Mariners @ Orioles [ Orioles +120 / 8.5 ]

Mariners | 67-53 (55.8%) Logan Gilbert (R) | 3-4 | WHIP: 0.98 | ERA: 3.35
Orioles | 53-67 (44.2%) Trevor Rogers (L) | 5-2 | WHIP: 0.83 | ERA: 1.44

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Mariners
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:2
Est. fair odds: -125 to -141
Implied win prob: 55.56% to 58.51%
Orioles
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:-2
Est. fair odds: +125 to +141
Implied win prob: 41.49% to 44.44%
Mariners Situational Notes

Orioles Situational Notes

Mariners Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
8/14BAL [ 0 ]Tomoyuki Sugano (R)SEA -
BAL -		-SEA [ 0 ]Logan Evans (R)
8/13BAL [ 0 ]Trevor Rogers (L)SEA -142
BAL +120		8.5SEA [ 0 ]Logan Gilbert (R)
8/12BAL [ 0 ]Dean Kremer (R)SEA -164
BAL +134		9SEA [ 1 ]George Kirby (R)
8/10SEA [ 6 ]Bryan Woo (R)SEA -190
TBR +152		7.5TBR [ 3 ]Adrian Houser (R)
8/9SEA [ 7 ]Logan Evans (R)SEA -142
TBR +120		7.5TBR [ 4 ]Joe Boyle (R)
8/8SEA [ 3 ]Luis Castillo (R)SEA -130
TBR +110		7TBR [ 2 ]Drew Rasmussen (R)
8/7SEA [ 4 ]Logan Gilbert (R)SEA -290
CHW +240		7.5CHW [ 3 ]Shane Smith (R)
8/6SEA [ 8 ]George Kirby (R)SEA -260
CHW +220		7.5CHW [ 6 ]Jonathan Cannon (R)
8/5SEA [ 8 ]Bryan Woo (R)SEA -250
CHW +205		7.5CHW [ 3 ]Davis Martin (R)
8/3SEA [ 5 ]Logan Evans (R)SEA +124
TEX -142		7.5TEX [ 4 ]Jacob deGrom (R)
Orioles Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
8/14BAL [ 0 ]Tomoyuki Sugano (R)BAL -
SEA -		-SEA [ 0 ]Logan Evans (R)
8/13BAL [ 0 ]Trevor Rogers (L)BAL +120
SEA -142		8.5SEA [ 0 ]Logan Gilbert (R)
8/12BAL [ 0 ]Dean Kremer (R)BAL +138
SEA -158		9SEA [ 1 ]George Kirby (R)
8/10BAL [ 2 ]Cade Povich (L)BAL -132
ATH +102		9.5ATH [ 3 ]Luis Morales (R)
8/9BAL [ 3 ]Brandon Young (R)BAL -116
ATH -102		9.5ATH [ 11 ]Jack Perkins (R)
8/8BAL [ 3 ]Tomoyuki Sugano (R)BAL -118
ATH -100		9.5ATH [ 2 ]JT Ginn (R)
8/6PHI [ 1 ]Ranger Suarez (L)BAL +134
PHI -184		8BAL [ 5 ]Trevor Rogers (L)
8/5PHI [ 5 ]Taijuan Walker (R)BAL +120
PHI -142		9.5BAL [ 0 ]Dean Kremer (R)
8/4PHI [ 13 ]Jesus Luzardo (L)BAL +168
PHI -205		9BAL [ 3 ]Cade Povich (L)
8/3CHC [ 5 ]Colin Rea (R)BAL +152
CHC -184		8BAL [ 3 ]Brandon Young (R)

