Diamondbacks @ Rangers [ Rangers -148 / 8.5 ]

Diamondbacks | 58-61 (48.7%) Zac Gallen (R) | 9-12 | WHIP: 1.35 | ERA: 5.31
Rangers | 61-60 (50.4%) Merrill Kelly (R) | 9-7 | WHIP: 1.08 | ERA: 3.38

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Diamondbacks
Starting Pitcher:
1/4
Bullpen:
0/3
Team Batting:
3/3
Matchup:-1
Est. fair odds: +111 to +124
Implied win prob: 44.64% to 47.39%
Rangers
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
0/3
Matchup:1
Est. fair odds: -111 to -124
Implied win prob: 52.61% to 55.36%
Diamondbacks Situational Notes

Rangers Situational Notes
Home stand (7th consecutive game at home or more)

Diamondbacks Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
8/14COL [ 0 ]TBD (-)ARI -
COL -		-ARI [ 0 ]TBD (-)
8/13TEX [ 0 ]Merrill Kelly (R)ARI +126
TEX -148		8.5ARI [ 0 ]Zac Gallen (R)
8/12TEX [ 2 ]Jack Leiter (R)ARI +120
TEX -152		8.5ARI [ 3 ]Anthony DeSclafani (R)
8/11TEX [ 7 ]Nathan Eovaldi (R)ARI +144
TEX -166		7.5ARI [ 6 ]Ryne Nelson (R)
8/10ARI [ 13 ]Brandon Pfaadt (R)ARI -255
COL +235		9COL [ 6 ]Tanner Gordon (R)
8/9ARI [ 6 ]Eduardo Rodriguez (L)ARI -225
COL +188		9.5COL [ 5 ]Bradley Blalock (R)
8/8ARI [ 6 ]Zac Gallen (R)ARI -225
COL +188		9COL [ 1 ]Austin Gomber (L)
8/6ARI [ 2 ]Anthony DeSclafani (R)ARI +126
SDP -136		9.5SDP [ 3 ]Nestor Cortes (L)
8/5ARI [ 5 ]Ryne Nelson (R)ARI +114
SDP -126		9SDP [ 10 ]Yu Darvish (R)
8/4ARI [ 6 ]Brandon Pfaadt (R)ARI +116
SDP -130		9.5SDP [ 2 ]JP Sears (L)
Rangers Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
8/15TOR [ 0 ]TBD (-)TEX -
TOR -		-TEX [ 0 ]Jacob deGrom (R)
8/13TEX [ 0 ]Merrill Kelly (R)TEX -148
ARI +126		8.5ARI [ 0 ]Zac Gallen (R)
8/12TEX [ 2 ]Jack Leiter (R)TEX -142
ARI +128		8.5ARI [ 3 ]Anthony DeSclafani (R)
8/11TEX [ 7 ]Nathan Eovaldi (R)TEX -172
ARI +140		7.5ARI [ 6 ]Ryne Nelson (R)
8/10TEX [ 2 ]Patrick Corbin (L)TEX +130
PHI -164		7.5PHI [ 4 ]Zack Wheeler (R)
8/9TEX [ 2 ]Jacob deGrom (R)TEX -134
PHI +114		7PHI [ 3 ]Jesus Luzardo (L)
8/8TEX [ 1 ]Merrill Kelly (R)TEX +112
PHI -132		7.5PHI [ 9 ]Cristopher Sanchez (L)
8/6TEX [ 2 ]Jack Leiter (R)TEX +118
NYY -132		8NYY [ 3 ]Carlos Rodon (L)
8/5TEX [ 2 ]Nathan Eovaldi (R)TEX -134
NYY +108		8NYY [ 0 ]Will Warren (R)
8/4TEX [ 8 ]Patrick Corbin (L)TEX +130
NYY -138		8NYY [ 5 ]Max Fried (L)

