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2/14 | 2/22MIL@MEM GSW@UTA MIN@POR

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Bucks @ Grizzlies [ +14 / 223.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

February 15, 2024
Grizzlies | 27-55 (32.9%)
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Grizzlies (+14) a 68.6-61.9% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 223.5 around 3.6-2.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Grizzlies have a 71.7% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 3.4% chance of going over the total.

Bucks Situational Notes

Grizzlies Situational Notes

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/23	MIN	MIL +4 MIN -4	225.5	MIL	-	-	-
2/15	MEM	MIL -14 MEM +14	223.5	MIL	-	-	-
2/13	MIL [ 97 ]	MIL -8.5 MIA +8.5	222.5	MIA [ 123 ]	-26	-34.5	-2.5
2/12	MIL [ 112 ]	MIL +1.5 DEN -1.5	231.5	DEN [ 95 ]	+17	+18.5	-24.5
2/9	MIL [ 120 ]	MIL -16.5 CHA +16.5	227.5	CHA [ 84 ]	+36	+19.5	-23.5
2/8	MIL [ 105 ]	MIL -1 MIN +1	228	MIN [ 129 ]	-24	-25	+6
2/6	PHO [ 114 ]	MIL +3.5 PHO -3.5	243	MIL [ 106 ]	-8	-4.5	-23
2/4	UTA [ 123 ]	MIL +3 UTA -3	247	MIL [ 108 ]	-15	-12	-16
2/3	DAL [ 117 ]	MIL -4.5 DAL +4.5	246	MIL [ 129 ]	+12	+7.5	0
1/31	POR [ 119 ]	MIL -9.5 POR +9.5	238	MIL [ 116 ]	-3	-12.5	-3

Grizzlies Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/23	MEM	MEM +9 LAC -9	222.5	LAC	-	-	-
2/15	MEM	MEM +14 MIL -14	223.5	MIL	-	-	-
2/14	MEM [ 121 ]	MEM +3 HOU -3	219.5	HOU [ 113 ]	+8	+11	+14.5
2/12	MEM [ 87 ]	MEM +9 NOP -9	222	NOP [ 96 ]	-9	0	-39
2/10	CHA [ 115 ]	MEM -5.5 CHA +5.5	215	MEM [ 106 ]	-9	-14.5	+6
2/8	MEM [ 110 ]	MEM +5.5 CHI -5.5	216	CHI [ 118 ]	-8	-2.5	+12
2/6	NYK [ 123 ]	MEM +13.5 NYK -13.5	212.5	MEM [ 113 ]	-10	+3.5	+23.5
2/4	BOS [ 131 ]	MEM +18 BOS -18	219	MEM [ 91 ]	-40	-22	+3
2/2	MEM [ 101 ]	MEM +8.5 GSW -8.5	224.5	GSW [ 121 ]	-20	-11.5	-2.5
2/1	MEM [ 101 ]	MEM +8.5 CLE -8.5	214	CLE [ 108 ]	-7	+1.5	-5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
4/3	MIL	MEM +13.5 MIL -13.5	222	MEM	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/15	MEM	MEM +14 MIL -14	223.5	MIL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4/7	MIL [ 114 ]	MEM -9 MIL +9	231	MEM [ 137 ]	+23	+14	+20	120.4	136.6	113.6	22.9	251
12/15	MEM [ 142 ]	MEM -3 MIL +3	226.5	MIL [ 101 ]	+41	+38	+16.5	122.1	139.6	99.3	40.3	243

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Efficiency

Bucks (last 55 games)		Grizzlies (last 55 games)
0.6 (10)	Win Percentage	0.33 (25)
37.04 (29)	ATS Win%	44.44 (25)
55.56 (8)	OU%	43.64 (28)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
118.36 (10)	Offensive Rating	107.22 (30)
115.75 (17)	Defensive Rating	114.32 (10)
99.89 (10)	Pace	98.19 (20)
2.05 (10)	A/TO Ratio	1.64 (29)

