Nationals @ Royals [ Royals -172 / 9 ]

Nationals | 47-72 (39.5%) Jake Irvin (R) | 8-7 | WHIP: 1.34 | ERA: 4.90
Royals | 59-60 (49.6%) Seth Lugo (R) | 8-6 | WHIP: 1.20 | ERA: 3.46

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Nationals
Starting Pitcher:
1/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:-2
Est. fair odds: +125 to +141
Implied win prob: 41.49% to 44.44%
Royals
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:2
Est. fair odds: -125 to -141
Implied win prob: 55.56% to 58.51%
Nationals Situational Notes

Royals Situational Notes

Nationals Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
8/14WSN [ 0 ]TBD (-)WSN -
PHI -		-PHI [ 0 ]TBD (-)
8/13KCR [ 0 ]Seth Lugo (R)WSN +144
KCR -172		9WSN [ 0 ]Jake Irvin (R)
8/12KCR [ 8 ]Michael Wacha (R)WSN +150
KCR -198		8.5WSN [ 5 ]Mitchell Parker (L)
8/11KCR [ 7 ]Bailey Falter (L)WSN +124
KCR -142		9WSN [ 4 ]Cade Cavalli (R)
8/10SFG [ 0 ]Justin Verlander (R)WSN +120
SFG -158		8WSN [ 8 ]MacKenzie Gore (L)
8/9SFG [ 2 ]Carson Whisenhunt (L)WSN +142
SFG -168		8WSN [ 4 ]Brad Lord (R)
8/8SFG [ 5 ]Matt Gage (L)WSN +142
SFG -168		8.5WSN [ 0 ]Jake Irvin (R)
8/7WSN [ 0 ]Mitchell Parker (L)WSN +114
ATH -148		9ATH [ 6 ]Jacob Lopez (L)
8/6WSN [ 2 ]Cade Cavalli (R)WSN +110
ATH -144		9ATH [ 1 ]Jeffrey Springs (L)
8/5WSN [ 7 ]MacKenzie Gore (L)WSN -130
ATH +114		8.5ATH [ 16 ]Luis Severino (R)
Royals Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
8/15KCR [ 0 ]Noah Cameron (L)KCR -
CHW -		-CHW [ 0 ]TBD (-)
8/13KCR [ 0 ]Seth Lugo (R)KCR -172
WSN +144		9WSN [ 0 ]Jake Irvin (R)
8/12KCR [ 8 ]Michael Wacha (R)KCR -178
WSN +166		8.5WSN [ 5 ]Mitchell Parker (L)
8/11KCR [ 7 ]Bailey Falter (L)KCR -146
WSN +120		9WSN [ 4 ]Cade Cavalli (R)
8/10MIN [ 5 ]Jose Urena (R)KCR -120
MIN -108		9.5KCR [ 3 ]Ryan Bergert (R)
8/9MIN [ 0 ]Bailey Ober (R)KCR -118
MIN -100		8.5KCR [ 2 ]Noah Cameron (L)
8/8MIN [ 9 ]Joe Ryan (R)KCR +116
MIN -136		8.5KCR [ 4 ]Seth Lugo (R)
8/6BOS [ 3 ]Dustin May (R)KCR +118
BOS -138		9KCR [ 7 ]Michael Wacha (R)
8/5BOS [ 6 ]Garrett Crochet (L)KCR +198
BOS -250		8.5KCR [ 2 ]Ryan Bergert (R)
8/4BOS [ 8 ]Brayan Bello (R)KCR +134
BOS -162		9.5KCR [ 5 ]Bailey Falter (L)

