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Bucks @ Hornets [ +11.5 / 219 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

February 29, 2024
Hornets | 21-61 (25.6%)
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Hornets (+11.5) a 49.5-60.5% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 219 around 4.5-2.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Hornets have a 60.8% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 4.5% chance of going over the total.

Bucks Situational Notes

Hornets Situational Notes

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/1	CHI	MIL -4 CHI +4	221.5	MIL	-	-	-
2/29	CHA	MIL -11.5 CHA +11.5	219	MIL	-	-	-
2/27	MIL [ 123 ]	MIL -14.5 CHA +14.5	220.5	CHA [ 85 ]	+38	+23.5	-12.5
2/25	PHI [ 98 ]	MIL -4.5 PHI +4.5	235	MIL [ 119 ]	+21	+16.5	-18
2/23	MIN [ 107 ]	MIL +4 MIN -4	225.5	MIL [ 112 ]	+5	+9	-6.5
2/15	MEM [ 113 ]	MIL -14 MEM +14	223.5	MIL [ 110 ]	-3	-17	-0.5
2/13	MIL [ 97 ]	MIL -8.5 MIA +8.5	222.5	MIA [ 123 ]	-26	-34.5	-2.5
2/12	MIL [ 112 ]	MIL +1.5 DEN -1.5	231.5	DEN [ 95 ]	+17	+18.5	-24.5
2/9	MIL [ 120 ]	MIL -16.5 CHA +16.5	227.5	CHA [ 84 ]	+36	+19.5	-23.5
2/8	MIL [ 105 ]	MIL -1 MIN +1	228	MIN [ 129 ]	-24	-25	+6

Hornets Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/1	PHI	CHA +11.5 PHI -11.5	213.5	CHA	-	-	-
2/29	CHA	CHA +11.5 MIL -11.5	219	MIL	-	-	-
2/27	MIL [ 123 ]	CHA +14.5 MIL -14.5	220.5	CHA [ 85 ]	-38	-23.5	-12.5
2/25	POR [ 80 ]	CHA +3 POR -3	214	CHA [ 93 ]	+13	+16	-41
2/23	GSW [ 97 ]	CHA +13 GSW -13	228.5	CHA [ 84 ]	-13	0	-47.5
2/22	UTA [ 107 ]	CHA +10 UTA -10	230.5	CHA [ 115 ]	+8	+18	-8.5
2/14	CHA [ 122 ]	CHA +7 ATL -7	238	ATL [ 99 ]	+23	+30	-17
2/12	CHA [ 111 ]	CHA +10.5 IND -10.5	238.5	IND [ 102 ]	+9	+19.5	-25.5
2/10	CHA [ 115 ]	CHA +5.5 MEM -5.5	215	MEM [ 106 ]	+9	+14.5	+6
2/9	MIL [ 120 ]	CHA +16.5 MIL -16.5	227.5	CHA [ 84 ]	-36	-19.5	-23.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
2/29	CHA	CHA +11.5 MIL -11.5	219	MIL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/27	MIL [ 123 ]	CHA +14.5 MIL -14.5	220.5	CHA [ 85 ]	-38	-23.5	-12.5	112.9	90.3	130.7	-40.4	208
2/9	MIL [ 120 ]	CHA +16.5 MIL -16.5	227.5	CHA [ 84 ]	-36	-19.5	-23.5	114.7	87.8	125.5	-37.6	204
11/17	CHA [ 99 ]	CHA +8 MIL -8	243	MIL [ 130 ]	-31	-23	-14	122.9	96.6	126.9	-30.3	229
1/31	MIL [ 124 ]	CHA +11.5 MIL -11.5	244.5	CHA [ 115 ]	-9	+2.5	-5.5	133.8	103.2	111.2	-8.1	239
1/6	MIL [ 109 ]	CHA +10 MIL -10	231.5	CHA [ 138 ]	+29	+39	+15.5	118.7	139.5	110.2	29.3	247
12/3	CHA [ 96 ]	CHA +2 MIL -2	220	MIL [ 105 ]	-9	-7	-19	122.8	93.8	102.6	-8.8	201

Filters

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Current matchup:

