CHI +5	216.5	CLE	-	-	-
2/27	CLE [ 121 ]	CLE -4.5 DAL +4.5	232.5	DAL [ 119 ]	+2	-2.5	+7.5
2/25	WAS [ 105 ]	CLE -12.5 WAS +12.5	234.5	CLE [ 114 ]	+9	-3.5	-15.5
2/23	PHI [ 104 ]	CLE -3.5 PHI +3.5	228	CLE [ 97 ]	-7	-10.5	-27
2/22	CLE [ 109 ]	CLE -6.5 ORL +6.5	215.5	ORL [ 116 ]	-7	-13.5	+9.5
2/14	CLE [ 108 ]	CLE -9 CHI +9	224.5	CHI [ 105 ]	+3	-6	-11.5
2/12	CLE [ 121 ]	CLE -10 PHI +10	230	PHI [ 123 ]	-2	-12	+14
2/10	TOR [ 95 ]	CLE -9 TOR +9	230	CLE [ 119 ]	+24	+15	-16
2/8	BKN [ 95 ]	CLE -6 BKN +6	225.5	CLE [ 118 ]	+23	+17	-12.5

Bulls Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/1	CHI	CHI +4 MIL -4	221.5	MIL	-	-	-
2/28	CHI	CHI +5 CLE -5	216.5	CLE	-	-	-
2/27	CHI [ 95 ]	CHI -11 DET +11	225	DET [ 105 ]	-10	-21	-25
2/25	NOP [ 106 ]	CHI +4 NOP -4	222.5	CHI [ 114 ]	+8	+12	-2.5
2/22	CHI [ 112 ]	CHI +8 BOS -8	225.5	BOS [ 129 ]	-17	-9	+15.5
2/14	CLE [ 108 ]	CHI +9 CLE -9	224.5	CHI [ 105 ]	-3	+6	-11.5
2/12	ATL [ 126 ]	CHI +4 ATL -4	238	CHI [ 136 ]	+10	+14	+24
2/10	ORL [ 114 ]	CHI +5.5 ORL -5.5	218	CHI [ 108 ]	-6	-0.5	+4
2/8	MEM [ 110 ]	CHI -5.5 MEM +5.5	216	CHI [ 118 ]	+8	+2.5	+12
2/6	CHI [ 129 ]	CHI +5.5 MIN -5.5	216	MIN [ 123 ]	+6	+11.5	+36

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
2/28	CHI	CHI +5 CLE -5	216.5	CLE	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/14	CLE [ 108 ]	CHI +9 CLE -9	224.5	CHI [ 105 ]	-3	+6	-11.5	111.2	113.3	116.5	-3.2	213
1/15	CLE [ 109 ]	CHI +4.5 CLE -4.5	222.5	CHI [ 91 ]	-18	-13.5	-22.5	116.8	93.5	112	-18.5	200
12/23	CHI [ 95 ]	CHI -5.5 CLE +5.5	215	CLE [ 109 ]	-14	-19.5	-11	112.2	101.6	116.6	-15	204
2/11	CLE [ 97 ]	CHI +6.5 CLE -6.5	220.5	CHI [ 89 ]	-8	-1.5	-34.5	114.9	93	101.3	-8.4	186
1/2	CLE [ 145 ]	CHI +4 CLE -4	225	CHI [ 134 ]	-11	-7	+54	117.1	124.4	134.6	-10.2	252.7
12/31	CHI [ 102 ]	CHI +1 CLE -1	223.5	CLE [ 103 ]	-1	0	-18.5	116.4	105.2	106.2	-1	205
10/22	CHI [ 96 ]	CHI +1.5 CLE -1.5	220.5	CLE [ 128 ]	-32	-30.5	+3.5	116.3	99	132	-33	224

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

Isolate games after ASB:

Include regular season:

Include post-season:

Current matchup:

Efficiency

Cavaliers (last 57 games)		Bulls (last 58 games)
0.59 (10)	Win Percentage	0.48 (19)
50.91 (16)	ATS Win%	54.39 (5)
47.37 (19)	OU%	55.17 (5)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
115.21 (17)	Offensive Rating	114.85 (19)
112.74 (5)	Defensive Rating	116.32 (17)
97.15 (26)	Pace	96.28 (29)
2.07 (10)	A/TO Ratio	2.04 (13)

