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Hornets @ Bucks [ -14.5 / 220.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

February 27, 2024
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)
Hornets | 21-61 (25.6%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (-14.5) a 44.7-23% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 220.5 around 4.5-2.5% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 53.5% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 4.5% chance of going over the total.

Hornets Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Hornets Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/29	CHA	CHA +11.5 MIL -11.5	219	MIL	-	-	-
2/27	MIL	CHA +14.5 MIL -14.5	220.5	CHA	-	-	-
2/25	POR [ 80 ]	CHA +3 POR -3	214	CHA [ 93 ]	+13	+16	-41
2/23	GSW [ 97 ]	CHA +13 GSW -13	228.5	CHA [ 84 ]	-13	0	-47.5
2/22	UTA [ 107 ]	CHA +10 UTA -10	230.5	CHA [ 115 ]	+8	+18	-8.5
2/14	CHA [ 122 ]	CHA +7 ATL -7	238	ATL [ 99 ]	+23	+30	-17
2/12	CHA [ 111 ]	CHA +10.5 IND -10.5	238.5	IND [ 102 ]	+9	+19.5	-25.5
2/10	CHA [ 115 ]	CHA +5.5 MEM -5.5	215	MEM [ 106 ]	+9	+14.5	+6
2/9	MIL [ 120 ]	CHA +16.5 MIL -16.5	227.5	CHA [ 84 ]	-36	-19.5	-23.5
2/7	CHA [ 117 ]	CHA +7 TOR -7	225.5	TOR [ 123 ]	-6	+1	+14.5

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/29	CHA	MIL -11.5 CHA +11.5	219	MIL	-	-	-
2/27	MIL	MIL -14.5 CHA +14.5	220.5	CHA	-	-	-
2/25	PHI [ 98 ]	MIL -4.5 PHI +4.5	235	MIL [ 119 ]	+21	+16.5	-18
2/23	MIN [ 107 ]	MIL +4 MIN -4	225.5	MIL [ 112 ]	+5	+9	-6.5
2/15	MEM [ 113 ]	MIL -14 MEM +14	223.5	MIL [ 110 ]	-3	-17	-0.5
2/13	MIL [ 97 ]	MIL -8.5 MIA +8.5	222.5	MIA [ 123 ]	-26	-34.5	-2.5
2/12	MIL [ 112 ]	MIL +1.5 DEN -1.5	231.5	DEN [ 95 ]	+17	+18.5	-24.5
2/9	MIL [ 120 ]	MIL -16.5 CHA +16.5	227.5	CHA [ 84 ]	+36	+19.5	-23.5
2/8	MIL [ 105 ]	MIL -1 MIN +1	228	MIN [ 129 ]	-24	-25	+6
2/6	PHO [ 114 ]	MIL +3.5 PHO -3.5	243	MIL [ 106 ]	-8	-4.5	-23

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
2/29	CHA	MIL -11.5 CHA +11.5	219	MIL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/27	MIL	MIL -14.5 CHA +14.5	220.5	CHA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/9	MIL [ 120 ]	MIL -16.5 CHA +16.5	227.5	CHA [ 84 ]	+36	+19.5	-23.5	114.7	125.5	87.8	37.6	204
11/17	CHA [ 99 ]	MIL -8 CHA +8	243	MIL [ 130 ]	+31	+23	-14	122.9	126.9	96.6	30.3	229
1/31	MIL [ 124 ]	MIL -11.5 CHA +11.5	244.5	CHA [ 115 ]	+9	-2.5	-5.5	133.8	111.2	103.2	8.1	239
1/6	MIL [ 109 ]	MIL -10 CHA +10	231.5	CHA [ 138 ]	-29	-39	+15.5	118.7	110.2	139.5	-29.3	247
12/3	CHA [ 96 ]	MIL -2 CHA +2	220	MIL [ 105 ]	+9	+7	-19	122.8	102.6	93.8	8.8	201

Filters

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Current matchup:

