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2/4 | 2/6SAC@CLE LAC@ATL LAL@CHA GSW@BKN TOR@NOP DAL@PHI

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Kings @ Cavaliers [ -5 / 235 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

February 5, 2024
Cavaliers | 53-41 (56.4%)
Kings | 47-37 (56%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Cavaliers (-5) a 50.3-54.4% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 235 around 2.8-2.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Cavaliers have a 50.3% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 2.7% chance of going over the total.

Kings Situational Notes

Cavaliers Situational Notes

Kings Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/7	SAC	SAC -13 DET +13	242	DET	-	-	-
2/5	CLE	SAC +5 CLE -5	235	SAC	-	-	-
2/3	CHI [ 115 ]	SAC +2 CHI -2	229.5	SAC [ 123 ]	+8	+10	+8.5
2/2	IND [ 122 ]	SAC -3 IND +3	248.5	SAC [ 133 ]	+11	+8	+6.5
1/31	MIA [ 115 ]	SAC +1.5 MIA -1.5	230	SAC [ 106 ]	-9	-7.5	-9
1/29	MEM [ 94 ]	SAC -8 MEM +8	225	SAC [ 103 ]	+9	+1	-28
1/27	DAL [ 115 ]	SAC -4.5 DAL +4.5	243.5	SAC [ 120 ]	+5	+0.5	-8.5
1/25	GSW [ 133 ]	SAC -2 GSW +2	242.5	SAC [ 134 ]	+1	-1	+24.5
1/22	SAC [ 122 ]	SAC -8.5 ATL +8.5	238.5	ATL [ 107 ]	+15	+6.5	-9.5
1/18	SAC [ 121 ]	SAC -8.5 IND +8.5	244.5	IND [ 126 ]	-5	-13.5	+2.5

Cavaliers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/7	WAS	CLE -11.5 WAS +11.5	234	CLE	-	-	-
2/5	CLE	CLE -5 SAC +5	235	SAC	-	-	-
2/3	SAS [ 101 ]	CLE -10.5 SAS +10.5	229	CLE [ 117 ]	+16	+5.5	-11
2/1	MEM [ 101 ]	CLE -8.5 MEM +8.5	214	CLE [ 108 ]	+7	-1.5	-5
1/31	CLE [ 128 ]	CLE -13 DET +13	229.5	DET [ 121 ]	+7	-6	+19.5
1/29	CLE [ 118 ]	CLE +2.5 LAC -2.5	225.5	LAC [ 108 ]	+10	+12.5	+0.5
1/26	MIL [ 100 ]	CLE +5.5 MIL -5.5	238	CLE [ 112 ]	+12	+17.5	-26
1/24	MIL [ 126 ]	CLE +6.5 MIL -6.5	236.5	CLE [ 116 ]	-10	-3.5	+5.5
1/22	ORL [ 99 ]	CLE -2 ORL +2	215	CLE [ 126 ]	+27	+25	+10
1/20	ATL [ 95 ]	CLE -2 ATL +2	232.5	CLE [ 116 ]	+21	+19	-21.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
2/5	CLE	CLE -5 SAC +5	235	SAC	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11/13	SAC [ 132 ]	CLE -1 SAC +1	226.5	CLE [ 120 ]	-12	-13	+25.5	111.5	129.2	142.1	-12.9	252
12/9	CLE [ 95 ]	CLE -5.5 SAC +5.5	222.5	SAC [ 106 ]	-11	-16.5	-21.5	114.7	99.4	110.9	-11.5	201
11/9	SAC [ 127 ]	CLE -4.5 SAC +4.5	228	CLE [ 120 ]	-7	-11.5	+19	116.1	124	131.3	-7.2	247

Filters

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Efficiency

Kings (last 48 games)		Cavaliers (last 47 games)
0.56 (12)	Win Percentage	0.59 (9)
55.32 (8)	ATS Win%	55.56 (7)
48.94 (19)	OU%	48.94 (20)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
117.01 (14)	Offensive Rating	115.21 (17)
114.82 (14)	Defensive Rating	112.74 (6)
98.73 (17)	Pace	97.15 (26)
2.16 (5)	A/TO Ratio	2.07 (9)