Four Factors

Cavaliers (last 57 games)		Bulls (last 58 games)
55.67 (11)	EFG%	53.39 (23)
53.48 (6)	EFG% Allowed	55.64 (20)
23.38 (24)	FT Rate	23.59 (21)
24.02 (9)	FT Rate Allowed	25.09 (14)
23.19 (21)	OReb%	25.13 (12)
23.09 (6)	OReb% Allowed	23.65 (12)
13.87 (20)	TO Rate	12.53 (3)
13.91 (12)	TO Rate Forced	14.31 (8)

Scoring

Cavaliers (last 57 games)		Bulls (last 58 games)
112.63 (22)	PPG	112.27 (23)
110.22 (4)	PPG Allowed	113.71 (13)
16.6 (12)	Pts off TO	17.17 (9)
17.37 (22)	Pts off TO Allowed	15.23 (9)
13.59 (18)	2nd Chance Pts	13.63 (17)
12.87 (6)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.82 (15)
14.78 (13)	Fast Break Pts	12.45 (27)
14.34 (16)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.27 (5)

Inside the Arc

Cavaliers (last 57 games)		Bulls (last 58 games)
43.45 (20)	Paint Attempts	42.85 (23)
42.2 (6)	Paint Attempts Allowed	38.5 (1)
57.65 (15)	Paint FG%	56.46 (20)
55.14 (4)	Paint FG% Allowed	59.01 (23)
6.94 (28)	Mid-Range Attempts	14.56 (1)
11.5 (28)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9 (5)
0.46 (4)	Mid-Range FG%	0.44 (10)
0.41 (11)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (19)

Three Point Shooting

Cavaliers (last 57 games)		Bulls (last 58 games)
9.18 (13)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.21 (12)
9.54 (23)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	11.12 (29)
37.05 (26)	Corner 3 FG%	38.54 (20)
39.39 (16)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	41.56 (28)
27.46 (9)	ATB3 Attempts	22.74 (27)
24.06 (5)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	28.18 (26)
36.77 (10)	ATB3 FG%	34.91 (23)
36.54 (16)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.31 (9)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Cavaliers 1h	34-21-2	17-6-0	3-4-0	9-5-2	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	38-19	18-5	2-5	12-4	6-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bulls 1h	26-31-1	12-6-0	2-8-1	4-4-0	8-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	27-31	9-9	6-5	7-1	5-16	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Cavaliers 1h	29-25-3	13-9-1	3-4-0	7-8-1	6-4-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	28-27-2	12-10-1	2-5-0	7-8-1	7-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	28-28-2	11-7-0	3-7-1	4-4-0	10-10-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	30-27-1	8-10-0	6-4-1	6-2-0	10-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Cavaliers 1h	25-29-3	9-12-2	4-3-0	5-10-1	7-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	27-30-0	12-11-0	5-2-0	5-11-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	24-32-2	7-10-1	6-5-0	4-4-0	7-13-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	32-26-0	7-11-0	8-3-0	6-2-0	11-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Cavaliers 1h	26-30-1	14-8-1	2-5-0	5-11-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	26-30-1	12-11-0	3-4-0	5-10-1	6-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	20-36-2	5-13-0	4-7-0	3-5-0	8-11-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	29-29-0	5-13-0	7-4-0	6-2-0	11-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Cavaliers 1h	21-35-1	7-15-1	5-2-0	6-10-0	3-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	22-35-0	10-13-0	4-3-0	4-12-0	4-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	25-33-0	5-13-0	5-6-0	5-3-0	10-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	34-23-1	9-9-0	7-4-0	6-2-0	12-8-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bulls	2-2-0 (50%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	10-7-0 (58.8%)	3-4-1 (42.9%)	11-7-0 (61.1%)	2-1-0 (66.7%)	0-1-0 (0%)
Cavaliers	1-0-0 (100%)	1-0-1 (100%)	7-6-0 (53.8%)	5-5-0 (50%)	9-6-1 (60%)	2-4-0 (33.3%)	3-6-0 (33.3%)