White Sox @ Twins [ Twins -154 / 8.5 ]

White Sox | 51-88 (36.7%) Fraser Ellard (L) | 0-2 | WHIP: 1.07 | ERA: 4.82
Twins | 60-76 (44.1%) Taj Bradley (R) | 6-7 | WHIP: 1.29 | ERA: 4.82

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

White Sox
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
3/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:4
Est. fair odds: -163 to -187
Implied win prob: 61.98% to 65.16%
Twins
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
0/3
Matchup:-4
Est. fair odds: +163 to +187
Implied win prob: 34.84% to 38.02%
White Sox Situational Notes

Twins Situational Notes
Home stand (7th consecutive game at home or more)
Game off demoralizing loss (led after 8th)

White Sox Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
9/5DET [ 0 ]Jack Flaherty (R)CHW -
DET -		-CHW [ 0 ]Shane Smith (R)
9/4MIN [ 0 ]Taj Bradley (R)CHW +130
MIN -154		8.5CHW [ 0 ]Fraser Ellard (L)
9/3MIN [ 3 ]Zebby Matthews (R)CHW +154
MIN -162		8.5CHW [ 4 ]Yoendrys Gomez (R)
9/2MIN [ 3 ]Simeon Woods Richardson (R)CHW +124
MIN -144		9CHW [ 12 ]Davis Martin (R)
9/1MIN [ 5 ]Bailey Ober (R)CHW -
MIN -190		-CHW [ 6 ]Fraser Ellard (L)
8/31CHW [ 3 ]Martin Perez (L)CHW +148
NYY -180		8.5NYY [ 2 ]Luis Gil (R)
8/30CHW [ 3 ]Shane Smith (R)CHW +180
NYY -210		8.5NYY [ 5 ]Cam Schlittler (R)
8/29CHW [ 2 ]Yoendrys Gomez (R)CHW +188
NYY -215		9NYY [ 10 ]Carlos Rodon (L)
8/28CHW [ 4 ]Davis Martin (R)CHW +164
NYY -190		9NYY [ 10 ]Will Warren (R)
8/27CHW [ 1 ]Aaron Civale (R)CHW +108
KCR -130		8.5KCR [ 12 ]Ryan Bergert (R)
Twins Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
9/5KCR [ 0 ]Michael Wacha (R)MIN -
KCR -		-MIN [ 0 ]TBD (-)
9/4MIN [ 0 ]Taj Bradley (R)MIN -154
CHW +130		8.5CHW [ 0 ]Fraser Ellard (L)
9/3MIN [ 3 ]Zebby Matthews (R)MIN -184
CHW +134		8.5CHW [ 4 ]Yoendrys Gomez (R)
9/2MIN [ 3 ]Simeon Woods Richardson (R)MIN -146
CHW +122		9CHW [ 12 ]Davis Martin (R)
9/1MIN [ 5 ]Bailey Ober (R)MIN -
CHW +158		-CHW [ 6 ]Fraser Ellard (L)
8/31MIN [ 7 ]Joe Ryan (R)MIN -122
SDP +104		8.5SDP [ 2 ]David Morgan (R)
8/30MIN [ 3 ]Taj Bradley (R)MIN +130
SDP -155		8.5SDP [ 12 ]Nick Pivetta (R)
8/29MIN [ 7 ]Zebby Matthews (R)MIN +110
SDP -122		8.5SDP [ 4 ]Nestor Cortes (L)
8/27TOR [ 9 ]Eric Lauer (L)MIN +152
TOR -184		9MIN [ 8 ]Simeon Woods Richardson (R)
8/26TOR [ 5 ]Chris Bassitt (R)MIN +160
TOR -196		8.5MIN [ 7 ]Bailey Ober (R)

