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Timberwolves @ Bulls [ +5.5 / 216 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

February 6, 2024
Bulls | 40-44 (47.6%)
Timberwolves | 65-33 (66.3%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bulls (+5.5) a 51-52.1% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 216 around 3.4-3.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bulls have a 66.4% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 3.5% chance of going over the total.

Timberwolves Situational Notes

Bulls Situational Notes

Timberwolves Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/8	MIL	MIN +1 MIL -1	228	MIN	-	-	-
2/6	CHI	MIN -5.5 CHI +5.5	216	MIN	-	-	-
2/4	MIN [ 111 ]	MIN -8 HOU +8	222	HOU [ 90 ]	+21	+13	-21
2/2	MIN [ 106 ]	MIN -8 ORL +8	211.5	ORL [ 108 ]	-2	-10	+2.5
1/31	MIN [ 121 ]	MIN -14 DAL +14	221.5	DAL [ 87 ]	+34	+20	-13.5
1/29	OKC [ 101 ]	MIN +2.5 OKC -2.5	224.5	MIN [ 107 ]	+6	+8.5	-16.5
1/27	SAS [ 113 ]	MIN -11 SAS +11	227	MIN [ 112 ]	-1	-12	-2
1/25	BKN [ 94 ]	MIN -3.5 BKN +3.5	216.5	MIN [ 96 ]	+2	-1.5	-26.5
1/24	WAS [ 107 ]	MIN -11 WAS +11	229.5	MIN [ 118 ]	+11	0	-4.5
1/22	MIN [ 125 ]	MIN -14 CHA +14	222	CHA [ 128 ]	-3	-17	+31

Bulls Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/8	MEM	CHI -5.5 MEM +5.5	216	CHI	-	-	-
2/6	CHI	CHI +5.5 MIN -5.5	216	MIN	-	-	-
2/3	CHI [ 115 ]	CHI -2 SAC +2	229.5	SAC [ 123 ]	-8	-10	+8.5
1/31	CHA [ 110 ]	CHI -4 CHA +4	218	CHI [ 117 ]	+7	+3	+9
1/30	CHI [ 107 ]	CHI -7 TOR +7	227	TOR [ 118 ]	-11	-18	-2
1/28	POR [ 96 ]	CHI -6.5 POR +6.5	219.5	CHI [ 104 ]	+8	+1.5	-19.5
1/25	LAL [ 141 ]	CHI +4.5 LAL -4.5	228.5	CHI [ 132 ]	-9	-4.5	+44.5
1/22	PHO [ 115 ]	CHI +5.5 PHO -5.5	226.5	CHI [ 113 ]	-2	+3.5	+1.5
1/20	CHI [ 125 ]	CHI -8 MEM +8	217	MEM [ 96 ]	+29	+21	+4
1/18	TOR [ 110 ]	CHI -2 TOR +2	228.5	CHI [ 116 ]	+6	+4	-2.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/31	MIN	CHI +8.5 MIN -8.5	213.5	CHI	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/6	CHI	CHI +5.5 MIN -5.5	216	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/17	CHI [ 139 ]	CHI -2.5 MIN +2.5	221.5	MIN [ 131 ]	+8	+5.5	+48.5	111.8	123.5	116.4	7.1	223.4
12/18	MIN [ 150 ]	CHI -1.5 MIN +1.5	234	CHI [ 126 ]	-24	-25.5	+42	122.3	123.6	147.2	-23.5	276

Filters

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Efficiency

Timberwolves (last 50 games)		Bulls (last 50 games)
0.68 (5)	Win Percentage	0.48 (19)
50 (15)	ATS Win%	53.06 (12)
44.9 (25)	OU%	54 (13)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
115.59 (18)	Offensive Rating	114.85 (19)
108.99 (1)	Defensive Rating	116.32 (16)
97.12 (26)	Pace	96.28 (30)
1.88 (22)	A/TO Ratio	2.04 (13)