Jake Irvin Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/8SFG [ 5 ]WSN [ 0 ]1428.55.33308234Matt Gage (L)
8/2WSN [ 2 ]MIL [ 8 ]1488.54228155Brandon Woodruff (R)
7/27MIN [ 2 ]WSN [ 7 ]1389.57205122Cole Sands (R)
7/21WSN [ 10 ]CIN [ 8 ]11590000000Brady Singer (R)
7/13MIL [ 8 ]WSN [ 1 ]000000000Freddy Peralta (R)
3.271.40.44.20.822.2
Seth Lugo Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/8MIN [ 9 ]KCR [ 4 ]1168.54129277Joe Ryan (R)
8/3TOR [ 4 ]KCR [ 7 ]12084.67344022Chris Bassitt (R)
7/29KCR [ 9 ]ATL [ 6 ]-1309.55.67547233Erick Fedde (R)
7/23CHC [ 4 ]KCR [ 8 ]1449.56624022Colin Rea (R)
7/18MIA [ 8 ]KCR [ 7 ]-12086508255Sandy Alcantara (R)
5.2742.46.41.23.83.8
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Jake Irvin F512-10-2 (54.5%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)6-3-1 (66.7%)5-7-1 (41.7%)
Jake Irvin12-12 (50%)0-1 (0%)0-0 (-)5-5 (50%)7-6 (53.8%)
Seth Lugo F57-10-5 (41.2%)1-2-2 (33.3%)0-1-1 (0%)3-2-1 (60%)3-5-1 (37.5%)
Seth Lugo12-10 (54.5%)4-1 (80%)0-2 (0%)3-3 (50%)5-4 (55.6%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Jake Irvin F512-9-0 (57.1%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)6-2-0 (75%)6-7-0 (46.2%)
Jake Irvin14-10-0 (58.3%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)7-3-0 (70%)6-7-0 (46.2%)
Seth Lugo F56-13-1 (31.6%)0-5-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)3-3-0 (50%)2-4-1 (33.3%)
Seth Lugo10-12-0 (45.5%)1-4-0 (20%)2-0-0 (100%)3-3-0 (50%)4-5-0 (44.4%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Nationals vs. RHP F530-45-10 (40%)0-4-3 (0%)1-1-2 (50%)14-15-1 (48.3%)15-23-4 (39.5%)
Nationals vs. RHP35-50 (41.2%)1-6 (14.3%)3-1 (75%)13-17 (43.3%)18-24 (42.9%)
Royals vs. RHP F537-43-17 (46.3%)10-11-7 (47.6%)3-4-2 (42.9%)4-11-2 (26.7%)20-17-5 (54.1%)
Royals vs. RHP47-50 (48.5%)16-12 (57.1%)4-5 (44.4%)5-12 (29.4%)22-20 (52.4%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Nationals vs. RHP F539-35-7 (52.7%)1-4-0 (20%)2-2-0 (50%)16-11-2 (59.3%)18-18-5 (50%)
Nationals vs. RHP50-32-3 (61%)2-5-0 (28.6%)3-1-0 (75%)20-10-0 (66.7%)23-16-3 (59%)
Royals vs. RHP F533-56-4 (37.1%)7-19-1 (26.9%)4-4-1 (50%)7-10-0 (41.2%)15-22-2 (40.5%)
Royals vs. RHP44-53-0 (45.4%)12-16-0 (42.9%)5-4-0 (55.6%)7-10-0 (41.2%)20-22-0 (47.6%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Jake Irvin14-10 (58.3%)0-1 (0%)0-0 (-)6-4 (60%)8-5 (61.5%)
Nationals58-58 (50%)1-10 (9.1%)2-3 (40%)22-23 (48.9%)33-22 (60%)
Seth Lugo11-11 (50%)1-4 (20%)0-2 (0%)4-2 (66.7%)6-3 (66.7%)
Royals61-58 (51.3%)12-25 (32.4%)5-5 (50%)10-11 (47.6%)34-17 (66.7%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Jake Irvin16-8 (66.7%)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)8-2 (80%)7-6 (53.8%)
Nationals63-56 (52.9%)6-5 (54.5%)1-4 (20%)25-20 (55.6%)29-26 (52.7%)
Seth Lugo8-14 (36.4%)1-4 (20%)1-1 (50%)2-4 (33.3%)4-5 (44.4%)
Royals49-71 (40.8%)13-24 (35.1%)5-5 (50%)7-14 (33.3%)23-28 (45.1%)


Batting Matchup
NationalsRoyals
119TG120
4.3R/G3.7
113HR107
0.244AVG0.244
99SB93
37CS35
NationalsRoyals
0.143ISO0.142
0.289BABIP0.28
0.309OBP0.303
0.387SLG0.386
0.305wOBA0.3
94wRC+87
NationalsRoyals
7.7BB%6.8
21K%18.6
0.37BB/K0.37
7.7Barrel%7.3
40.9HardHit%39.6
6.4WAR7.8

Pitching Matchup
Jake IrvinSeth Lugo
24G22
24GS22
136IP127.1
5.7IP/G5.8
8W8
7L6
71.5LOB%83.1
Jake IrvinSeth Lugo
6.02K/97.63
2.85BB/93.04
8.2K/BB%12.5
43.9GB%39.5
38.1FB%41.4
1.72HR/91.48
15.3HR/FB%14
Jake IrvinSeth Lugo
0.268BABIP0.258
4.9ERA3.46
5.32xERA5.05
5.29FIP4.66
4.69xFIP4.3
1.34WHIP1.2
4.8SIERA4.33
0.2WAR0.9

Bullpen Matchup
NationalsRoyals
3.5BPU/G3.33
3.5IP/G3.4
19W24
16L18
22SV34
14BS15
65.5LOB%73.1
NationalsRoyals
7.95K/97.81
4.22BB/93.3
9.1K/BB%11.8
44.5GB%44.7
35.5FB%36.4
1.28HR/90.98
13.1HR/FB%10.2
NationalsRoyals
0.319BABIP0.285
5.89ERA3.81
4.86FIP4
4.64xFIP4.2
1.56WHIP1.29
4.3SIERA3.97
-0.3WAR2.6