Guardians @ Rays [ Rays -162 / 8.5 ]

Guardians | 69-68 (50.4%) Logan Allen (L) | 7-10 | WHIP: 1.44 | ERA: 4.42
Rays | 70-69 (50.4%) Ryan Pepiot (R) | 10-10 | WHIP: 1.15 | ERA: 3.70

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Guardians
Starting Pitcher:
0/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
0/3
Matchup:-6
Est. fair odds: +215 to +246
Implied win prob: 28.90% to 31.75%
Rays
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:6
Est. fair odds: -215 to -246
Implied win prob: 68.25% to 71.10%
Guardians Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Rays Situational Notes

Guardians Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
9/5TBR [ 0 ]Ian Seymour (L)CLE -
TBR -		-CLE [ 0 ]Gavin Williams (R)
9/4TBR [ 0 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)CLE +136
TBR -162		8.5CLE [ 0 ]Logan Allen (L)
9/3BOS [ 1 ]Brennan Bernardino (L)CLE +118
BOS -142		9CLE [ 8 ]Joey Cantillo (L)
9/2BOS [ 11 ]Garrett Crochet (L)CLE +220
BOS -240		7.5CLE [ 7 ]Slade Cecconi (R)
9/1BOS [ 6 ]Brayan Bello (R)CLE +124
BOS -146		8.5CLE [ 4 ]Parker Messick (L)
8/31CLE [ 2 ]Tanner Bibee (R)CLE -106
SEA -110		8SEA [ 4 ]Bryce Miller (R)
8/30CLE [ 4 ]Gavin Williams (R)CLE +116
SEA -155		7.5SEA [ 3 ]Logan Gilbert (R)
8/29CLE [ 5 ]Logan Allen (L)CLE +134
SEA -158		7.5SEA [ 4 ]George Kirby (R)
8/27CLE [ 4 ]Slade Cecconi (R)CLE +114
TBR -148		7.5TBR [ 3 ]Drew Rasmussen (R)
8/26CLE [ 3 ]Parker Messick (L)CLE -120
TBR +102		7.5TBR [ 0 ]Shane Baz (R)
Rays Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
9/5TBR [ 0 ]Ian Seymour (L)TBR -
CLE -		-CLE [ 0 ]Gavin Williams (R)
9/4TBR [ 0 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)TBR -162
CLE +136		8.5CLE [ 0 ]Logan Allen (L)
9/3TBR [ 9 ]Adrian Houser (R)TBR +122
SEA -130		8SEA [ 4 ]George Kirby (R)
9/2TBR [ 6 ]Drew Rasmussen (R)TBR -102
SEA -122		7.5SEA [ 5 ]Bryan Woo (R)
9/1TBR [ 10 ]Shane Baz (R)TBR +102
SEA -108		8.5SEA [ 2 ]Luis Castillo (R)
8/31WSN [ 4 ]Brad Lord (R)TBR -142
WSN +120		8TBR [ 7 ]Ian Seymour (L)
8/30WSN [ 1 ]Jake Irvin (R)TBR -162
WSN +135		8.5TBR [ 4 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)
8/29WSN [ 1 ]Mitchell Parker (L)TBR -142
WSN +120		9TBR [ 4 ]Adrian Houser (R)
8/27CLE [ 4 ]Slade Cecconi (R)TBR -134
CLE +126		7.5TBR [ 3 ]Drew Rasmussen (R)
8/26CLE [ 3 ]Parker Messick (L)TBR +102
CLE -120		7.5TBR [ 0 ]Shane Baz (R)