Efficiency

Bucks (last 59 games)		Hornets (last 58 games)
0.6 (7)	Win Percentage	0.26 (27)
39.66 (29)	ATS Win%	40.35 (27)
51.72 (12)	OU%	48.28 (18)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
118.36 (9)	Offensive Rating	109.3 (28)
115.75 (17)	Defensive Rating	119.81 (27)
99.89 (10)	Pace	97.27 (26)
2.05 (11)	A/TO Ratio	1.8 (22)

Four Factors

Bucks (last 59 games)		Hornets (last 58 games)
56.76 (4)	EFG%	52.93 (25)
53.85 (7)	EFG% Allowed	57.21 (29)
27 (6)	FT Rate	21.2 (30)
23.4 (6)	FT Rate Allowed	23.63 (7)
21.83 (26)	OReb%	21.14 (27)
22.83 (4)	OReb% Allowed	25.46 (23)
12.85 (6)	TO Rate	14.12 (21)
11.96 (28)	TO Rate Forced	13.97 (12)

Scoring

Bucks (last 59 games)		Hornets (last 58 games)
118.98 (6)	PPG	106.59 (29)
116.35 (18)	PPG Allowed	116.83 (19)
14.54 (29)	Pts off TO	15.24 (27)
14.96 (6)	Pts off TO Allowed	17.09 (23)
13.07 (23)	2nd Chance Pts	12.15 (27)
13.67 (13)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	14.15 (18)
12.68 (23)	Fast Break Pts	12.48 (25)
13.63 (9)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.76 (13)

Inside the Arc

Bucks (last 59 games)		Hornets (last 58 games)
38.49 (28)	Paint Attempts	42.49 (23)
44.46 (20)	Paint Attempts Allowed	43.33 (12)
61.28 (1)	Paint FG%	56.34 (20)
57.35 (14)	Paint FG% Allowed	60.62 (29)
11.95 (4)	Mid-Range Attempts	10.5 (12)
12.12 (30)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	8.21 (1)
0.45 (6)	Mid-Range FG%	0.38 (23)
0.42 (19)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (16)

Three Point Shooting

Bucks (last 59 games)		Hornets (last 58 games)
10.13 (6)	Corner 3 Attempts	7.83 (26)
7.85 (7)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	9.45 (21)
41.16 (7)	Corner 3 FG%	36.14 (28)
36.8 (6)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	40 (17)
27.82 (7)	ATB3 Attempts	25.91 (15)
27.28 (23)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	26.59 (19)
35.99 (16)	ATB3 FG%	35.62 (18)
35.54 (10)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	37.06 (25)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	36-21-1	22-8-0	1-0-0	11-10-0	2-3-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	38-21	23-7	1-0	13-9	1-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Hornets 1h	13-43-2	1-3-0	6-19-0	0-0-0	6-21-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	15-43	2-2	6-19	0-0	7-22	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	26-27-5	18-9-3	1-0-0	4-15-2	3-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	23-35-1	11-18-1	1-0-0	9-13-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets 1h	26-31-1	1-3-0	12-12-1	0-0-0	13-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	23-35-0	0-4-0	13-12-0	0-0-0	10-19-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	22-36-0	12-18-0	0-1-0	9-12-0	1-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	31-27-1	18-12-0	0-1-0	12-9-1	1-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets 1h	17-40-1	1-3-0	7-17-1	0-0-0	9-20-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	28-30-0	2-2-0	13-12-0	0-0-0	13-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	23-35-0	14-16-0	1-0-0	8-13-0	0-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	29-30-0	17-13-0	0-1-0	10-12-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets 1h	18-38-2	1-3-0	9-16-0	0-0-0	8-19-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	27-30-1	1-3-0	12-12-1	0-0-0	14-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	26-31-1	12-17-1	0-1-0	12-9-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	33-24-2	19-11-0	0-1-0	13-7-2	1-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets 1h	23-35-0	1-3-0	10-15-0	0-0-0	12-17-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	31-27-0	2-2-0	14-11-0	0-0-0	15-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Hornets	10-12-1 (45.5%)	5-8-0 (38.5%)	8-9-0 (47.1%)	0-2-0 (0%)	0-3-0 (0%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	2-3-0 (40%)	3-3-0 (50%)	11-11-0 (50%)	3-8-1 (27.3%)	4-10-0 (28.6%)