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Celtics @ Heat [ +5.5 / 226 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

February 11, 2024
Heat | 48-41 (53.9%)
Celtics | 80-21 (79.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Heat (+5.5) a 47.3-63.7% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 226 around 3.4-3.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Heat have a 55.3% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 3.7% chance of going over the total.

Celtics Situational Notes

Heat Situational Notes

Celtics Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/13	BKN	BOS -8.5 BKN +8.5	228	BOS	-	-	-
2/11	MIA	BOS -5.5 MIA +5.5	226	BOS	-	-	-
2/9	BOS [ 133 ]	BOS -18 WAS +18	236	WAS [ 129 ]	+4	-14	+26
2/7	BOS [ 125 ]	BOS -12 ATL +12	244.5	ATL [ 117 ]	+8	-4	-2.5
2/4	BOS [ 131 ]	BOS -18 MEM +18	219	MEM [ 91 ]	+40	+22	+3
2/1	BOS [ 105 ]	BOS -15 LAL +15	238.5	LAL [ 114 ]	-9	-24	-19.5
1/30	BOS [ 129 ]	BOS -8 IND +8	249	IND [ 124 ]	+5	-3	+4
1/29	BOS [ 118 ]	BOS -8 NOP +8	234	NOP [ 112 ]	+6	-2	-4
1/27	BOS [ 96 ]	BOS -7 LAC +7	232	LAC [ 115 ]	-19	-26	-21
1/25	MIA [ 110 ]	BOS -8 MIA +8	224	BOS [ 143 ]	+33	+25	+29

Heat Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/13	MIL	MIA +8.5 MIL -8.5	222.5	MIA	-	-	-
2/11	MIA	MIA +5.5 BOS -5.5	226	BOS	-	-	-
2/7	MIA [ 116 ]	MIA -8 SAS +8	226	SAS [ 104 ]	+12	+4	-6
2/6	MIA [ 121 ]	MIA -3 ORL +3	213.5	ORL [ 95 ]	+26	+23	+2.5
2/4	MIA [ 95 ]	MIA +4 LAC -4	224.5	LAC [ 103 ]	-8	-4	-26.5
2/2	WAS [ 102 ]	MIA -8.5 WAS +8.5	227.5	MIA [ 110 ]	+8	-0.5	-15.5
1/31	MIA [ 115 ]	MIA -1.5 SAC +1.5	230	SAC [ 106 ]	+9	+7.5	-9
1/29	MIA [ 105 ]	MIA -3.5 PHO +3.5	229.5	PHO [ 118 ]	-13	-16.5	-6.5
1/27	NYK [ 125 ]	MIA +4.5 NYK -4.5	218	MIA [ 109 ]	-16	-11.5	+16
1/25	MIA [ 110 ]	MIA +8 BOS -8	224	BOS [ 143 ]	-33	-25	+29

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
5/1	BOS	MIA +13 BOS -13	201.5	MIA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4/29	MIA	MIA +10.5 BOS -10.5	203.5	BOS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4/27	MIA	MIA +9.5 BOS -9.5	206.5	BOS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4/24	BOS	MIA +13.5 BOS -13.5	206	MIA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4/21	BOS	MIA +14.5 BOS -14.5	210	MIA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/11	MIA	MIA +5.5 BOS -5.5	226	BOS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1/25	MIA [ 110 ]	MIA +8 BOS -8	224	BOS [ 143 ]	-33	-25	+29	110	120	156.1	-36	253
10/27	BOS [ 119 ]	MIA +8.5 BOS -8.5	217.5	MIA [ 111 ]	-8	+0.5	+12.5	119.2	111.7	119.8	-8.1	230
5/29	BOS [ 84 ]	MIA +7 BOS -7	204	MIA [ 103 ]	+19	+26	-17	109.1	113.3	92.4	20.9	187
5/27	MIA [ 103 ]	MIA +2 BOS -2	209	BOS [ 104 ]	-1	+1	-2	107.3	115.2	116.4	-1.1	207
5/25	BOS [ 110 ]	MIA +8.5 BOS -8.5	215	MIA [ 97 ]	-13	-4.5	-8	101.3	114.9	130.3	-15.4	207

Filters

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Current matchup:

