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Bulls @ Cavaliers [ -9 / 224.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

February 14, 2024
Cavaliers | 53-41 (56.4%)
Bulls | 40-44 (47.6%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Cavaliers (-9) a 46.6-64.4% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 224.5 around 3.3-4.2% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Cavaliers have a 52.7% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 3.9% chance of going over the total.

Bulls Situational Notes

Cavaliers Situational Notes

Bulls Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/22	CHI	CHI +8 BOS -8	225.5	BOS	-	-	-
2/14	CLE	CHI +9 CLE -9	224.5	CHI	-	-	-
2/12	ATL [ 126 ]	CHI +4 ATL -4	238	CHI [ 136 ]	+10	+14	+24
2/10	ORL [ 114 ]	CHI +5.5 ORL -5.5	218	CHI [ 108 ]	-6	-0.5	+4
2/8	MEM [ 110 ]	CHI -5.5 MEM +5.5	216	CHI [ 118 ]	+8	+2.5	+12
2/6	CHI [ 129 ]	CHI +5.5 MIN -5.5	216	MIN [ 123 ]	+6	+11.5	+36
2/3	CHI [ 115 ]	CHI -2 SAC +2	229.5	SAC [ 123 ]	-8	-10	+8.5
1/31	CHA [ 110 ]	CHI -4 CHA +4	218	CHI [ 117 ]	+7	+3	+9
1/30	CHI [ 107 ]	CHI -7 TOR +7	227	TOR [ 118 ]	-11	-18	-2
1/28	POR [ 96 ]	CHI -6.5 POR +6.5	219.5	CHI [ 104 ]	+8	+1.5	-19.5

Cavaliers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/22	CLE	CLE -6.5 ORL +6.5	215.5	ORL	-	-	-
2/14	CLE	CLE -9 CHI +9	224.5	CHI	-	-	-
2/12	CLE [ 121 ]	CLE -10 PHI +10	230	PHI [ 123 ]	-2	-12	+14
2/10	TOR [ 95 ]	CLE -9 TOR +9	230	CLE [ 119 ]	+24	+15	-16
2/8	BKN [ 95 ]	CLE -6 BKN +6	225.5	CLE [ 118 ]	+23	+17	-12.5
2/7	WAS [ 106 ]	CLE -11.5 WAS +11.5	234	CLE [ 114 ]	+8	-3.5	-14
2/5	CLE [ 136 ]	CLE -5 SAC +5	235	SAC [ 110 ]	+26	+21	+11
2/3	SAS [ 101 ]	CLE -10.5 SAS +10.5	229	CLE [ 117 ]	+16	+5.5	-11
2/1	MEM [ 101 ]	CLE -8.5 MEM +8.5	214	CLE [ 108 ]	+7	-1.5	-5
1/31	CLE [ 128 ]	CLE -13 DET +13	229.5	DET [ 121 ]	+7	-6	+19.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
2/28	CHI	CLE -5 CHI +5	216.5	CLE	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/14	CLE	CLE -9 CHI +9	224.5	CHI	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1/15	CLE [ 109 ]	CLE -4.5 CHI +4.5	222.5	CHI [ 91 ]	+18	+13.5	-22.5	116.8	112	93.5	18.5	200
12/23	CHI [ 95 ]	CLE +5.5 CHI -5.5	215	CLE [ 109 ]	+14	+19.5	-11	112.2	116.6	101.6	15	204
2/11	CLE [ 97 ]	CLE -6.5 CHI +6.5	220.5	CHI [ 89 ]	+8	+1.5	-34.5	114.9	101.3	93	8.4	186
1/2	CLE [ 145 ]	CLE -4 CHI +4	225	CHI [ 134 ]	+11	+7	+54	117.1	134.6	124.4	10.2	252.7
12/31	CHI [ 102 ]	CLE -1 CHI +1	223.5	CLE [ 103 ]	+1	0	-18.5	116.4	106.2	105.2	1	205
10/22	CHI [ 96 ]	CLE -1.5 CHI +1.5	220.5	CLE [ 128 ]	+32	+30.5	+3.5	116.3	132	99	33	224

Filters

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Current matchup:

