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2/11 | 2/13DEN@MIL PHI@CLE MIN@LAC NOP@MEM CHI@ATL IND@CHA GSW@UTA WAS@DAL SAS@TOR NYK@HOU

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Nuggets @ Bucks [ +1.5 / 231.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

February 12, 2024
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)
Nuggets | 64-30 (68.1%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (+1.5) a 58.3-50.7% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 231.5 around 4.3-3.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 74.7% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 3.9% chance of going over the total.

Nuggets Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Nuggets Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/14	DEN	DEN -6 SAC +6	229.5	SAC	-	-	-
2/12	MIL	DEN -1.5 MIL +1.5	231.5	DEN	-	-	-
2/9	SAC [ 135 ]	DEN +2.5 SAC -2.5	231.5	DEN [ 106 ]	-29	-26.5	+9.5
2/8	LAL [ 106 ]	DEN -3.5 LAL +3.5	229.5	DEN [ 114 ]	+8	+4.5	-9.5
2/4	DEN [ 112 ]	DEN -14.5 POR +14.5	218	POR [ 103 ]	+9	-5.5	-3
2/2	DEN [ 120 ]	DEN -12 POR +12	220.5	POR [ 108 ]	+12	0	+7.5
1/31	OKC [ 105 ]	DEN +1 OKC -1	227	DEN [ 100 ]	-5	-4	-22
1/29	DEN [ 113 ]	DEN -4 MIL +4	238.5	MIL [ 107 ]	+6	+2	-18.5
1/27	DEN [ 111 ]	DEN -5.5 PHI +5.5	228	PHI [ 105 ]	+6	+0.5	-12
1/25	NYK [ 122 ]	DEN -2.5 NYK +2.5	222	DEN [ 84 ]	-38	-40.5	-16

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/13	MIL	MIL -8.5 MIA +8.5	222.5	MIA	-	-	-
2/12	MIL	MIL +1.5 DEN -1.5	231.5	DEN	-	-	-
2/9	MIL [ 120 ]	MIL -16.5 CHA +16.5	227.5	CHA [ 84 ]	+36	+19.5	-23.5
2/8	MIL [ 105 ]	MIL -1 MIN +1	228	MIN [ 129 ]	-24	-25	+6
2/6	PHO [ 114 ]	MIL +3.5 PHO -3.5	243	MIL [ 106 ]	-8	-4.5	-23
2/4	UTA [ 123 ]	MIL +3 UTA -3	247	MIL [ 108 ]	-15	-12	-16
2/3	DAL [ 117 ]	MIL -4.5 DAL +4.5	246	MIL [ 129 ]	+12	+7.5	0
1/31	POR [ 119 ]	MIL -9.5 POR +9.5	238	MIL [ 116 ]	-3	-12.5	-3
1/29	DEN [ 113 ]	MIL +4 DEN -4	238.5	MIL [ 107 ]	-6	-2	-18.5
1/27	MIL [ 141 ]	MIL -5 NOP +5	241	NOP [ 117 ]	+24	+19	+17

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
2/12	MIL	MIL +1.5 DEN -1.5	231.5	DEN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1/29	DEN [ 113 ]	MIL +4 DEN -4	238.5	MIL [ 107 ]	-6	-2	-18.5	117.5	109.3	115.4	-6.1	220
3/25	DEN [ 129 ]	MIL +3 DEN -3	237	MIL [ 106 ]	-23	-20	-2	124	102.6	124.9	-22.3	235
1/25	MIL [ 107 ]	MIL -12.5 DEN +12.5	227.5	DEN [ 99 ]	+8	-4.5	-21.5	126.5	101.5	93.9	7.6	206

Filters

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Efficiency

Nuggets (last 53 games)		Bucks (last 53 games)
0.7 (2)	Win Percentage	0.6 (8)
42 (26)	ATS Win%	36.54 (29)
38.46 (30)	OU%	57.69 (5)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
118.59 (9)	Offensive Rating	118.36 (11)
113.02 (6)	Defensive Rating	115.75 (17)
96.91 (27)	Pace	99.89 (9)
2.33 (1)	A/TO Ratio	2.05 (10)

