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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (-8.5) a 41.2-28.4% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 222.5 around 4.5-3.4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 49.5% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 4% chance of going over the total.


Heat Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Heat Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
2/14PHIMIA +4.5
PHI -4.5
223.5MIA---
2/13MILMIA +8.5
MIL -8.5
222.5MIA---
2/11MIA [ 106 ]MIA +5.5
BOS -5.5
226BOS [ 110 ]-4+1.5-10
2/7MIA [ 116 ]MIA -8
SAS +8
226SAS [ 104 ]+12+4-6
2/6MIA [ 121 ]MIA -3
ORL +3
213.5ORL [ 95 ]+26+23+2.5
2/4MIA [ 95 ]MIA +4
LAC -4
224.5LAC [ 103 ]-8-4-26.5
2/2WAS [ 102 ]MIA -8.5
WAS +8.5
227.5MIA [ 110 ]+8-0.5-15.5
1/31MIA [ 115 ]MIA -1.5
SAC +1.5
230SAC [ 106 ]+9+7.5-9
1/29MIA [ 105 ]MIA -3.5
PHO +3.5
229.5PHO [ 118 ]-13-16.5-6.5
1/27NYK [ 125 ]MIA +4.5
NYK -4.5
218MIA [ 109 ]-16-11.5+16

Bucks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
2/15MEMMIL -14
MEM +14
223.5MIL---
2/13MILMIL -8.5
MIA +8.5
222.5MIA---
2/12MIL [ 112 ]MIL +1.5
DEN -1.5
231.5DEN [ 95 ]+17+18.5-24.5
2/9MIL [ 120 ]MIL -16.5
CHA +16.5
227.5CHA [ 84 ]+36+19.5-23.5
2/8MIL [ 105 ]MIL -1
MIN +1
228MIN [ 129 ]-24-25+6
2/6PHO [ 114 ]MIL +3.5
PHO -3.5
243MIL [ 106 ]-8-4.5-23
2/4UTA [ 123 ]MIL +3
UTA -3
247MIL [ 108 ]-15-12-16
2/3DAL [ 117 ]MIL -4.5
DAL +4.5
246MIL [ 129 ]+12+7.50
1/31POR [ 119 ]MIL -9.5
POR +9.5
238MIL [ 116 ]-3-12.5-3
1/29DEN [ 113 ]MIL +4
DEN -4
238.5MIL [ 107 ]-6-2-18.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
2/13MILMIL -8.5
MIA +8.5
222.5MIA--------
11/28MIA [ 124 ]MIL -5
MIA +5
231MIL [ 131 ]+7+2+24118.5132.7125.67.1255
10/30MIL [ 122 ]MIL -8
MIA +8
226MIA [ 114 ]+80+10121.8120.2112.47.9236
4/26MIL [ 126 ]MIL -12.5
MIA +12.5
220.5MIA [ 128 ]-2-14.5+33.5125.5109.1110.9-1.7230
4/24MIA [ 119 ]MIL -7.5
MIA +7.5
218MIL [ 114 ]-5-12.5+15122.2111.9116.8-4.9233
4/22MIA [ 121 ]MIL -2
MIA +2
216.5MIL [ 99 ]-22-24+3.5116.7101.8124.5-22.6220
4/19MIL [ 138 ]MIL -5.5
MIA +5.5
216.5MIA [ 122 ]+16+10.5+43.5123.8133.8118.315.5260
4/16MIL [ 117 ]MIL -9
MIA +9
220MIA [ 130 ]-13-22+27124.2113125.6-12.6247
2/24MIL [ 128 ]MIL -5.5
MIA +5.5
223.5MIA [ 99 ]+29+23.5+3.5124.912395.127.9227
2/4MIL [ 123 ]MIL -6
MIA +6
224MIA [ 115 ]+8+2+14121.3121.7113.77.9238
1/14MIA [ 111 ]MIL +4
MIA -4
213MIL [ 95 ]-16-12-7106.7106.8124.8-18206


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h27-23-314-5-23-3-16-6-04-9-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 28-2515-60-78-45-80-00-00-00-0
Bucks 1h34-19-121-7-01-0-010-10-02-2-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 35-1922-61-012-80-50-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h28-23-211-10-04-2-16-6-07-5-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 22-28-310-10-11-6-04-7-17-5-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1h24-25-517-8-31-0-03-15-23-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 20-33-110-17-11-0-08-12-01-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h22-30-18-12-14-3-03-9-07-6-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 21-32-09-12-04-3-04-8-04-9-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1h21-33-011-17-00-1-09-11-01-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 30-23-118-10-00-1-011-8-11-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h25-26-211-8-24-3-03-9-07-6-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 26-27-011-10-04-3-04-8-07-6-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1h22-32-014-14-01-0-07-13-00-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 27-27-016-12-00-1-010-10-01-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Heat 1h20-33-08-13-02-5-04-8-06-7-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 24-28-112-9-04-2-14-8-04-9-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1h25-28-111-16-10-1-012-8-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 31-21-218-10-00-1-012-6-21-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Bucks0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-3-0 (25%)3-3-0 (50%)10-11-0 (47.6%)3-7-1 (30%)3-9-0 (25%)
Heat0-0-0 (-)2-3-1 (40%)6-6-0 (50%)6-5-1 (54.5%)5-8-1 (38.5%)3-6-0 (33.3%)0-0-0 (-)