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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Celtics (-12) a 50.7-45.8% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 244.5 around 2.9-3.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Celtics have a 59.7% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 2.7% chance of going over the total.


Hawks Situational Notes

Celtics Situational Notes

Hawks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
2/9PHIATL -4
PHI +4
244.5ATL---
2/7BOSATL +12
BOS -12
244.5ATL---
2/5ATL [ 144 ]ATL +4
LAC -4
245LAC [ 149 ]-5-1+48
2/3ATL [ 141 ]ATL -2.5
GSW +2.5
244.5GSW [ 134 ]+7+4.5+30.5
2/2ATL [ 129 ]ATL +3.5
PHO -3.5
249PHO [ 120 ]+9+12.50
1/30ATL [ 138 ]ATL -5.5
LAL +5.5
248LAL [ 122 ]+16+10.5+12
1/28ATL [ 126 ]ATL -6.5
TOR +6.5
243TOR [ 125 ]+1-5.5+8
1/26ATL [ 143 ]ATL -1.5
DAL +1.5
246.5DAL [ 148 ]-5-6.5+44.5
1/24GSW [ 134 ]ATL +6.5
GSW -6.5
234ATL [ 112 ]-22-15.5+12
1/22SAC [ 122 ]ATL +8.5
SAC -8.5
238.5ATL [ 107 ]-15-6.5-9.5

Celtics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
2/9BOSBOS -18
WAS +18
236WAS---
2/7BOSBOS -12
ATL +12
244.5ATL---
2/4BOS [ 131 ]BOS -18
MEM +18
219MEM [ 91 ]+40+22+3
2/1BOS [ 105 ]BOS -15
LAL +15
238.5LAL [ 114 ]-9-24-19.5
1/30BOS [ 129 ]BOS -8
IND +8
249IND [ 124 ]+5-3+4
1/29BOS [ 118 ]BOS -8
NOP +8
234NOP [ 112 ]+6-2-4
1/27BOS [ 96 ]BOS -7
LAC +7
232LAC [ 115 ]-19-26-21
1/25MIA [ 110 ]BOS -8
MIA +8
224BOS [ 143 ]+33+25+29
1/22DAL [ 110 ]BOS -2.5
DAL +2.5
240BOS [ 119 ]+9+6.5-11
1/21HOU [ 107 ]BOS -12
HOU +12
226.5BOS [ 116 ]+9-3-3.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
3/28ATLBOS -17.5
ATL +17.5
226BOS--------
3/25ATLBOS -12
ATL +12
226BOS--------
2/7BOSBOS -12
ATL +12
244.5ATL--------
11/26BOS [ 113 ]BOS -7
ATL +7
236ATL [ 103 ]+10+3-20115.9117106.610.4216
4/27ATL [ 120 ]BOS -7
ATL +7
229.5BOS [ 128 ]+8+1+18.5116.8131.5123.38.2248
4/25BOS [ 117 ]BOS -13
ATL +13
231ATL [ 119 ]-2-15+5116.9120.1122.2-2.1236
4/23ATL [ 121 ]BOS -7
ATL +7
231BOS [ 129 ]+8+1+19126.9122114.47.6250
4/21ATL [ 130 ]BOS -5.5
ATL +5.5
229.5BOS [ 122 ]-8-13.5+22.5123.6118.5126.3-7.8252
4/18BOS [ 119 ]BOS -10
ATL +10
231.5ATL [ 106 ]+13+3-6.512011910613225
4/15BOS [ 112 ]BOS -10
ATL +10
230.5ATL [ 99 ]+13+3-19.5120.8111.398.412.9211
4/9BOS [ 120 ]BOS -4.5
ATL +4.5
224ATL [ 114 ]+6+1.5+10115.4124.8118.66.2234


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Hawks 1h24-23-39-7-22-5-17-1-06-10-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 22-289-93-55-35-110-00-00-00-0
Celtics 1h40-10-019-7-00-0-020-2-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 38-1223-30-014-81-10-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Hawks 1h25-24-19-9-03-4-16-2-07-9-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 14-36-04-14-03-5-02-6-05-11-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h36-13-118-8-00-0-017-4-11-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 24-24-214-12-00-0-09-11-21-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Hawks 1h24-24-25-12-16-2-04-4-09-6-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 26-23-111-7-06-2-04-4-05-10-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h24-25-114-12-00-0-09-12-11-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 26-24-014-12-00-0-011-11-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Hawks 1h25-25-07-11-06-2-04-4-08-8-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 26-24-09-9-06-2-05-3-06-10-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h28-21-117-9-00-0-010-11-11-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 26-24-015-11-00-0-010-12-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Hawks 1h24-26-08-10-04-4-03-5-09-7-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Hawks 33-16-114-4-05-3-05-2-19-7-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h17-32-19-17-00-0-06-15-12-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 24-26-013-13-00-0-010-12-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)6-9-1 (40%)7-8-1 (46.7%)9-6-1 (60%)
Hawks0-0-0 (-)1-3-0 (25%)3-7-0 (30%)5-11-0 (31.3%)3-11-0 (21.4%)2-3-0 (40%)0-1-0 (0%)