Efficiency

Bulls (last 54 games)		Cavaliers (last 52 games)
0.48 (20)	Win Percentage	0.59 (11)
54.72 (10)	ATS Win%	56 (7)
57.41 (5)	OU%	48.08 (19)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
114.85 (19)	Offensive Rating	115.21 (18)
116.32 (16)	Defensive Rating	112.74 (4)
96.28 (30)	Pace	97.15 (26)
2.04 (13)	A/TO Ratio	2.07 (10)

Four Factors

Bulls (last 54 games)		Cavaliers (last 52 games)
53.39 (24)	EFG%	55.67 (11)
55.64 (20)	EFG% Allowed	53.48 (5)
23.59 (22)	FT Rate	23.38 (23)
25.09 (15)	FT Rate Allowed	24.02 (7)
25.13 (13)	OReb%	23.19 (21)
23.65 (12)	OReb% Allowed	23.09 (8)
12.53 (4)	TO Rate	13.87 (20)
14.31 (7)	TO Rate Forced	13.91 (12)

Scoring

Bulls (last 54 games)		Cavaliers (last 52 games)
112.27 (24)	PPG	112.63 (23)
113.71 (13)	PPG Allowed	110.22 (3)
17.17 (10)	Pts off TO	16.6 (12)
15.23 (9)	Pts off TO Allowed	17.37 (22)
13.63 (16)	2nd Chance Pts	13.59 (18)
13.82 (14)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	12.87 (6)
12.45 (27)	Fast Break Pts	14.78 (11)
13.27 (6)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	14.34 (18)

Inside the Arc

Bulls (last 54 games)		Cavaliers (last 52 games)
42.85 (23)	Paint Attempts	43.45 (20)
38.5 (1)	Paint Attempts Allowed	42.2 (6)
56.46 (20)	Paint FG%	57.65 (17)
59.01 (21)	Paint FG% Allowed	55.14 (5)
14.56 (1)	Mid-Range Attempts	6.94 (28)
9 (4)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	11.5 (28)
0.44 (10)	Mid-Range FG%	0.46 (3)
0.42 (16)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.41 (10)

Three Point Shooting

Bulls (last 54 games)		Cavaliers (last 52 games)
9.21 (12)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.18 (13)
11.12 (29)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	9.54 (22)
38.54 (20)	Corner 3 FG%	37.05 (26)
41.56 (23)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	39.39 (14)
22.74 (27)	ATB3 Attempts	27.46 (8)
28.18 (27)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	24.06 (5)
34.91 (24)	ATB3 FG%	36.77 (10)
35.31 (9)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	36.54 (17)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bulls 1h	23-30-1	11-6-0	1-8-1	4-4-0	7-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	26-28	9-8	6-4	7-1	4-15	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Cavaliers 1h	32-18-2	16-4-0	3-4-0	8-4-2	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	35-17	16-4	2-5	11-3	6-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bulls 1h	26-26-2	11-6-0	2-7-1	4-4-0	9-9-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	28-25-1	8-9-0	6-3-1	6-2-0	8-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	28-21-3	12-7-1	3-4-0	7-6-1	6-4-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	28-22-2	12-7-1	2-5-0	7-6-1	7-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bulls 1h	22-30-2	7-9-1	5-5-0	4-4-0	6-12-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	31-23-0	7-10-0	7-3-0	6-2-0	11-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	25-24-3	9-9-2	4-3-0	5-8-1	7-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	25-27-0	10-10-0	5-2-0	5-9-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bulls 1h	18-34-2	5-12-0	3-7-0	3-5-0	7-10-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	27-27-0	5-12-0	6-4-0	6-2-0	10-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	26-25-1	14-5-1	2-5-0	5-9-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	25-26-1	11-9-0	3-4-0	5-8-1	6-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bulls 1h	24-30-0	5-12-0	5-5-0	5-3-0	9-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	33-20-1	9-8-0	6-4-0	6-2-0	12-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	20-31-1	6-13-1	5-2-0	6-8-0	3-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	20-32-0	8-12-0	4-3-0	4-10-0	4-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Cavaliers	1-0-0 (100%)	1-0-1 (100%)	7-6-0 (53.8%)	5-5-0 (50%)	9-3-1 (75%)	2-3-0 (40%)	3-5-0 (37.5%)
Bulls	2-2-0 (50%)	2-3-0 (40%)	9-7-0 (56.3%)	3-4-1 (42.9%)	11-7-0 (61.1%)	2-1-0 (66.7%)	0-0-0 (-)