Logan Gilbert Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/7SEA [ 4 ]CHW [ 3 ]-2907.55632111Shane Smith (R)
8/1SEA [ 4 ]TEX [ 3 ]-1907.56705033Jack Leiter (R)
7/27LAA [ 4 ]SEA [ 1 ]-17895733144Kyle Hendricks (R)
7/22SEA [ 1 ]MIL [ 0 ]-1266.50000000Jacob Misiorowski (R)
7/13DET [ 4 ]SEA [ 8 ]000000000Jack Flaherty (R)
3.241.220.41.61.6
Trevor Rogers Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/6PHI [ 1 ]BAL [ 5 ]13486628011Ranger Suarez (L)
8/1CHC [ 1 ]BAL [ 0 ]1247.58804011Cade Horton (R)
7/26BAL [ 18 ]COL [ 0 ]-2609.57511000Antonio Senzatela (R)
7/20TBR [ 3 ]BAL [ 5 ]10690000000Ryan Pepiot (R)
7/12BAL [ 0 ]MIA [ 6 ]006.67822011Janson Junk (R)
5.535.41300.60.6
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Logan Gilbert F55-8-3 (38.5%)3-6-1 (33.3%)2-1-1 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-1 (0%)
Logan Gilbert11-5 (68.8%)7-3 (70%)3-1 (75%)0-0 (-)1-1 (50%)
Trevor Rogers F56-1-3 (85.7%)2-0-1 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)3-1-1 (75%)
Trevor Rogers6-4 (60%)2-1 (66.7%)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)3-2 (60%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Logan Gilbert F54-9-2 (30.8%)2-7-0 (22.2%)2-1-1 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-1 (0%)
Logan Gilbert6-8-2 (42.9%)1-7-2 (12.5%)3-1-0 (75%)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)
Trevor Rogers F53-5-0 (37.5%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)2-2-0 (50%)
Trevor Rogers4-6-0 (40%)1-2-0 (33.3%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)1-4-0 (20%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Mariners vs. LHP F516-9-6 (64%)5-3-3 (62.5%)4-2-2 (66.7%)2-1-0 (66.7%)5-2-1 (71.4%)
Mariners vs. LHP20-11 (64.5%)7-4 (63.6%)5-3 (62.5%)2-1 (66.7%)6-2 (75%)
Orioles vs. RHP F538-34-10 (52.8%)17-10-2 (63%)2-5-1 (28.6%)6-2-0 (75%)13-17-5 (43.3%)
Orioles vs. RHP35-47 (42.7%)14-15 (48.3%)3-5 (37.5%)4-4 (50%)13-22 (37.1%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Mariners vs. LHP F510-16-3 (38.5%)1-8-2 (11.1%)4-3-1 (57.1%)1-1-0 (50%)4-4-0 (50%)
Mariners vs. LHP10-19-2 (34.5%)4-5-2 (44.4%)3-5-0 (37.5%)0-3-0 (0%)3-5-0 (37.5%)
Orioles vs. RHP F540-32-2 (55.6%)19-9-0 (67.9%)3-4-0 (42.9%)6-2-0 (75%)12-16-2 (42.9%)
Orioles vs. RHP35-43-4 (44.9%)17-11-1 (60.7%)2-6-0 (25%)4-4-0 (50%)10-22-3 (31.3%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Logan Gilbert5-11 (31.3%)2-8 (20%)2-2 (50%)0-0 (-)1-1 (50%)
Mariners52-70 (42.6%)19-36 (34.5%)11-20 (35.5%)7-2 (77.8%)15-12 (55.6%)
Trevor Rogers7-2 (77.8%)2-1 (66.7%)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)4-1 (80%)
Orioles53-64 (45.3%)15-29 (34.1%)5-8 (38.5%)9-5 (64.3%)24-22 (52.2%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Logan Gilbert8-8 (50%)4-6 (40%)3-1 (75%)0-0 (-)1-1 (50%)
Mariners61-64 (48.8%)22-33 (40%)18-13 (58.1%)2-7 (22.2%)18-9 (66.7%)
Trevor Rogers2-8 (20%)1-2 (33.3%)0-1 (0%)0-0 (-)1-4 (20%)
Orioles56-63 (47.1%)21-23 (47.7%)9-4 (69.2%)5-9 (35.7%)21-25 (45.7%)


Batting Matchup
MarinersOrioles
120TG119
4.6R/G4.2
171HR144
0.243AVG0.239
126SB81
29CS29
MarinersOrioles
0.167ISO0.164
0.286BABIP0.285
0.32OBP0.303
0.41SLG0.404
0.319wOBA0.308
109wRC+96
MarinersOrioles
8.9BB%7.3
23.2K%23.5
0.38BB/K0.31
9.3Barrel%9.1
42.4HardHit%42.7
18.1WAR9.5

Pitching Matchup
Logan GilbertTrevor Rogers
16G10
16GS10
83.1IP62.1
5.2IP/G6.2
3W5
4L2
73.7LOB%85.7
Logan GilbertTrevor Rogers
12.74K/97.8
2.27BB/92.17
28.9K/BB%16.5
42.4GB%47.9
39.3FB%37.6
1.19HR/90.29
14.7HR/FB%3.2
Logan GilbertTrevor Rogers
0.275BABIP0.212
3.35ERA1.44
2.68xERA3.25
2.89FIP2.56
2.53xFIP3.65
0.98WHIP0.83
2.55SIERA3.77
2.1WAR2.1

Bullpen Matchup
MarinersOrioles
3.35BPU/G3.38
3.6IP/G3.6
27W17
18L24
32SV28
20BS15
72.7LOB%70.5
MarinersOrioles
8.38K/99.63
3.53BB/94.08
12.7K/BB%14.1
44.7GB%43.1
37.6FB%38.1
1.05HR/91.31
10.9HR/FB%13.7
MarinersOrioles
0.28BABIP0.312
3.61ERA4.74
4.12FIP4.33
4.21xFIP4.05
1.28WHIP1.43
3.89SIERA3.76
1.4WAR1.6