Four Factors

Kings (last 48 games)		Cavaliers (last 47 games)
55.56 (11)	EFG%	55.67 (10)
55.3 (19)	EFG% Allowed	53.48 (7)
22.94 (28)	FT Rate	23.38 (25)
26.73 (22)	FT Rate Allowed	24.02 (6)
24.56 (18)	OReb%	23.19 (20)
21.78 (1)	OReb% Allowed	23.09 (7)
13.2 (10)	TO Rate	13.87 (20)
14.02 (11)	TO Rate Forced	13.91 (14)

Scoring

Kings (last 48 games)		Cavaliers (last 47 games)
116.56 (12)	PPG	112.63 (22)
114.38 (15)	PPG Allowed	110.22 (3)
16.48 (13)	Pts off TO	16.6 (12)
16.3 (14)	Pts off TO Allowed	17.37 (20)
14.7 (11)	2nd Chance Pts	13.59 (17)
10.94 (1)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	12.87 (6)
14.37 (15)	Fast Break Pts	14.78 (12)
11.63 (3)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	14.34 (18)

Inside the Arc

Kings (last 48 games)		Cavaliers (last 47 games)
42.83 (23)	Paint Attempts	43.45 (20)
43.1 (11)	Paint Attempts Allowed	42.2 (7)
59.4 (7)	Paint FG%	57.65 (16)
56.68 (10)	Paint FG% Allowed	55.14 (5)
8.83 (26)	Mid-Range Attempts	6.94 (28)
9.84 (13)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	11.5 (28)
0.4 (21)	Mid-Range FG%	0.46 (3)
0.42 (16)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.41 (8)

Three Point Shooting

Kings (last 48 games)		Cavaliers (last 47 games)
9.96 (7)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.18 (12)
9.22 (21)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	9.54 (22)
38.56 (16)	Corner 3 FG%	37.05 (23)
40.48 (21)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	39.39 (15)
29.2 (3)	ATB3 Attempts	27.46 (9)
24.46 (6)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	24.06 (5)
36.05 (17)	ATB3 FG%	36.77 (12)
38.24 (28)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	36.54 (18)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Kings 1h	25-22-1	11-8-0	2-1-0	7-6-1	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings	29-19	12-7	2-1	10-4	5-7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Cavaliers 1h	29-17-1	15-3-0	3-4-0	6-4-1	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	31-16	15-3	2-5	8-3	6-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Kings 1h	24-23-1	10-9-0	2-1-0	6-8-0	6-5-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings	26-20-2	7-11-1	2-1-0	9-4-1	8-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	25-19-3	11-6-1	3-4-0	5-5-1	6-4-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	25-20-2	11-6-1	2-5-0	5-5-1	7-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Kings 1h	23-25-0	8-11-0	2-1-0	8-6-0	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings	23-24-1	12-7-0	2-1-0	6-7-1	3-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	23-21-3	7-9-2	4-3-0	5-5-1	7-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	23-24-0	8-10-0	5-2-0	5-6-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Kings 1h	19-29-0	6-13-0	1-2-0	6-8-0	6-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings	23-25-0	9-10-0	2-1-0	7-7-0	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	23-23-1	12-5-1	2-5-0	4-7-0	5-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	22-24-1	9-9-0	3-4-0	4-6-1	6-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Kings 1h	26-21-1	8-11-0	2-1-0	9-5-0	7-4-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Kings	23-25-0	15-4-0	2-1-0	4-10-0	2-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	17-29-1	4-13-1	5-2-0	5-6-0	3-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	19-28-0	7-11-0	4-3-0	4-7-0	4-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Cavaliers	1-0-0 (100%)	1-0-1 (100%)	7-6-0 (53.8%)	5-5-0 (50%)	7-3-1 (70%)	1-3-0 (25%)	3-3-0 (50%)
Kings	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	4-1-0 (80%)	10-8-0 (55.6%)	6-7-1 (46.2%)	4-3-0 (57.1%)	2-2-0 (50%)