Pirates @ Brewers [ Brewers -205 / 7.5 ]

Pirates | 51-69 (42.5%) Mitch Keller (R) | 5-10 | WHIP: 1.23 | ERA: 3.86
Brewers | 75-44 (63%) Brandon Woodruff (R) | 4-0 | WHIP: 0.65 | ERA: 2.29

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Pirates
Starting Pitcher:
1/4
Bullpen:
3/3
Team Batting:
0/3
Matchup:-1
Est. fair odds: +111 to +124
Implied win prob: 44.64% to 47.39%
Brewers
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
0/3
Team Batting:
3/3
Matchup:1
Est. fair odds: -111 to -124
Implied win prob: 52.61% to 55.36%
Pirates Situational Notes

Brewers Situational Notes

Pirates Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
8/15CHC [ 0 ]TBD (-)PIT -
CHC -		-PIT [ 0 ]TBD (-)
8/13MIL [ 0 ]Brandon Woodruff (R)PIT +172
MIL -205		7.5PIT [ 0 ]Mitch Keller (R)
8/12MIL [ 14 ]Freddy Peralta (R)PIT -102
MIL -134		7PIT [ 0 ]Paul Skenes (R)
8/11MIL [ 7 ]Jose Quintana (L)PIT +166
MIL -196		8PIT [ 1 ]Andrew Heaney (L)
8/10PIT [ 8 ]Mike Burrows (R)PIT -110
CIN -106		8.5CIN [ 14 ]Zack Littell (R)
8/9PIT [ 1 ]Braxton Ashcraft (R)PIT -108
CIN -108		8CIN [ 2 ]Nick Martinez (R)
8/8PIT [ 3 ]Mitch Keller (R)PIT +106
CIN -124		7.5CIN [ 2 ]Chase Burns (R)
8/7PIT [ 7 ]Paul Skenes (R)PIT -172
CIN +142		7.5CIN [ 0 ]Brady Singer (R)
8/6PIT [ 2 ]Andrew Heaney (L)PIT +126
SFG -154		7.5SFG [ 4 ]Robbie Ray (L)
8/5PIT [ 1 ]Mike Burrows (R)PIT +134
SFG -142		7.5SFG [ 8 ]Logan Webb (R)
Brewers Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
8/15CIN [ 0 ]Nick Martinez (R)MIL -
CIN -		-MIL [ 0 ]TBD (-)
8/13MIL [ 0 ]Brandon Woodruff (R)MIL -205
PIT +172		7.5PIT [ 0 ]Mitch Keller (R)
8/12MIL [ 14 ]Freddy Peralta (R)MIL -116
PIT +114		7PIT [ 0 ]Paul Skenes (R)
8/11MIL [ 7 ]Jose Quintana (L)MIL -198
PIT +164		8PIT [ 1 ]Andrew Heaney (L)
8/10MIL [ 7 ]Quinn Priester (R)MIL -112
NYM -102		8NYM [ 6 ]Sean Manaea (L)
8/9MIL [ 7 ]Tobias Myers (R)MIL -116
NYM -102		9NYM [ 4 ]Reed Garrett (R)
8/8MIL [ 3 ]Brandon Woodruff (R)MIL -142
NYM +120		8NYM [ 2 ]Kodai Senga (R)
8/6ATL [ 4 ]Spencer Strider (R)MIL +116
ATL -124		8MIL [ 5 ]Jose Quintana (L)
8/5ATL [ 2 ]Joey Wentz (L)MIL -146
ATL +122		8MIL [ 7 ]Freddy Peralta (R)
8/4ATL [ 1 ]Erick Fedde (R)MIL -142
ATL +114		8.5MIL [ 3 ]Quinn Priester (R)

