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2/25 | 2/27BKN@MEM MIA@SAC TOR@IND NYK@DET

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Nets @ Grizzlies [ +2 / 214.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

February 26, 2024
Grizzlies | 27-55 (32.9%)
Nets | 32-50 (39%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Grizzlies (+2) a 50.8-79.4% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 214.5 around 3.8-3.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Grizzlies have a 59.3% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 3.5% chance of going over the total.

Nets Situational Notes

Grizzlies Situational Notes

Nets Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/27	ORL	BKN +9.5 ORL -9.5	213.5	BKN	-	-	-
2/26	MEM	BKN -2 MEM +2	214.5	BKN	-	-	-
2/24	MIN [ 101 ]	BKN +8.5 MIN -8.5	219	BKN [ 86 ]	-15	-6.5	-32
2/22	TOR [ 121 ]	BKN +2 TOR -2	231.5	BKN [ 93 ]	-28	-26	-17.5
2/14	BOS [ 136 ]	BKN +13 BOS -13	227	BKN [ 86 ]	-50	-37	-5
2/13	BKN [ 110 ]	BKN +8.5 BOS -8.5	228	BOS [ 118 ]	-8	+0.5	0
2/10	BKN [ 123 ]	BKN -5.5 SAS +5.5	232	SAS [ 103 ]	+20	+14.5	-6
2/8	BKN [ 95 ]	BKN +6 CLE -6	225.5	CLE [ 118 ]	-23	-17	-12.5
2/6	BKN [ 107 ]	BKN +3.5 DAL -3.5	236.5	DAL [ 119 ]	-12	-8.5	-10.5
2/5	BKN [ 98 ]	BKN -1.5 GSW +1.5	237.5	GSW [ 109 ]	-11	-12.5	-30.5

Grizzlies Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/28	MIN	MEM +12 MIN -12	211.5	MEM	-	-	-
2/26	MEM	MEM +2 BKN -2	214.5	BKN	-	-	-
2/23	MEM [ 95 ]	MEM +9 LAC -9	222.5	LAC [ 101 ]	-6	+3	-26.5
2/15	MEM [ 113 ]	MEM +14 MIL -14	223.5	MIL [ 110 ]	+3	+17	-0.5
2/14	MEM [ 121 ]	MEM +3 HOU -3	219.5	HOU [ 113 ]	+8	+11	+14.5
2/12	MEM [ 87 ]	MEM +9 NOP -9	222	NOP [ 96 ]	-9	0	-39
2/10	CHA [ 115 ]	MEM -5.5 CHA +5.5	215	MEM [ 106 ]	-9	-14.5	+6
2/8	MEM [ 110 ]	MEM +5.5 CHI -5.5	216	CHI [ 118 ]	-8	-2.5	+12
2/6	NYK [ 123 ]	MEM +13.5 NYK -13.5	212.5	MEM [ 113 ]	-10	+3.5	+23.5
2/4	BOS [ 131 ]	MEM +18 BOS -18	219	MEM [ 91 ]	-40	-22	+3

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/4	BKN	MEM +10 BKN -10	206.5	MEM	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/26	MEM	MEM +2 BKN -2	214.5	BKN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11/20	BKN [ 127 ]	MEM +7.5 BKN -7.5	224	MEM [ 115 ]	-12	-4.5	+18	125.9	109.6	121.1	-11.4	242
10/24	MEM [ 134 ]	MEM -1.5 BKN +1.5	235.5	BKN [ 124 ]	+10	+8.5	+22.5	118.1	136.1	125.9	10.2	258

Filters

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Efficiency

Nets (last 56 games)		Grizzlies (last 57 games)
0.39 (23)	Win Percentage	0.33 (25)
48.08 (20)	ATS Win%	46.43 (23)
43.64 (26)	OU%	42.11 (28)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
113.16 (24)	Offensive Rating	107.22 (30)
116.12 (17)	Defensive Rating	114.32 (11)
96.92 (27)	Pace	98.19 (19)
1.95 (20)	A/TO Ratio	1.64 (29)