Four Factors

Timberwolves (last 50 games)		Bulls (last 50 games)
55.94 (8)	EFG%	53.39 (23)
51.54 (1)	EFG% Allowed	55.64 (20)
26.97 (8)	FT Rate	23.59 (23)
25.22 (13)	FT Rate Allowed	25.09 (12)
23.16 (21)	OReb%	25.13 (15)
23.1 (7)	OReb% Allowed	23.65 (11)
14.5 (23)	TO Rate	12.53 (3)
14.55 (6)	TO Rate Forced	14.31 (7)

Scoring

Timberwolves (last 50 games)		Bulls (last 50 games)
112.98 (22)	PPG	112.27 (25)
106.52 (1)	PPG Allowed	113.71 (14)
16.99 (11)	Pts off TO	17.17 (9)
16.3 (14)	Pts off TO Allowed	15.23 (10)
13.51 (18)	2nd Chance Pts	13.63 (17)
12.71 (5)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.82 (13)
12.39 (27)	Fast Break Pts	12.45 (26)
13.24 (4)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.27 (6)

Inside the Arc

Timberwolves (last 50 games)		Bulls (last 50 games)
44.11 (19)	Paint Attempts	42.85 (23)
43.2 (10)	Paint Attempts Allowed	38.5 (1)
57.56 (16)	Paint FG%	56.46 (21)
53.39 (1)	Paint FG% Allowed	59.01 (22)
8.24 (26)	Mid-Range Attempts	14.56 (1)
11.29 (29)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9 (4)
0.39 (23)	Mid-Range FG%	0.44 (10)
0.4 (6)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (17)

Three Point Shooting

Timberwolves (last 50 games)		Bulls (last 50 games)
9.59 (9)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.21 (11)
8.11 (9)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	11.12 (29)
40.84 (10)	Corner 3 FG%	38.54 (17)
38.65 (14)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	41.56 (25)
22.9 (27)	ATB3 Attempts	22.74 (28)
24.01 (5)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	28.18 (26)
38.07 (2)	ATB3 FG%	34.91 (22)
34.59 (4)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.31 (11)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	30-20-0	16-6-0	1-1-0	10-7-0	3-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	35-15	17-5	2-0	13-4	3-6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bulls 1h	22-27-1	11-6-0	1-7-1	4-3-0	6-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	23-27	9-8	5-4	6-1	3-14	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	21-28-1	8-14-0	1-1-0	8-8-1	4-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	24-25-1	11-11-0	2-0-0	7-9-1	4-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	24-24-2	11-6-0	2-6-1	4-3-0	7-9-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	25-24-1	8-9-0	5-3-1	5-2-0	7-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	19-30-1	8-14-0	0-2-0	8-8-1	3-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	22-27-1	8-13-1	1-1-0	7-10-0	6-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	21-27-2	7-9-1	4-5-0	4-3-0	6-10-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	27-23-0	7-10-0	6-3-0	5-2-0	9-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	21-29-0	8-14-0	1-1-0	9-8-0	3-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	24-26-0	8-14-0	2-0-0	10-7-0	4-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	17-31-2	5-12-0	3-6-0	3-4-0	6-9-2	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	23-27-0	5-12-0	5-4-0	5-2-0	8-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	26-24-0	11-11-0	0-2-0	11-6-0	4-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	20-30-0	7-15-0	0-2-0	8-9-0	5-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls 1h	22-28-0	5-12-0	4-5-0	4-3-0	9-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bulls	29-20-1	9-8-0	5-4-0	5-2-0	10-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bulls	2-2-0 (50%)	2-3-0 (40%)	7-6-0 (53.8%)	3-4-1 (42.9%)	10-7-0 (58.8%)	2-1-0 (66.7%)	0-0-0 (-)
Timberwolves	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	4-4-0 (50%)	4-4-0 (50%)	6-6-1 (50%)	6-4-0 (60%)	3-6-1 (33.3%)