Four Factors

Nuggets (last 53 games)		Bucks (last 53 games)
56.26 (10)	EFG%	56.76 (6)
52.55 (4)	EFG% Allowed	53.85 (8)
22.47 (28)	FT Rate	27 (7)
25.37 (16)	FT Rate Allowed	23.4 (5)
25.6 (8)	OReb%	21.83 (27)
24.4 (16)	OReb% Allowed	22.83 (6)
13.08 (9)	TO Rate	12.85 (7)
12.68 (24)	TO Rate Forced	11.96 (28)

Scoring

Nuggets (last 53 games)		Bucks (last 53 games)
115.07 (15)	PPG	118.98 (6)
109.67 (3)	PPG Allowed	116.35 (17)
15.52 (25)	Pts off TO	14.54 (29)
15.98 (13)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.96 (8)
13.67 (17)	2nd Chance Pts	13.07 (22)
13.22 (8)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (14)
14.38 (16)	Fast Break Pts	12.68 (24)
13.6 (8)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.63 (9)

Inside the Arc

Nuggets (last 53 games)		Bucks (last 53 games)
45.35 (10)	Paint Attempts	38.49 (29)
45.81 (25)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.46 (21)
59.11 (9)	Paint FG%	61.28 (1)
55.16 (6)	Paint FG% Allowed	57.35 (15)
12.32 (3)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.95 (4)
10.6 (23)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.12 (30)
0.45 (6)	Mid-Range FG%	0.45 (7)
0.4 (6)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (17)

Three Point Shooting

Nuggets (last 53 games)		Bucks (last 53 games)
7.67 (27)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.13 (6)
7.59 (5)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.85 (7)
38.65 (19)	Corner 3 FG%	41.16 (9)
37.4 (8)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.8 (7)
23.15 (26)	ATB3 Attempts	27.82 (9)
23.73 (2)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.28 (24)
37.76 (4)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (18)
35.07 (9)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.54 (13)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nuggets 1h	31-19-3	17-6-2	0-0-0	12-9-0	2-4-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	36-17	21-4	0-0	13-8	2-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bucks 1h	33-19-1	21-7-0	0-0-0	10-10-0	2-2-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	34-19	22-6	0-0	12-8	0-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nuggets 1h	26-27-0	12-13-0	0-0-0	11-10-0	3-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	22-29-2	13-12-0	0-0-0	6-13-2	3-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	23-25-5	17-8-3	0-0-0	3-15-2	3-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	19-33-1	10-17-1	0-0-0	8-12-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nuggets 1h	24-25-4	11-12-2	0-0-0	9-10-2	4-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	20-32-1	10-15-0	0-0-0	7-14-0	3-3-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	21-32-0	11-17-0	0-0-0	9-11-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	30-22-1	18-10-0	0-0-0	11-8-1	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nuggets 1h	22-31-0	12-13-0	0-0-0	8-13-0	2-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	23-30-0	13-12-0	0-0-0	7-14-0	3-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	21-32-0	14-14-0	0-0-0	7-13-0	0-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	27-26-0	16-12-0	0-0-0	10-10-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Nuggets 1h	26-25-2	8-16-1	0-0-0	14-6-1	4-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	26-26-1	13-12-0	0-0-0	10-10-1	3-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	25-27-1	11-16-1	0-0-0	12-8-0	2-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	31-20-2	18-10-0	0-0-0	12-6-2	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	1-3-0 (25%)	2-3-0 (40%)	10-11-0 (47.6%)	3-7-1 (30%)	3-9-0 (25%)
Nuggets	1-0-0 (100%)	1-0-0 (100%)	0-3-0 (0%)	1-3-0 (25%)	10-12-2 (45.5%)	5-6-0 (45.5%)	3-5-1 (37.5%)