Efficiency

Hornets (last 57 games)		Bucks (last 58 games)
0.26 (27)	Win Percentage	0.6 (8)
41.07 (27)	ATS Win%	38.6 (29)
49.12 (18)	OU%	52.63 (9)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
109.3 (28)	Offensive Rating	118.36 (10)
119.81 (27)	Defensive Rating	115.75 (17)
97.27 (26)	Pace	99.89 (9)
1.8 (22)	A/TO Ratio	2.05 (10)

Four Factors

Hornets (last 57 games)		Bucks (last 58 games)
52.93 (26)	EFG%	56.76 (4)
57.21 (29)	EFG% Allowed	53.85 (8)
21.2 (30)	FT Rate	27 (6)
23.63 (7)	FT Rate Allowed	23.4 (6)
21.14 (27)	OReb%	21.83 (25)
25.46 (23)	OReb% Allowed	22.83 (6)
14.12 (21)	TO Rate	12.85 (7)
13.97 (13)	TO Rate Forced	11.96 (29)

Scoring

Hornets (last 57 games)		Bucks (last 58 games)
106.59 (29)	PPG	118.98 (6)
116.83 (19)	PPG Allowed	116.35 (17)
15.24 (26)	Pts off TO	14.54 (29)
17.09 (23)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.96 (7)
12.15 (27)	2nd Chance Pts	13.07 (23)
14.15 (18)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (13)
12.48 (27)	Fast Break Pts	12.68 (23)
13.76 (12)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.63 (9)

Inside the Arc

Hornets (last 57 games)		Bucks (last 58 games)
42.49 (23)	Paint Attempts	38.49 (28)
43.33 (12)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.46 (19)
56.34 (20)	Paint FG%	61.28 (1)
60.62 (29)	Paint FG% Allowed	57.35 (15)
10.5 (13)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.95 (4)
8.21 (1)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.12 (30)
0.38 (25)	Mid-Range FG%	0.45 (6)
0.42 (17)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (18)

Three Point Shooting

Hornets (last 57 games)		Bucks (last 58 games)
7.83 (26)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.13 (6)
9.45 (21)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.85 (7)
36.14 (27)	Corner 3 FG%	41.16 (7)
40 (17)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.8 (5)
25.91 (15)	ATB3 Attempts	27.82 (7)
26.59 (19)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.28 (23)
35.62 (18)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (15)
37.06 (24)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.54 (11)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	13-42-2	1-3-0	6-19-0	0-0-0	6-20-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	15-42	2-2	6-19	0-0	7-21	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bucks 1h	35-21-1	21-8-0	1-0-0	11-10-0	2-3-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	37-21	22-7	1-0	13-9	1-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	26-30-1	1-3-0	12-12-1	0-0-0	13-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	23-34-0	0-4-0	13-12-0	0-0-0	10-18-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	25-27-5	17-9-3	1-0-0	4-15-2	3-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	22-35-1	10-18-1	1-0-0	9-13-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	17-39-1	1-3-0	7-17-1	0-0-0	9-19-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	28-29-0	2-2-0	13-12-0	0-0-0	13-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	22-35-0	12-17-0	0-1-0	9-12-0	1-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	31-26-1	18-11-0	0-1-0	12-9-1	1-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	18-37-2	1-3-0	9-16-0	0-0-0	8-18-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	27-29-1	1-3-0	12-12-1	0-0-0	14-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	23-34-0	14-15-0	1-0-0	8-13-0	0-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	28-30-0	16-13-0	0-1-0	10-12-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Hornets 1h	23-34-0	1-3-0	10-15-0	0-0-0	12-16-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Hornets	30-27-0	2-2-0	14-11-0	0-0-0	14-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	26-30-1	12-16-1	0-1-0	12-9-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	33-23-2	19-10-0	0-1-0	13-7-2	1-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	2-3-0 (40%)	3-3-0 (50%)	11-11-0 (50%)	3-8-1 (27.3%)	3-10-0 (23.1%)
Hornets	10-11-1 (47.6%)	5-8-0 (38.5%)	8-9-0 (47.1%)	0-2-0 (0%)	0-3-0 (0%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)