Mitch Keller Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/8PIT [ 3 ]CIN [ 2 ]1067.55.67336022Chase Burns (R)
8/3COL [ 5 ]PIT [ 9 ]-15411.55417355Bradley Blalock (R)
7/28SFG [ 5 ]PIT [ 6 ]1127.52335033Carson Whisenhunt (L)
7/22PIT [ 8 ]DET [ 5 ]11080000000Casey Mize (R)
7/13MIN [ 1 ]PIT [ 2 ]000000000Simeon Woods Richardson (R)
2.5321.43.60.622
Brandon Woodruff Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/8MIL [ 3 ]NYM [ 2 ]-14287823222Kodai Senga (R)
8/2WSN [ 2 ]MIL [ 8 ]-1768.56811122Jake Irvin (R)
7/27MIL [ 3 ]MIA [ 2 ]-1527.56634122Eury Perez (R)
7/21SEA [ 0 ]MIL [ 6 ]10570000000George Kirby (R)
7/12MIL [ 6 ]WSN [ 5 ]-27094.331005222Shinnosuke Ogasawara (L)
4.676.41.22.61.21.61.6
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Mitch Keller F55-9-10 (35.7%)0-3-2 (0%)2-0-0 (100%)3-3-3 (50%)0-3-5 (0%)
Mitch Keller10-14 (41.7%)1-4 (20%)2-0 (100%)5-4 (55.6%)2-6 (25%)
Brandon Woodruff F54-1-1 (80%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)1-0-1 (100%)
Brandon Woodruff6-0 (100%)3-0 (100%)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)2-0 (100%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Mitch Keller F58-13-2 (38.1%)0-4-0 (0%)1-0-1 (100%)5-4-0 (55.6%)2-5-1 (28.6%)
Mitch Keller9-15-0 (37.5%)1-4-0 (20%)1-1-0 (50%)5-4-0 (55.6%)2-6-0 (25%)
Brandon Woodruff F52-3-1 (40%)1-1-1 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-2-0 (0%)
Brandon Woodruff2-4-0 (33.3%)1-2-0 (33.3%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-2-0 (0%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Pirates vs. RHP F536-36-23 (50%)12-7-5 (63.2%)5-1-1 (83.3%)10-9-5 (52.6%)9-17-11 (34.6%)
Pirates vs. RHP42-53 (44.2%)12-12 (50%)3-4 (42.9%)15-9 (62.5%)12-25 (32.4%)
Brewers vs. RHP F542-23-21 (64.6%)15-8-7 (65.2%)5-4-5 (55.6%)4-5-1 (44.4%)16-5-7 (76.2%)
Brewers vs. RHP52-34 (60.5%)21-9 (70%)8-6 (57.1%)5-5 (50%)16-12 (57.1%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Pirates vs. RHP F538-45-8 (45.8%)11-12-0 (47.8%)2-3-2 (40%)11-10-2 (52.4%)13-18-4 (41.9%)
Pirates vs. RHP38-55-2 (40.9%)9-14-1 (39.1%)4-3-0 (57.1%)13-11-0 (54.2%)12-24-1 (33.3%)
Brewers vs. RHP F536-43-4 (45.6%)13-17-0 (43.3%)6-7-1 (46.2%)6-4-0 (60%)9-13-3 (40.9%)
Brewers vs. RHP36-48-2 (42.9%)11-18-1 (37.9%)8-6-0 (57.1%)4-6-0 (40%)12-15-1 (44.4%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Mitch Keller12-12 (50%)0-5 (0%)1-1 (50%)5-4 (55.6%)6-2 (75%)
Pirates61-57 (51.7%)9-18 (33.3%)3-7 (30%)23-11 (67.6%)26-21 (55.3%)
Brandon Woodruff3-3 (50%)0-3 (0%)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)2-0 (100%)
Brewers69-50 (58%)18-25 (41.9%)10-8 (55.6%)9-8 (52.9%)32-9 (78%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Mitch Keller8-16 (33.3%)2-3 (40%)1-1 (50%)1-8 (11.1%)4-4 (50%)
Pirates51-70 (42.1%)9-18 (33.3%)4-6 (40%)16-18 (47.1%)21-26 (44.7%)
Brandon Woodruff3-3 (50%)2-1 (66.7%)1-0 (100%)0-0 (-)0-2 (0%)
Brewers55-68 (44.7%)14-29 (32.6%)12-6 (66.7%)9-8 (52.9%)19-22 (46.3%)


Batting Matchup
PiratesBrewers
121TG119
3.5R/G5.1
84HR127
0.232AVG0.259
90SB130
27CS43
PiratesBrewers
0.113ISO0.147
0.291BABIP0.304
0.303OBP0.331
0.344SLG0.406
0.287wOBA0.323
80wRC+108
PiratesBrewers
8.6BB%8.9
23.4K%20.6
0.37BB/K0.43
7.9Barrel%6.3
40.6HardHit%38.9
3.4WAR22.1

Pitching Matchup
Mitch KellerBrandon Woodruff
24G6
24GS6
137.2IP35.1
5.7IP/G5.9
5W4
10L0
70.8LOB%100
Mitch KellerBrandon Woodruff
7K/911.46
2.42BB/91.53
12.1K/BB%30.2
43.6GB%26
36.5FB%53.2
0.85HR/91.78
8.3HR/FB%17.1
Mitch KellerBrandon Woodruff
0.288BABIP0.143
3.86ERA2.29
4.02xERA2.16
3.69FIP3.73
4.18xFIP2.91
1.23WHIP0.65
4.31SIERA2.6
2.4WAR0.7

Bullpen Matchup
PiratesBrewers
3.1BPU/G3.39
3.6IP/G3.8
25W25
27L17
25SV34
17BS11
70.1LOB%71.3
PiratesBrewers
8.31K/98.64
3.28BB/93.53
13.2K/BB%13.5
42.1GB%44.6
38.6FB%37.4
0.91HR/90.9
9.1HR/FB%9.7
PiratesBrewers
0.284BABIP0.275
4.14ERA3.83
3.82FIP3.79
4.18xFIP4.05
1.26WHIP1.23
3.85SIERA3.79
3.7WAR3.5