Red Sox @ Astros [ Astros -174 / 8 ]

Red Sox | 66-55 (54.5%) Walker Buehler (R) | 7-6 | WHIP: 1.56 | ERA: 5.40
Astros | 67-53 (55.8%) Hunter Brown (R) | 9-5 | WHIP: 0.98 | ERA: 2.51

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Red Sox
Starting Pitcher:
1/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:-1
Est. fair odds: +111 to +124
Implied win prob: 44.64% to 47.39%
Astros
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:1
Est. fair odds: -111 to -124
Implied win prob: 52.61% to 55.36%
Red Sox Situational Notes

Astros Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Red Sox Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
8/15BOS [ 0 ]TBD (-)BOS -
MIA -		-MIA [ 0 ]TBD (-)
8/13HOU [ 0 ]Hunter Brown (R)BOS +146
HOU -174		8BOS [ 0 ]Walker Buehler (R)
8/12HOU [ 1 ]Spencer Arrighetti (R)BOS +102
HOU -108		8.5BOS [ 14 ]Dustin May (R)
8/11HOU [ 7 ]Cristian Javier (R)BOS -174
HOU +136		7.5BOS [ 6 ]Garrett Crochet (L)
8/10SDP [ 6 ]Dylan Cease (R)BOS +120
SDP -152		7.5BOS [ 2 ]Brayan Bello (R)
8/9SDP [ 5 ]Michael King (R)BOS +112
SDP -142		7.5BOS [ 4 ]Lucas Giolito (R)
8/8SDP [ 2 ]Nick Pivetta (R)BOS +146
SDP -174		8BOS [ 10 ]Walker Buehler (R)
8/6BOS [ 3 ]Dustin May (R)BOS -138
KCR +118		9KCR [ 7 ]Michael Wacha (R)
8/5BOS [ 6 ]Garrett Crochet (L)BOS -240
KCR +205		8.5KCR [ 2 ]Ryan Bergert (R)
8/4BOS [ 8 ]Brayan Bello (R)BOS -158
KCR +136		9.5KCR [ 5 ]Bailey Falter (L)
Astros Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
8/15HOU [ 0 ]TBD (-)HOU -
BAL -		-BAL [ 0 ]TBD (-)
8/13HOU [ 0 ]Hunter Brown (R)HOU -174
BOS +146		8BOS [ 0 ]Walker Buehler (R)
8/12HOU [ 1 ]Spencer Arrighetti (R)HOU -120
BOS -108		8.5BOS [ 14 ]Dustin May (R)
8/11HOU [ 7 ]Cristian Javier (R)HOU +146
BOS -162		7.5BOS [ 6 ]Garrett Crochet (L)
8/10NYY [ 1 ]Max Fried (L)HOU +176
NYY -220		9HOU [ 7 ]Jason Alexander (R)
8/9NYY [ 5 ]Luis Gil (R)HOU -106
NYY -110		8.5HOU [ 4 ]Framber Valdez (L)
8/8NYY [ 3 ]Cam Schlittler (R)HOU -100
NYY -118		7.5HOU [ 5 ]Hunter Brown (R)
8/6MIA [ 6 ]Janson Junk (R)HOU -110
MIA -116		8.5HOU [ 4 ]Spencer Arrighetti (R)
8/5MIA [ 3 ]Cal Quantrill (R)HOU -106
MIA -102		8.5HOU [ 7 ]Steven Okert (L)
8/4MIA [ 2 ]Sandy Alcantara (R)HOU -102
MIA -130		8.5HOU [ 8 ]Jason Alexander (R)