Fraser Ellard Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
9/1MIN [ 5 ]CHW [ 6 ]001.67230001Bailey Ober (R)
1.67230001
Taj Bradley Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/30MIN [ 3 ]SDP [ 12 ]1308.55631111Nick Pivetta (R)
8/24CHW [ 8 ]MIN [ 0 ]-13690000000Yoendrys Gomez (R)
7/23TBR [ 9 ]CHW [ 11 ]-21591.67034144Jonathan Cannon (R)
7/18TBR [ 11 ]BAL [ 1 ]-12496613000Charlie Morton (R)
7/10BOS [ 4 ]TBR [ 3 ]006532011Walker Buehler (R)
2.531.50.50.50.50.5
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Fraser Ellard F51-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)
Fraser Ellard1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)1-0 (100%)
Taj Bradley F510-10-3 (50%)4-2-2 (66.7%)0-2-0 (0%)2-1-0 (66.7%)4-5-0 (44.4%)
Taj Bradley10-13 (43.5%)5-3 (62.5%)0-2 (0%)1-2 (33.3%)4-5 (44.4%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Fraser Ellard F51-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)
Fraser Ellard1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)
Taj Bradley F58-9-3 (47.1%)1-4-1 (20%)2-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-3-2 (50%)
Taj Bradley13-8-2 (61.9%)5-2-1 (71.4%)1-1-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)5-4-0 (55.6%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
White Sox vs. RHP F539-45-28 (46.4%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-1 (0%)21-16-19 (56.8%)17-28-8 (37.8%)
White Sox vs. RHP40-72 (35.7%)0-0 (-)1-1 (50%)23-33 (41.1%)16-37 (30.2%)
Twins vs. LHP F511-14-3 (44%)5-5-1 (50%)0-3-0 (0%)3-1-0 (75%)3-5-2 (37.5%)
Twins vs. LHP8-20 (28.6%)4-7 (36.4%)0-3 (0%)2-2 (50%)2-8 (20%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
White Sox vs. RHP F543-56-7 (43.4%)0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)18-34-1 (34.6%)24-20-6 (54.5%)
White Sox vs. RHP54-55-3 (49.5%)0-0-0 (-)0-2-0 (0%)30-24-2 (55.6%)24-28-1 (46.2%)
Twins vs. LHP F511-11-3 (50%)5-5-1 (50%)2-0-1 (100%)2-2-0 (50%)2-4-1 (33.3%)
Twins vs. LHP13-14-1 (48.1%)5-6-0 (45.5%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-2-1 (33.3%)5-5-0 (50%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Fraser Ellard1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)1-0 (100%)
White Sox85-59 (59%)0-0 (-)0-2 (0%)44-31 (58.7%)41-26 (61.2%)
Taj Bradley12-10 (54.5%)4-4 (50%)0-2 (0%)1-2 (33.3%)7-2 (77.8%)
Twins62-78 (44.3%)19-37 (33.9%)11-18 (37.9%)6-8 (42.9%)26-15 (63.4%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Fraser Ellard0-1 (0%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)0-1 (0%)
White Sox78-67 (53.8%)0-0 (-)1-1 (50%)38-37 (50.7%)38-29 (56.7%)
Taj Bradley13-10 (56.5%)5-3 (62.5%)2-0 (100%)2-1 (66.7%)3-6 (33.3%)
Twins74-71 (51%)25-31 (44.6%)19-10 (65.5%)3-11 (21.4%)24-17 (58.5%)


Batting Matchup
White SoxTwins
140TG139
4R/G4.2
143HR163
0.234AVG0.238
79SB82
20CS27
White SoxTwins
0.141ISO0.159
0.28BABIP0.281
0.303OBP0.311
0.376SLG0.397
0.298wOBA0.31
88wRC+97
White SoxTwins
8.5BB%8.2
22.4K%22.1
0.38BB/K0.37
7.9Barrel%8.8
40.6HardHit%42.3
5.5WAR12.6

Pitching Matchup
Fraser EllardTaj Bradley
9G23
1GS23
9.1IP121.1
1IP/G5.3
0W6
2L7
45.5LOB%62.9
Fraser EllardTaj Bradley
12.54K/97.57
8.68BB/93.56
10.8K/BB%10.5
50GB%46.1
42.9FB%36.6
0HR/91.11
0HR/FB%11.5
Fraser EllardTaj Bradley
0.071BABIP0.272
4.82ERA4.82
3.44xERA3.88
3.57FIP4.35
4.55xFIP4.4
1.07WHIP1.29
5.02SIERA4.55
0.1WAR1.6

Bullpen Matchup
White SoxTwins
3.21BPU/G3.4
4IP/G3.8
24W24
41L35
20SV26
21BS21
73LOB%69.1
White SoxTwins
8.41K/98.7
4.02BB/93.38
11.2K/BB%13.5
38.6GB%44.4
41.5FB%34.9
0.99HR/90.94
9.3HR/FB%10.1
White SoxTwins
0.293BABIP0.322
4.12ERA4.55
4.2FIP3.85
4.59xFIP4.07
1.38WHIP1.41
4.19SIERA3.83
3.8WAR5.2