Logan Allen Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/29CLE [ 5 ]SEA [ 4 ]1347.56536144George Kirby (R)
8/23TEX [ 10 ]CLE [ 0 ]1068.50000000Jack Leiter (R)
8/17CLE [ 4 ]ATL [ 5 ]-11894.67635013Erick Fedde (R)
8/12CLE [ 4 ]MIA [ 3 ]-1368.55544023Janson Junk (R)
8/5NYM [ 2 ]CLE [ 3 ]1588.55644022Clay Holmes (R)
4.134.42.83.80.21.82.4
Ryan Pepiot Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/30WSN [ 1 ]TBR [ 4 ]-1628.55631000Jake Irvin (R)
8/24TBR [ 7 ]STL [ 2 ]-1308.50000000Matthew Liberatore (L)
8/17SFG [ 7 ]TBR [ 1 ]11875.67826044Logan Webb (R)
8/11ATH [ 4 ]TBR [ 7 ]-106106.33425244Jeffrey Springs (L)
8/5LAA [ 3 ]TBR [ 7 ]10885.67625123Jose Soriano (R)
4.534.81.83.40.622.2
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Logan Allen F58-13-4 (38.1%)4-1-2 (80%)0-0-1 (-)1-6-0 (14.3%)3-5-1 (37.5%)
Logan Allen13-12 (52%)4-3 (57.1%)1-0 (100%)2-5 (28.6%)5-4 (55.6%)
Ryan Pepiot F512-12-4 (50%)5-6-0 (45.5%)1-2-0 (33.3%)1-2-0 (33.3%)5-2-4 (71.4%)
Ryan Pepiot12-16 (42.9%)8-3 (72.7%)1-2 (33.3%)0-3 (0%)3-8 (27.3%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Logan Allen F59-12-3 (42.9%)4-1-2 (80%)0-1-0 (0%)2-4-1 (33.3%)3-5-0 (37.5%)
Logan Allen10-14-1 (41.7%)2-4-1 (33.3%)0-1-0 (0%)4-3-0 (57.1%)3-6-0 (33.3%)
Ryan Pepiot F59-16-2 (36%)6-3-1 (66.7%)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-3-0 (0%)1-9-1 (10%)
Ryan Pepiot11-16-1 (40.7%)5-5-1 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-8-0 (27.3%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Guardians vs. RHP F539-38-20 (50.6%)14-10-7 (58.3%)5-5-5 (50%)5-11-3 (31.3%)15-11-5 (57.7%)
Guardians vs. RHP54-43 (55.7%)19-12 (61.3%)10-5 (66.7%)9-10 (47.4%)15-16 (48.4%)
Rays vs. LHP F511-20-7 (35.5%)3-7-4 (30%)1-0-1 (100%)3-5-1 (37.5%)4-8-1 (33.3%)
Rays vs. LHP17-21 (44.7%)7-7 (50%)2-0 (100%)3-6 (33.3%)5-8 (38.5%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Guardians vs. RHP F539-46-5 (45.9%)13-13-2 (50%)10-5-0 (66.7%)6-10-2 (37.5%)10-17-1 (37%)
Guardians vs. RHP45-48-4 (48.4%)15-15-1 (50%)10-5-0 (66.7%)8-10-1 (44.4%)11-18-2 (37.9%)
Rays vs. LHP F512-22-2 (35.3%)5-7-1 (41.7%)1-1-0 (50%)2-6-1 (25%)4-8-0 (33.3%)
Rays vs. LHP11-25-2 (30.6%)4-9-1 (30.8%)0-1-1 (0%)3-6-0 (33.3%)4-9-0 (30.8%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Logan Allen11-13 (45.8%)2-5 (28.6%)1-0 (100%)3-4 (42.9%)5-4 (55.6%)
Guardians68-67 (50.4%)14-23 (37.8%)9-10 (47.4%)14-15 (48.3%)31-19 (62%)
Ryan Pepiot10-18 (35.7%)4-7 (36.4%)1-2 (33.3%)1-2 (33.3%)4-7 (36.4%)
Rays67-66 (50.4%)19-30 (38.8%)8-8 (50%)8-10 (44.4%)32-18 (64%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Logan Allen11-14 (44%)5-2 (71.4%)0-1 (0%)4-3 (57.1%)2-7 (22.2%)
Guardians57-81 (41.3%)18-19 (48.6%)11-8 (57.9%)11-18 (37.9%)16-34 (32%)
Ryan Pepiot14-14 (50%)7-4 (63.6%)2-1 (66.7%)2-1 (66.7%)3-8 (27.3%)
Rays72-67 (51.8%)28-21 (57.1%)6-10 (37.5%)12-6 (66.7%)24-26 (48%)


Batting Matchup
GuardiansRays
138TG139
3.9R/G4.6
143HR157
0.224AVG0.253
106SB175
30CS44
GuardiansRays
0.145ISO0.152
0.264BABIP0.303
0.294OBP0.314
0.369SLG0.404
0.29wOBA0.313
84wRC+97
GuardiansRays
8.3BB%7.7
22.4K%22.9
0.37BB/K0.34
6.6Barrel%7.7
35.7HardHit%40.3
8.7WAR13.2

Pitching Matchup
Logan AllenRyan Pepiot
26G28
25GS28
134.1IP158
5.2IP/G5.6
7W10
10L10
71.8LOB%77.7
Logan AllenRyan Pepiot
7.03K/98.83
3.82BB/93.13
8.2K/BB%15.7
42.5GB%38.7
40.8FB%42.2
1.21HR/91.48
10.7HR/FB%14.7
Logan AllenRyan Pepiot
0.296BABIP0.256
4.42ERA3.7
4.72xERA4.01
4.7FIP4.46
4.88xFIP4.04
1.44WHIP1.15
4.89SIERA4.02
1.1WAR1.9

Bullpen Matchup
GuardiansRays
3.32BPU/G3.13
3.5IP/G3.4
30W22
22L24
39SV32
18BS22
72.7LOB%76.2
GuardiansRays
8.87K/99.82
3.4BB/93.1
14.3K/BB%17.8
38.2GB%41.5
40.2FB%38.6
0.84HR/91.24
8.3HR/FB%13.3
GuardiansRays
0.299BABIP0.289
3.64ERA3.67
3.67FIP3.92
4.18xFIP3.72
1.29WHIP1.23
3.81SIERA3.39
4.9WAR4.6