Zac Gallen Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/8ARI [ 6 ]COL [ 1 ]-22596634011Austin Gomber (L)
8/2ATH [ 2 ]ARI [ 7 ]-104106309022JT Ginn (R)
7/27PIT [ 6 ]ARI [ 0 ]1267.56515044Paul Skenes (R)
7/21ARI [ 3 ]HOU [ 6 ]-14090000000Colton Gordon (L)
7/12LAA [ 10 ]ARI [ 5 ]1068.55328166Yusei Kikuchi (L)
4.63.41.25.20.22.62.6
Merrill Kelly Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/8TEX [ 1 ]PHI [ 9 ]1127.54.33455244Cristopher Sanchez (L)
8/2SEA [ 4 ]TEX [ 6 ]1047.55.67604022Luis Castillo (R)
7/26PIT [ 2 ]ARI [ 0 ]-1368.56.67316112Andrew Heaney (L)
7/20ARI [ 5 ]STL [ 3 ]-1568.50000000Miles Mikolas (R)
7/13LAA [ 1 ]ARI [ 5 ]000000000Jose Soriano (R)
552.54.5133
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Zac Gallen F512-11-1 (52.2%)5-5-0 (50%)2-1-1 (66.7%)0-2-0 (0%)5-3-0 (62.5%)
Zac Gallen11-13 (45.8%)5-5 (50%)1-3 (25%)0-2 (0%)5-3 (62.5%)
Merrill Kelly F512-5-7 (70.6%)5-2-2 (71.4%)3-1-0 (75%)1-1-1 (50%)3-1-4 (75%)
Merrill Kelly12-12 (50%)4-5 (44.4%)3-1 (75%)1-2 (33.3%)4-4 (50%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Zac Gallen F513-10-1 (56.5%)6-4-0 (60%)2-2-0 (50%)0-2-0 (0%)5-2-1 (71.4%)
Zac Gallen12-11-1 (52.2%)5-4-1 (55.6%)2-2-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)4-4-0 (50%)
Merrill Kelly F513-10-0 (56.5%)7-2-0 (77.8%)2-2-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)2-5-0 (28.6%)
Merrill Kelly11-12-1 (47.8%)6-2-1 (75%)1-3-0 (25%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-5-0 (37.5%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Diamondbacks vs. RHP F549-28-10 (63.6%)23-10-3 (69.7%)8-7-3 (53.3%)6-1-1 (85.7%)12-10-3 (54.5%)
Diamondbacks vs. RHP47-40 (54%)19-17 (52.8%)11-7 (61.1%)5-3 (62.5%)12-13 (48%)
Rangers vs. RHP F548-29-16 (62.3%)16-7-8 (69.6%)10-7-1 (58.8%)5-5-4 (50%)17-10-3 (63%)
Rangers vs. RHP54-39 (58.1%)24-7 (77.4%)8-10 (44.4%)6-8 (42.9%)16-14 (53.3%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Diamondbacks vs. RHP F548-34-3 (58.5%)21-14-1 (60%)9-9-0 (50%)5-3-0 (62.5%)13-8-2 (61.9%)
Diamondbacks vs. RHP45-39-3 (53.6%)21-13-2 (61.8%)9-9-0 (50%)3-5-0 (37.5%)12-12-1 (50%)
Rangers vs. RHP F541-47-2 (46.6%)10-19-0 (34.5%)11-6-0 (64.7%)4-9-1 (30.8%)16-13-1 (55.2%)
Rangers vs. RHP38-53-2 (41.8%)9-21-1 (30%)10-8-0 (55.6%)4-10-0 (28.6%)15-14-1 (51.7%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Zac Gallen10-14 (41.7%)4-6 (40%)1-3 (25%)0-2 (0%)5-3 (62.5%)
Diamondbacks58-60 (49.2%)20-27 (42.6%)9-16 (36%)7-6 (53.8%)22-11 (66.7%)
Merrill Kelly13-11 (54.2%)3-6 (33.3%)2-2 (50%)1-2 (33.3%)7-1 (87.5%)
Rangers70-55 (56%)22-18 (55%)7-13 (35%)15-9 (62.5%)26-15 (63.4%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Zac Gallen15-9 (62.5%)6-4 (60%)2-2 (50%)1-1 (50%)6-2 (75%)
Diamondbacks67-53 (55.8%)28-19 (59.6%)12-13 (48%)8-5 (61.5%)17-16 (51.5%)
Merrill Kelly13-11 (54.2%)6-3 (66.7%)1-3 (25%)2-1 (66.7%)4-4 (50%)
Rangers54-72 (42.9%)16-24 (40%)10-10 (50%)10-14 (41.7%)18-23 (43.9%)


Batting Matchup
DiamondbacksRangers
120TG121
4.9R/G4.1
168HR125
0.251AVG0.232
80SB104
29CS27
DiamondbacksRangers
0.19ISO0.143
0.284BABIP0.276
0.326OBP0.3
0.441SLG0.375
0.331wOBA0.295
111wRC+88
DiamondbacksRangers
9BB%8
20.6K%22.5
0.44BB/K0.36
9.1Barrel%8.6
41.7HardHit%40.8
21.6WAR10.3

Pitching Matchup
Zac GallenMerrill Kelly
24G24
24GS24
139IP138.2
5.8IP/G5.8
9W9
12L7
65.7LOB%71.8
Zac GallenMerrill Kelly
8.42K/98.5
3.24BB/92.79
13.4K/BB%15.7
42.7GB%44.7
36.6FB%36.6
1.49HR/91.04
15.3HR/FB%11.5
Zac GallenMerrill Kelly
0.294BABIP0.248
5.31ERA3.38
4.76xERA4.08
4.55FIP3.69
4.03xFIP3.7
1.35WHIP1.08
4.17SIERA3.88
0.5WAR2.3

Bullpen Matchup
DiamondbacksRangers
3.04BPU/G3.13
3.4IP/G3.6
16W18
23L28
32SV29
22BS22
69.7LOB%73.3
DiamondbacksRangers
8.18K/98.27
3.65BB/93.17
11.5K/BB%13.6
44.1GB%40.7
36.3FB%40.2
1.14HR/90.91
11.8HR/FB%9
DiamondbacksRangers
0.309BABIP0.273
4.77ERA3.34
4.32FIP3.75
4.29xFIP4.14
1.42WHIP1.2
4.02SIERA3.81
-0.1WAR4