Braves @ Mets [ Mets -210 / 9 ]

Braves | 52-68 (43.3%) Carlos Carrasco (R) | 2-2 | WHIP: 1.58 | ERA: 6.18
Mets | 64-55 (53.8%) David Peterson (L) | 7-5 | WHIP: 1.23 | ERA: 2.98

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Braves
Starting Pitcher:
1/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:-2
Est. fair odds: +125 to +141
Implied win prob: 41.49% to 44.44%
Mets
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:2
Est. fair odds: -125 to -141
Implied win prob: 55.56% to 58.51%
Braves Situational Notes

Mets Situational Notes

Braves Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
8/14NYM [ 0 ]Kodai Senga (R)ATL -
NYM -		-ATL [ 0 ]Bryce Elder (R)
8/13NYM [ 0 ]David Peterson (L)ATL +176
NYM -210		9ATL [ 0 ]Carlos Carrasco (R)
8/12NYM [ 13 ]Clay Holmes (R)ATL +116
NYM -138		8ATL [ 5 ]Spencer Strider (R)
8/10ATL [ 7 ]Joey Wentz (L)ATL -132
MIA +112		8.5MIA [ 1 ]Cal Quantrill (R)
8/9ATL [ 8 ]Erick Fedde (R)ATL -110
MIA -106		8.5MIA [ 6 ]Sandy Alcantara (R)
8/9ATL [ 7 ]Hurston Waldrep (R)ATL -122
MIA +104		8.5MIA [ 1 ]Ryan Gusto (R)
8/8ATL [ 1 ]Bryce Elder (R)ATL +108
MIA -126		8MIA [ 5 ]Edward Cabrera (R)
8/7ATL [ 8 ]Carlos Carrasco (R)ATL -100
MIA -138		8MIA [ 6 ]Eury Perez (R)
8/6ATL [ 4 ]Spencer Strider (R)ATL -136
MIL +106		8MIL [ 5 ]Jose Quintana (L)
8/5ATL [ 2 ]Joey Wentz (L)ATL +124
MIL -144		8MIL [ 7 ]Freddy Peralta (R)
Mets Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
8/14NYM [ 0 ]Kodai Senga (R)NYM -
ATL -		-ATL [ 0 ]Bryce Elder (R)
8/13NYM [ 0 ]David Peterson (L)NYM -210
ATL +176		9ATL [ 0 ]Carlos Carrasco (R)
8/12NYM [ 13 ]Clay Holmes (R)NYM -136
ATL +118		8ATL [ 5 ]Spencer Strider (R)
8/10MIL [ 7 ]Quinn Priester (R)NYM -104
MIL -116		8NYM [ 6 ]Sean Manaea (L)
8/9MIL [ 7 ]Tobias Myers (R)NYM -102
MIL -116		9NYM [ 4 ]Reed Garrett (R)
8/8MIL [ 3 ]Brandon Woodruff (R)NYM +120
MIL -142		8NYM [ 2 ]Kodai Senga (R)
8/6NYM [ 1 ]David Peterson (L)NYM -168
CLE +150		7.5CLE [ 4 ]Gavin Williams (R)
8/5NYM [ 2 ]Clay Holmes (R)NYM -188
CLE +136		8.5CLE [ 3 ]Logan Allen (L)
8/4NYM [ 6 ]Sean Manaea (L)NYM -178
CLE +172		8CLE [ 7 ]Slade Cecconi (R)
8/3NYM [ 4 ]Frankie Montas (R)NYM -164
SFG +138		8.5SFG [ 12 ]Carson Whisenhunt (L)