Efficiency

Celtics (last 52 games)		Heat (last 52 games)
0.78 (1)	Win Percentage	0.56 (14)
46.94 (21)	ATS Win%	42.86 (25)
51.92 (16)	OU%	40.38 (29)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
123.16 (1)	Offensive Rating	114.04 (22)
111.48 (3)	Defensive Rating	112.23 (5)
97.16 (26)	Pace	96.21 (29)
2.25 (3)	A/TO Ratio	2.04 (14)

Four Factors

Celtics (last 52 games)		Heat (last 52 games)
57.82 (2)	EFG%	53.79 (21)
52.26 (3)	EFG% Allowed	54.27 (13)
22.36 (28)	FT Rate	25.72 (14)
18.92 (1)	FT Rate Allowed	22.35 (4)
24.88 (15)	OReb%	21.79 (27)
23.68 (10)	OReb% Allowed	21.88 (2)
12.2 (2)	TO Rate	13.11 (11)
12.29 (28)	TO Rate Forced	14.22 (7)

Scoring

Celtics (last 52 games)		Heat (last 52 games)
120.57 (5)	PPG	110.15 (27)
109.13 (4)	PPG Allowed	108.39 (2)
15.5 (25)	Pts off TO	16.46 (13)
13.28 (1)	Pts off TO Allowed	15.83 (12)
14.45 (12)	2nd Chance Pts	11.54 (27)
13.65 (13)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.22 (8)
15.38 (9)	Fast Break Pts	12.79 (25)
12.95 (5)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13 (6)

Inside the Arc

Celtics (last 52 games)		Heat (last 52 games)
38.65 (29)	Paint Attempts	42.02 (24)
43.72 (14)	Paint Attempts Allowed	39.89 (2)
60.87 (2)	Paint FG%	56.15 (23)
54.56 (4)	Paint FG% Allowed	58.12 (19)
9.1 (22)	Mid-Range Attempts	9.91 (16)
11.26 (28)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9.35 (7)
0.43 (11)	Mid-Range FG%	0.38 (27)
0.42 (13)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.43 (22)

Three Point Shooting

Celtics (last 52 games)		Heat (last 52 games)
9.32 (11)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.05 (8)
7.73 (7)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	10.38 (25)
43.06 (2)	Corner 3 FG%	39.32 (15)
35.17 (1)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	37.72 (10)
33 (1)	ATB3 Attempts	23.5 (24)
28.67 (30)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	26.22 (18)
37.73 (4)	ATB3 FG%	36.22 (17)
35.56 (13)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	34.56 (5)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	41-11-0	20-8-0	0-0-0	20-2-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	40-12	25-3	0-0	14-8	1-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Heat 1h	27-22-3	14-5-2	3-2-1	6-6-0	4-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	28-24	15-6	0-6	8-4	5-8	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	36-15-1	18-10-0	0-0-0	17-4-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	24-26-2	14-14-0	0-0-0	9-11-2	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat 1h	28-22-2	11-10-0	4-1-1	6-6-0	7-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	21-28-3	10-10-1	0-6-0	4-7-1	7-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	26-25-1	16-12-0	0-0-0	9-12-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	27-25-0	15-13-0	0-0-0	11-11-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat 1h	22-29-1	8-12-1	4-2-0	3-9-0	7-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	21-31-0	9-12-0	4-2-0	4-8-0	4-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	29-22-1	18-10-0	0-0-0	10-11-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	27-25-0	16-12-0	0-0-0	10-12-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat 1h	25-25-2	11-8-2	4-2-0	3-9-0	7-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	26-26-0	11-10-0	4-2-0	4-8-0	7-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Celtics 1h	19-32-1	11-17-0	0-0-0	6-15-1	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	26-26-0	15-13-0	0-0-0	10-12-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat 1h	20-32-0	8-13-0	2-4-0	4-8-0	6-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Heat	24-27-1	12-9-0	4-1-1	4-8-0	4-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Heat	0-0-0 (-)	2-3-1 (40%)	5-6-0 (45.5%)	6-5-1 (54.5%)	5-8-1 (38.5%)	3-6-0 (33.3%)	0-0-0 (-)
Celtics	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	1-1-0 (50%)	0-0-0 (-)	6-9-1 (40%)	7-8-1 (46.7%)	9-8-1 (52.9%)