Four Factors

Nets (last 56 games)		Grizzlies (last 57 games)
53.08 (25)	EFG%	50.91 (29)
54.35 (13)	EFG% Allowed	55.13 (18)
23.42 (25)	FT Rate	23.82 (21)
23.93 (8)	FT Rate Allowed	25.04 (14)
25.17 (10)	OReb%	23.82 (19)
23.96 (13)	OReb% Allowed	25.17 (21)
13.45 (17)	TO Rate	15.27 (29)
12.94 (24)	TO Rate Forced	15.31 (2)

Scoring

Nets (last 56 games)		Grizzlies (last 57 games)
110.37 (27)	PPG	105.82 (30)
113.26 (13)	PPG Allowed	112.82 (9)
14.93 (28)	Pts off TO	17.37 (8)
15.4 (8)	Pts off TO Allowed	18.46 (27)
14.34 (11)	2nd Chance Pts	13.44 (20)
13.98 (17)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.98 (16)
13.23 (21)	Fast Break Pts	11.61 (30)
15.62 (24)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	15.07 (22)

Inside the Arc

Nets (last 56 games)		Grizzlies (last 57 games)
43.09 (23)	Paint Attempts	44.09 (20)
43.24 (11)	Paint Attempts Allowed	42.71 (7)
55.19 (25)	Paint FG%	52.2 (29)
55.87 (7)	Paint FG% Allowed	56.37 (9)
9.32 (20)	Mid-Range Attempts	6.29 (30)
10.28 (18)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	8.79 (3)
0.39 (23)	Mid-Range FG%	0.36 (28)
0.43 (23)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.43 (20)

Three Point Shooting

Nets (last 56 games)		Grizzlies (last 57 games)
10.02 (5)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.72 (8)
7.9 (6)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.93 (7)
41.12 (8)	Corner 3 FG%	34.88 (30)
41.82 (27)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	41.23 (23)
26.4 (12)	ATB3 Attempts	27.8 (6)
26.87 (22)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.34 (25)
34.64 (25)	ATB3 FG%	34.78 (24)
36.09 (17)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	37.02 (24)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nets 1h	27-28-1	12-2-0	4-11-1	4-1-0	7-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nets	21-35	11-3	2-14	2-3	6-15	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Grizzlies 1h	21-35-0	3-5-0	8-11-0	1-5-0	9-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	20-37	3-5	4-16	3-3	10-13	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nets 1h	27-28-1	10-4-0	6-9-1	3-2-0	8-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nets	25-27-4	10-4-0	6-7-3	1-4-0	8-12-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	24-32-0	3-5-0	10-9-0	1-5-0	10-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	26-30-1	2-6-0	8-11-1	3-3-0	13-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nets 1h	22-33-1	7-7-0	7-8-1	1-4-0	7-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nets	24-31-1	7-7-0	7-8-1	2-3-0	8-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	18-36-2	3-5-0	5-13-1	2-4-0	8-14-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	25-32-0	2-6-0	7-13-0	3-3-0	13-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nets 1h	24-32-0	8-6-0	7-9-0	2-3-0	7-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nets	30-26-0	9-5-0	8-8-0	2-3-0	11-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	18-37-1	3-5-0	9-9-1	1-5-0	5-18-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	23-34-0	1-7-0	7-13-0	4-2-0	11-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nets 1h	19-37-0	2-12-0	10-6-0	0-5-0	7-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nets	28-28-0	4-10-0	9-7-0	3-2-0	12-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	26-30-0	5-3-0	8-11-0	5-1-0	8-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	24-32-1	4-4-0	7-13-0	2-3-1	11-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Grizzlies	4-4-0 (50%)	10-7-1 (58.8%)	6-7-0 (46.2%)	3-8-0 (27.3%)	3-3-0 (50%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-1-0 (0%)
Nets	0-3-2 (0%)	3-3-0 (50%)	10-11-1 (47.6%)	4-3-1 (57.1%)	4-5-0 (44.4%)	4-2-0 (66.7%)	0-0-0 (-)