Carlos Carrasco Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/7ATL [ 8 ]MIA [ 6 ]-10085.67229166Eury Perez (R)
7/31CIN [ 11 ]ATL [ 12 ]13296527133Andrew Abbott (L)
4/30BAL [ 5 ]NYY [ 4 ]-1089.53.33508244Cade Povich (L)
4/25NYY [ 2 ]TOR [ 4 ]-14895223000Jose Berrios (R)
4/19TBR [ 10 ]NYY [ 8 ]1068.54126044Shane Baz (R)
5.843.52814.54.5
David Peterson Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/6NYM [ 1 ]CLE [ 4 ]-1687.56725244Gavin Williams (R)
8/1NYM [ 3 ]SFG [ 4 ]-1447.56424022Robbie Ray (L)
7/26SFG [ 1 ]NYM [ 2 ]-1107.56438011Robbie Ray (L)
7/20NYM [ 3 ]CIN [ 2 ]-13680000000Andrew Abbott (L)
7/10BAL [ 3 ]NYM [ 1 ]-1449.57605011Charlie Morton (R)
54.21.44.40.41.61.6
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Carlos Carrasco F53-4-1 (42.9%)2-0-1 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)1-3-0 (25%)
Carlos Carrasco4-4 (50%)2-1 (66.7%)0-0 (-)1-0 (100%)1-3 (25%)
David Peterson F510-7-5 (58.8%)6-2-3 (75%)2-3-0 (40%)0-0-1 (-)2-2-1 (50%)
David Peterson12-10 (54.5%)9-2 (81.8%)2-3 (40%)1-0 (100%)0-5 (0%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Carlos Carrasco F55-2-1 (71.4%)1-1-1 (50%)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)3-1-0 (75%)
Carlos Carrasco4-4-0 (50%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)2-2-0 (50%)
David Peterson F55-14-1 (26.3%)1-9-0 (10%)2-3-0 (40%)0-0-1 (-)2-2-0 (50%)
David Peterson7-14-1 (33.3%)2-8-1 (20%)2-3-0 (40%)0-1-0 (0%)3-2-0 (60%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Braves vs. LHP F510-12-5 (45.5%)3-6-3 (33.3%)4-2-1 (66.7%)0-1-0 (0%)3-3-1 (50%)
Braves vs. LHP13-14 (48.1%)6-6 (50%)4-3 (57.1%)0-1 (0%)3-4 (42.9%)
Mets vs. RHP F544-32-9 (57.9%)22-11-3 (66.7%)9-11-4 (45%)3-1-1 (75%)10-8-1 (55.6%)
Mets vs. RHP46-39 (54.1%)25-11 (69.4%)12-12 (50%)2-3 (40%)7-12 (36.8%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Braves vs. LHP F59-15-1 (37.5%)1-9-1 (10%)5-2-0 (71.4%)0-0-0 (-)3-4-0 (42.9%)
Braves vs. LHP12-14-1 (46.2%)5-6-1 (45.5%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-1-0 (0%)4-3-0 (57.1%)
Mets vs. RHP F534-46-2 (42.5%)15-19-1 (44.1%)11-12-0 (47.8%)1-3-1 (25%)6-12-0 (33.3%)
Mets vs. RHP40-44-1 (47.6%)18-17-1 (51.4%)12-12-0 (50%)2-3-0 (40%)7-12-0 (36.8%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Carlos Carrasco5-3 (62.5%)2-1 (66.7%)0-0 (-)1-0 (100%)2-2 (50%)
Braves52-68 (43.3%)22-30 (42.3%)13-21 (38.2%)3-5 (37.5%)14-12 (53.8%)
David Peterson8-14 (36.4%)4-7 (36.4%)1-4 (20%)1-0 (100%)2-3 (40%)
Mets58-60 (49.2%)22-30 (42.3%)13-18 (41.9%)6-2 (75%)17-10 (63%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Carlos Carrasco4-4 (50%)1-2 (33.3%)0-0 (-)1-0 (100%)2-2 (50%)
Braves65-55 (54.2%)28-24 (53.8%)18-16 (52.9%)4-4 (50%)15-11 (57.7%)
David Peterson7-15 (31.8%)4-7 (36.4%)1-4 (20%)0-1 (0%)2-3 (40%)
Mets51-68 (42.9%)26-26 (50%)12-19 (38.7%)2-6 (25%)10-17 (37%)


Batting Matchup
BravesMets
119TG119
4.2R/G4.4
133HR153
0.242AVG0.241
58SB93
14CS10
BravesMets
0.149ISO0.171
0.292BABIP0.276
0.319OBP0.319
0.391SLG0.411
0.312wOBA0.318
99wRC+107
BravesMets
9.4BB%9.1
22.8K%21.2
0.41BB/K0.43
9.2Barrel%10.2
41.3HardHit%44.7
14.6WAR18.6

Pitching Matchup
Carlos CarrascoDavid Peterson
10G22
8GS22
43.2IP133
4.3IP/G6
2W7
2L5
69.1LOB%76.9
Carlos CarrascoDavid Peterson
6.6K/97.58
2.89BB/93.05
9.1K/BB%12.1
36.9GB%54.8
43FB%24.4
1.85HR/90.61
14.1HR/FB%9.6
Carlos CarrascoDavid Peterson
0.324BABIP0.289
6.18ERA2.98
4.92xERA4.28
5.28FIP3.45
4.82xFIP3.64
1.58WHIP1.23
4.76SIERA3.96
0WAR2.5

Bullpen Matchup
BravesMets
3.22BPU/G3.29
3.5IP/G3.9
20W25
22L26
19SV35
16BS20
70.9LOB%72.5
BravesMets
8.85K/99.04
3.53BB/93.53
14.1K/BB%14.3
40.5GB%41.6
39.9FB%37.5
1.06HR/90.89
10.9HR/FB%9.4
BravesMets
0.274BABIP0.295
4.08ERA3.76
3.98FIP3.74
4.09xFIP4.03
1.23WHIP1.29
3.76SIERA3.72
1.5WAR4.3