Four Factors

Bucks (last 55 games)		Grizzlies (last 55 games)
56.76 (6)	EFG%	50.91 (29)
53.85 (9)	EFG% Allowed	55.13 (17)
27 (7)	FT Rate	23.82 (22)
23.4 (5)	FT Rate Allowed	25.04 (15)
21.83 (27)	OReb%	23.82 (19)
22.83 (5)	OReb% Allowed	25.17 (21)
12.85 (7)	TO Rate	15.27 (28)
11.96 (28)	TO Rate Forced	15.31 (2)

Scoring

Bucks (last 55 games)		Grizzlies (last 55 games)
118.98 (6)	PPG	105.82 (30)
116.35 (17)	PPG Allowed	112.82 (11)
14.54 (29)	Pts off TO	17.37 (6)
14.96 (7)	Pts off TO Allowed	18.46 (27)
13.07 (21)	2nd Chance Pts	13.44 (19)
13.67 (14)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.98 (17)
12.68 (24)	Fast Break Pts	11.61 (30)
13.63 (7)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	15.07 (24)

Inside the Arc

Bucks (last 55 games)		Grizzlies (last 55 games)
38.49 (28)	Paint Attempts	44.09 (19)
44.46 (19)	Paint Attempts Allowed	42.71 (9)
61.28 (1)	Paint FG%	52.2 (29)
57.35 (15)	Paint FG% Allowed	56.37 (9)
11.95 (4)	Mid-Range Attempts	6.29 (30)
12.12 (30)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	8.79 (3)
0.45 (6)	Mid-Range FG%	0.36 (28)
0.42 (16)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.43 (21)

Three Point Shooting

Bucks (last 55 games)		Grizzlies (last 55 games)
10.13 (5)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.72 (8)
7.85 (5)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.93 (7)
41.16 (9)	Corner 3 FG%	34.88 (29)
36.8 (8)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	41.23 (22)
27.82 (8)	ATB3 Attempts	27.8 (9)
27.28 (23)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.34 (24)
35.99 (15)	ATB3 FG%	34.78 (24)
35.54 (12)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	37.02 (22)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	34-20-1	21-8-0	1-0-0	10-10-0	2-2-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	35-20	22-7	1-0	12-8	0-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Grizzlies 1h	20-35-0	3-5-0	7-11-0	1-5-0	9-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	19-36	3-5	3-15	3-3	10-13	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	24-26-5	17-9-3	1-0-0	3-15-2	3-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	20-34-1	10-18-1	1-0-0	8-12-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	23-32-0	3-5-0	9-9-0	1-5-0	10-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	24-30-1	2-6-0	6-11-1	3-3-0	13-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	22-33-0	12-17-0	0-1-0	9-11-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	30-24-1	18-11-0	0-1-0	11-8-1	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	18-35-2	3-5-0	5-12-1	2-4-0	8-14-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	24-31-0	2-6-0	6-12-0	3-3-0	13-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	22-33-0	14-15-0	1-0-0	7-13-0	0-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	27-28-0	16-13-0	0-1-0	10-10-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	17-37-1	3-5-0	8-9-1	1-5-0	5-18-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	22-33-0	1-7-0	6-12-0	4-2-0	11-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Bucks 1h	26-28-1	12-16-1	0-1-0	12-8-0	2-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	32-21-2	19-10-0	0-1-0	12-6-2	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies 1h	26-29-0	5-3-0	8-10-0	5-1-0	8-15-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Grizzlies	24-30-1	4-4-0	7-11-0	2-3-1	11-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Grizzlies	3-4-0 (42.9%)	9-7-1 (56.3%)	6-7-0 (46.2%)	3-8-0 (27.3%)	3-3-0 (50%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-1-0 (0%)
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	1-3-0 (25%)	3-3-0 (50%)	10-11-0 (47.6%)	3-8-1 (27.3%)	3-9-0 (25%)