Walker Buehler Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/8SDP [ 2 ]BOS [ 10 ]14686424000Nick Pivetta (R)
8/2BOS [ 7 ]HOU [ 3 ]-1129.54.33039133Colton Gordon (L)
7/27BOS [ 4 ]LAD [ 3 ]-106104.67454133Dustin May (R)
7/21PHI [ 3 ]BOS [ 2 ]1808.50000000Zack Wheeler (R)
7/10BOS [ 4 ]TBR [ 3 ]006235233Taj Bradley (R)
4.222.64.40.81.81.8
Hunter Brown Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
8/8NYY [ 3 ]HOU [ 5 ]-1007.55.33514022Cam Schlittler (R)
8/1BOS [ 2 ]HOU [ 1 ]-13687614011Cooper Criswell (R)
7/26HOU [ 1 ]ATH [ 5 ]-1787.55524011Jacob Lopez (L)
7/20SEA [ 3 ]HOU [ 11 ]1206.50000000Bryan Woo (R)
7/13HOU [ 1 ]TEX [ 5 ]000000000Nathan Eovaldi (R)
3.473.20.82.400.80.8
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Walker Buehler F510-9-1 (52.6%)4-2-1 (66.7%)2-1-0 (66.7%)2-0-0 (100%)2-5-0 (28.6%)
Walker Buehler12-8 (60%)6-1 (85.7%)2-1 (66.7%)2-0 (100%)2-5 (28.6%)
Hunter Brown F512-5-6 (70.6%)5-4-0 (55.6%)5-1-3 (83.3%)0-0-1 (-)2-0-2 (100%)
Hunter Brown15-8 (65.2%)5-4 (55.6%)6-3 (66.7%)1-0 (100%)3-1 (75%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Walker Buehler F513-5-1 (72.2%)3-3-1 (50%)3-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)5-1-0 (83.3%)
Walker Buehler9-11-0 (45%)2-5-0 (28.6%)3-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)4-3-0 (57.1%)
Hunter Brown F59-11-2 (45%)3-4-1 (42.9%)3-5-1 (37.5%)1-0-0 (100%)2-2-0 (50%)
Hunter Brown9-13-1 (40.9%)2-7-0 (22.2%)5-4-0 (55.6%)0-1-0 (0%)2-1-1 (66.7%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Red Sox vs. RHP F537-35-14 (51.4%)14-13-8 (51.9%)9-7-3 (56.3%)4-3-0 (57.1%)9-11-3 (45%)
Red Sox vs. RHP46-40 (53.5%)21-14 (60%)10-9 (52.6%)5-2 (71.4%)9-14 (39.1%)
Astros vs. RHP F539-48-14 (44.8%)17-21-2 (44.7%)9-8-4 (52.9%)4-3-1 (57.1%)8-13-7 (38.1%)
Astros vs. RHP54-47 (53.5%)21-19 (52.5%)9-12 (42.9%)7-1 (87.5%)15-13 (53.6%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Red Sox vs. RHP F536-40-5 (47.4%)13-19-2 (40.6%)8-8-1 (50%)4-3-0 (57.1%)11-8-2 (57.9%)
Red Sox vs. RHP41-42-3 (49.4%)16-17-2 (48.5%)10-9-0 (52.6%)2-5-0 (28.6%)11-11-1 (50%)
Astros vs. RHP F547-41-6 (53.4%)20-17-2 (54.1%)9-7-2 (56.3%)4-3-1 (57.1%)13-12-1 (52%)
Astros vs. RHP45-51-5 (46.9%)18-21-1 (46.2%)11-10-0 (52.4%)2-6-0 (25%)12-12-4 (50%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Walker Buehler11-8 (57.9%)3-4 (42.9%)2-1 (66.7%)2-0 (100%)4-3 (57.1%)
Red Sox63-52 (54.8%)21-26 (44.7%)13-12 (52%)8-2 (80%)21-12 (63.6%)
Hunter Brown13-10 (56.5%)3-6 (33.3%)5-4 (55.6%)1-0 (100%)4-0 (100%)
Astros58-58 (50%)16-33 (32.7%)12-17 (41.4%)8-1 (88.9%)22-7 (75.9%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Walker Buehler13-7 (65%)4-3 (57.1%)3-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)4-3 (57.1%)
Red Sox65-55 (54.2%)24-23 (51.1%)11-14 (44%)8-2 (80%)21-12 (63.6%)
Hunter Brown9-14 (39.1%)2-7 (22.2%)5-4 (55.6%)0-1 (0%)2-2 (50%)
Astros56-66 (45.9%)20-29 (40.8%)13-16 (44.8%)6-3 (66.7%)14-15 (48.3%)


Batting Matchup
Red SoxAstros
121TG120
5.1R/G4.3
149HR133
0.254AVG0.259
102SB60
29CS23
Red SoxAstros
0.177ISO0.15
0.307BABIP0.303
0.325OBP0.323
0.431SLG0.408
0.328wOBA0.319
105wRC+104
Red SoxAstros
8.5BB%7.7
23.2K%20.8
0.37BB/K0.37
9.7Barrel%7.7
45.4HardHit%38.1
20.3WAR16.9

Pitching Matchup
Walker BuehlerHunter Brown
20G23
20GS23
100IP136.1
5IP/G5.9
7W9
6L5
73LOB%81.8
Walker BuehlerHunter Brown
6.75K/910.56
4.14BB/92.64
6.4K/BB%22.6
44.8GB%45.8
33.2FB%34.2
1.71HR/90.79
17.9HR/FB%10.8
Walker BuehlerHunter Brown
0.3BABIP0.261
5.4ERA2.51
5.46xERA3
5.72FIP2.89
4.86xFIP2.98
1.56WHIP0.98
4.97SIERA3.13
-0.5WAR3.9

Bullpen Matchup
Red SoxAstros
3.26BPU/G3.13
3.6IP/G3.5
25W25
24L16
32SV35
22BS11
70.9LOB%76.3
Red SoxAstros
8.46K/910.27
3.74BB/93.43
12.3K/BB%18.2
44.1GB%32.5
36.9FB%47.5
0.74HR/91.21
8HR/FB%11
Red SoxAstros
0.276BABIP0.274
3.37ERA3.56
3.74FIP3.84
4.23xFIP3.93
1.26WHIP1.19
3.93SIERA3.39
4.7WAR4.5